2024 Super Bowl Picks: All the 49ers vs Chiefs Bets We've Made
Our betting analysts were active with making their 2024 Super Bowl picks the moment there were odds and props on Sunday night after the 49ers beat the Lions. We already had experts making picks on whether there will be overtime and Anytime Touchdown Scorers.
Here's a list of the bets we've already made, as of Tuesday, Jan. 30, at 2:50 p.m. ET. Be sure to bookmark this post to get every wager we've made with the odds we bet it.
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2024 Super Bowl Picks
By Billy Ward
You can make this pick at either BetMGM (Return +250) or DraftKings (Opening Kick Touchdown: No +245). At BetMGM, find the pick at "The Big Game Early Outcomes" and under "Opening Kickoff Outcome." At DraftKings, it's under the "1st of Game" tab.
Assuming there's nothing that makes either the first kickoff, or kickoffs in the Super Bowl different than any others, this is a mispriced line.
The 49ers Jake Moody recorded touchbacks on just 60% of his kickoffs this season, while Harrison Butker of the Chiefs was right around 70%. The +250 odds on this prop work out to a 72% chance of a touchback, higher than either kicker's rate. Given that either kicker is roughly equally likely to kick the opening kickoff, the true odds should be around 65%, or +185 on the no.
Of course, both kickers have outdoor home stadiums and this game is in a dome. In theory, indoor game should raise touchback rates since there's no issues with wind/rain/etc. to limit their distance. However, Moody's rate was actually lower (50%) while indoors, though Butker's went up to 89% this season.
Even assuming the indoor rates are more predictive — which is unlikely given the small sample size — that still averages out to around 70% implied, enough for a slight edge.
By Matt Trebby
I bet Kelce to score a touchdown last year in the Super Bowl at +125. He opened at +110, but he’s still available at +100 as of this writing at 12:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Jan. 30.
Since Patrick Mahomes took over as the Chiefs quarterback before the 2018 season, Kelce has scored a touchdown in 13 of 17 playoff games. Over the last three postseasons, he has scored in eight out of the Chiefs’ nine playoff games.
If you want to get more specific, Kelce has scored in two of his three Super Bowl appearances.
So a bet at -110 or better for Kelce to score a touchdown, I would endorse. Let’s get more specific, though.
If you want to find a different way to back Kelce, the first touchdown market might be a way to go, whether it’s for the game or just on the Chiefs.
Over the last two postseasons, Kelce has scored the first touchdown in three of the Chiefs’ six games. More specifically, he has scored the Chiefs’ first touchdown in five of those six games.
You can get Kelce first TD scorer at +800 and to be the Chiefs’ first touchdown scorer at +340 (both at FanDuel). I’d personally endorse the +340 over the 8-1 bet.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
By Nick Giffen
My model has fair odds for overtime in the Super Bowl at around +1250, but accounting for confidence intervals in the model, I would only play this down to +1450. That said, the model technically shows plus-expected value (EV) on this bet to +1250 using its midpoint.
The Chiefs and 49ers rarely go for 2-point conversions — the 49ers have attempted none and Kansas City has attempted just one.
Kickers Jake Moody and Harrison Butker have combined to make 106-of-107 extra points, so this game is extremely likely to stay on field goal and touchdown (with extra point) intervals, barring a safety.
Add in the domed environment, which eliminates wind and rain from impacting kicking, and we are at a situation where overtime is a distinct possibility given both teams' ability to put up points, not to mention the close spread.
I bet this at open at +1550 at FanDuel. While there's no longer value in the current line (+1100), I'd bet it if it climbs back above +1450.
Samuel had 12 touchdowns this season (a career-high seven receiving and five rushing) despite missing two games. He's the ultimate gadget player who's a top-five impact playmaker in the NFL when healthy. He looked the part in the NFC Championship Game against the Lions despite nursing a shoulder injury.
Against Detroit, Samuel had 11 touches (eight catches for 89 yards and three carries for seven yards) but didn't score at +125. Now, his odds are up to +180 against a Chiefs team that is much weaker against the run than the Lions were.
For historical context, Samuel hasn't been above +160 in this market since the 49ers' Week 1 win over the Steelers. He didn't score in that game since he wasn't needed much in a 31-7 win.
Now, Samuel gets two weeks to heal his shoulder and head coach Kyle Shanahan gets two weeks to figure out how he will use his playmaking receiver.
For reference, WR Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittle have thrived against man coverage this season. The Chiefs, though, have only allowed 19 passing touchdowns this season, with 11 going to wide receivers and four to tight ends. Samuel isn't some chopped liver against man coverage, with two receiving touchdowns against that defense this season.
Samuel is also one of the only players who isn't a quarterback who I endorse to bet for Super Bowl MVP because of his yards-after-catch ability. He can make something happen on his own and is a threat from anywhere on the field, which is why I like him in this market.
This is one of the few 49ers touchdown props I'd endorse based on the current odds since I anticipate Samuel's number in this market will go down before kickoff on Feb. 11.
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