Last year's Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl closed with a total of 48, and that number never stood a chance. Both offenses came out and thrived, with Jalen Hurts almost singlehandedly bringing the Lombardi Trophy back to Philadelphia.
Now, the 2024 Super Bowl Over/Under has settled at 47.5 after flirting with 47 for a bit. Let's break down which side of that we should be on.
Find out how NFL expert Anthony Dabbundo is betting on the Super Bowl moneyline and game total over/under in his 49ers vs Chiefs preview.
2024 Super Bowl Over/Under: How To Bet 49ers-Chiefs Total
The whole “life’s too short to bet the under” crowd will surely be disappointed, but there are significant trends that point toward backing the under, especially when it comes to the Chiefs.
The under has been an easy bet this season for Kansas City, which has gone 14-6 to the under, including the postseason. It hit 12 times in the regular season, which was tied with the Panthers and Chargers for most in the league.
This 47.5 number is especially tasty, too. Only four Chiefs games this season have exceeded this threshold, and two of them barely crossed this mark, finishing with 48 points.
Meanwhile, for what it’s worth, the Chiefs are listed as the home team for Super Bowl. If we want to find a way for that to help our case, Patrick Mahomes is 37-22-1 to the under at home over his career. The under’s 17-3 home over the past two seasons, which is the most profitable of any quarterback over that span.
Now, let's be more realistic since this is, of course, a neutral-site game in Las Vegas. It’ll be the fifth time that Mahomes plays on a neutral field, and the under is 3-1 in his previous four. The lone time the over cashed came in last year’s Super Bowl win over the Eagles.
Speaking of the Super Bowl, the under is 11-8 dating back to 2004 and 4-1 over the past five seasons. It had hit in four straight before the Chiefs edged the Eagles in last year’s high-flying affair.
However, this year’s Chiefs defense is a far cry from last year’s porous unit. Additionally, while the offense has impressed in the postseason, it’s still less potent than we’re accustomed to seeing.
Everyone wants to see a high-scoring Super Bowl. However, there are too many signs pointing in the opposite direction, so it shouldn’t be much of a surprise that the big money’s pouring in on the under. I’m playing the trends and doing the same, especially since this 47.5-point number seems like a tipping point when it comes to betting Chiefs’ totals.
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