We're almost there, with the 49ers looking to keep Patrick Mahomes away from his third Lombardi Trophy in five seasons.
This matchup is full of intriguing battles in all three phases. The Chiefs defense is playing as well as it has in the Mahomes era, while the offense has changed its identity. Then, there's a big edge in the kicking game for Kansas City.
Check out my 2024 Super Bowl preview below, which goes into all three phases of this matchup.
Find out how NFL expert Anthony Dabbundo is betting on the Super Bowl moneyline and game total over/under in his 49ers vs Chiefs preview.
2024 Super Bowl Preview: 49ers-Chiefs Breakdown of All 3 Phases
Chiefs Offense vs. 49ers Defense
The Kansas City offense struggled during the regular season much more than we have become accustomed to seeing in the Patrick Mahomes era. It was still a top-10 offense, but not in the same elite stratosphere as years past.
The Chiefs' wide receiver room isn't great outside of Rashee Rice, and Travis Kelce showed his age at times. Plus, while the interior of the offensive line is among the league's best, both offensive tackles had issues in protection and with penalties. Per PFF, out of 81 qualified tackles, Jawaan Taylor and Donovan Smith finished 73rd and 61st, respectively, with the former leading all offensive linemen with a whopping 24 penalties (postseason included).
That said, the offense has looked much better in the postseason. So, what has changed? They have cut out all of the fat by trimming the rotation, while also giving Patrick Mahomes more freedom at the line of scrimmage. Kelce appears to have extra juice, potentially benefiting from rest in Week 18. The two weeks in between the Conference Championship Round and Super Bowl certainly won't hurt in that department.
It's worth mentioning that Kansas City did get a bit unlucky during the regular season with turnovers, drops and penalties, especially in regards to when and where those occurred on the field. There was certainly looming positive regression that the Chiefs have finally benefited from at just the right time.
However, there are usually two sides to every story, especially when dealing with small sample sizes.
The Chiefs undoubtedly benefited from first facing a Dolphins defense decimated by injuries and then caught a break by getting a Bills bunch (on a short week) that had numerous injuries at linebacker and defensive back. And while Mahomes looked spectacular early against Baltimore, the Chiefs offense was completely shut down over their final eight drives. Now, you can argue they went a bit more conservative with a lead, but the Ravens still had multiple chances to pull that game out if not for red-zone turnovers, so I don't believe they just completely parked the bus.
Where is the truth? That's difficult to pinpoint, but the answer likely lies somewhere in the middle of the two extreme narratives that the Chiefs offense was broken during the regular season and is now completely fixed in the playoffs. They certainly have personnel gaps but have made material changes that have led to a substantial reduction in mistakes, which killed them throughout the regular season.
Mahomes doesn't have a single turnover-worthy throw in three postseason games and owns a current NFL-record streak of six consecutive playoff games without an interception (minimum 20 attempts in each). Kansas City has morphed into a much more methodical offense that relies more on the run game with Isaiah Pacheco and Mahomes taking what the defense gives him underneath.
So, can Kansas City's offense have success against the 49ers defense?
If we exclude the Week 18 game against the Rams where both teams rested starters, the 49ers finished 8th in EPA per play on defense. They excelled against the pass (4th in EPA per Play and DVOA), especially after making a few changes in the secondary after their Week 9 bye when they removed Isaiah Oliver from the slot, replacing him with Deommodore Lenoir, who has served as an upgrade.
Ex-Chief Charvarius Ward is a lockdown corner who almost always lines up on the left side, while Ambry Thomas usually gets the other wide spot and is much more vulnerable. Kansas City may look to take advantage of Thomas' coverage deficiencies by moving Rashee Rice, who generally plays all over the field, outside to the right at a higher frequency, which certainly gives him appeal from a player props perspective in this refined Kansas City offense.
Every defense mixes up their coverages, but San Francisco comes in on the high end in terms of Cover 3 and quarters coverages. The 49ers rarely blitz (third-lowest rate in the league), which is a positive against the blitz kryptonite that is Mahomes.
