My Super Bowl predictions boil down to a few things.
My take on the spread is simple: The 49ers are probably the better team, but I'm not sure it's enough of an edge to bet against Patrick Mahomes. For the total, it depends on how Kansas City starts the game.
Let's get into both topics below.
2024 Super Bowl Predictions for Point Spread & Over/Under
Super Bowl Point Spread
My raw number for this game is San Francisco -2.8, so I show a tiny bit of value on San Francisco, but not enough to back the 49ers for the full game.
However, I did bet the first half moneyline at -120. Why did I choose this route? Well, I think the 49ers offense will have success early on with Christian McCaffrey and play action. Additionally, there are three key factors that could work in Kansas City's favor in the second half.
Defensive adjustments. Steve Spagnuolo has a decided edge when it comes to possible second-half adjustments over Steve Wilks.
The Patrick Mahomes factor. How can you not trust the greatness and experience of Mahomes over Brock Purdy if this game is close late? Mahomes is an incredible 14-3 in the postseason with 39 touchdowns to just seven interceptions. Those three losses came at the hands of Tom Brady (twice) and Joe Burrow, with only one coming in regulation to Brady in the Super Bowl.
Special Teams. If the game is tight late, you have to favor Harrison Butker making a clutch kick over Jake Moody. That could make all the difference in the fourth quarter of a close game.
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For those reasons, I'll be looking to back the Chiefs live at some point if the 49ers build a lead in the first half (based on how the game is playing out). That said, I wouldn't blame anybody for simply taking the points with the best quarterback on the planet against Purdy, who has yet to even start two full seasons' worth of games.
As I'm sure you've heard ad nauseam by now, Mahomes is 10-1-1 ATS (and 9-3 SU) as an underdog, making him the most profitable of any qualified quarterback catching points in the Super Bowl era.
However, I just can't get there from a pure projections standpoint. I think there has been a bit of an overreaction to Kansas City's recent offensive surge and San Francisco's defensive struggles. I still have to value my numbers for the entire season, which just can't get me to a full game bet on the Chiefs at under a field goal, even after making slight postseason performance adjustments.
Super Bowl Over/Under
I think the total for the Super Bowl is spot on as I project it right around 48.
While I think both offenses have clear paths to success on a fast track, the clock should move rapidly. The 49ers are one of the slowest teams in the league, ranking 31st in Situation Neutral Pace. While the Chiefs work with a bit more pace (8th in Situation Neutral Pace), they have morphed into a methodical offense that relies on a short-passing attack. They also have gone extra conservative with a lead in the second half.
With the matchup advantages on the ground, I expect both teams to lean heavily on their respective run games, which should speed the game clock up even more. You also have a pair of coaches who tend to be a bit more on the conservative side when it comes to field goal and fourth-down decisions.
For what it's worth, since the turn of the century, Super Bowls have started slow and finished fast. While it's not the largest data set, and it's also heavily influenced by one team over that span (Patriots), I will closely monitor the live total odds for a potential opportunity to jump in on an over bet based on what I'm seeing, especially if Kansas City is playing from behind.
It is a bit scary to think about a live over if the Chiefs are leading based on how those games have played out this season. Believe it or not, second-half unders are a remarkable 18-2 in Chiefs games this season (playoffs included).