San Francisco will rely heavily on its front four to generate pressure. Running zone against Mahomes, who absolutely shredded this San Francisco defense last season, isn't an ideal approach. Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks isn't known for his prowess in terms of adjustments, which could spell trouble against Mahomes and Andy Reid. He could potentially go with more man coverage as he did in the second half against Detroit, but this defense is built on zone principles.
While San Francisco has more often than not passed the test against opposing quarterbacks — albeit against a fairly weak schedule of opposing signal-callers — it has struggled mightily to slow down opposing ground games (25th in EPA per play and 15th DVOA), which was evident in both of its postseason victories. San Francisco specifically struggles to defend outside runs with Chase Young consistently a repeat offender in failing to set an adequate edge. Even Nick Bosa fails in that department at times.
San Francisco's elite linebacker duo of Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw (with the help of safety Tashaun Gipson Sr.) help clean up a lot of stuff up in the middle since the interior SF defensive line also struggles at times against the run, but there's only so much they can do on the outside. The 49ers also miss Talanoa Hufanga in run support (and his pass-rushing prowess) from the safety position.
To wit, San Francisco ranks in the top five against runs between the tackles, but bottom five on outside runs. Look for Reid and company to try to get Pacheco and potentially some others going in the run game with a heavier focus on getting to the edge.
Those 49ers linebackers, who play a bit further back than most, are also elite in coverage. That's noteworthy against a Chiefs offense that likes to utilize the middle of the field, where Kelce does most of his damage. Not surprisingly, San Francisco finished 1st overall (DVOA) in coverage over the middle of the field, in addition to fourth against both tight ends and short passes. That's an important note against a now much more conservative Chiefs offense that threw 21 passes under five yards against Baltimore, including eight screens.
Ultimately, this matchup will come down to whether San Francisco can at least contain Pacheco a bit on outside runs. If so, that will force Mahomes into known passing situations against a zone-heavy defense. If that's the case, this winner of the battle on this side of the ball will likely come down to whether the San Francisco front four can get pressure on Mahomes. Young and Bosa must take advantage of Kansas City's tackles, while Javon Hargrave and Arik Armstead have to create havoc up the middle against a stout Chiefs interior that will likely be without star guard Joe Thuney.
And even if they can apply constant pressure, Mahomes can always turn water into wine on any given play.
From a props perspective, I'd target some Rice upside (maybe even an MVP dart) and fade Kelce. I know the latter is scary given his pristine playoff pedigree, but San Francisco really does match up well with tight ends and is tremendous in coverage over the middle of the field. Plus, Kelce's prices should continue to get inflated as we approach kickoff, so I'd definitely suggest waiting to fire on any unders.
49ers Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
While there is more uncertainty in regards to the current form of both the Chiefs offense and 49ers defense, the picture is a little bit clearer on the other side of the ball.
San Francisco had a historically dominant offense that finished No. 1 overall in DVOA (by a wide margin) — which adjusts for opponent — thanks to the top-ranked passing offense and second-best rushing attack. From another viewpoint, even if we include Week 18 when the 49ers sat key starters, and other games with key injuries, San Francisco finished No. 1 in both EPA per play and Success Rate, sweeping the board with the league's top Dropback EPA, Dropback Success Rate, Rush EPA and Rush Success Rate.
They were dominant all year under second-year starting quarterback Brock Purdy, who obviously benefits from a bevy of dangerous skill-position players and the guidance of head coach Kyle Shanahan. If there is one weakness, it would have to be along the offensive line outside of star left tackle Trent Williams.
Jake Brendel is a league-average center. He is flanked by veteran Jon Feliciano, who has played well after taking the reigns at right guard from second-year man Spencer Burford, and Aaron Banks, who is the weakest link up front with PFF ranking the former Notre Dame product 53rd out of 79 qualified guards in 2023.
All three of them struggled in pass protection at times, which could spell trouble against Chris Jones. Speaking of Jones, he had two sacks in last season's game while lining up outside against Mike McGlinchey. Well, now Jones has an even more favorable matchup against Colton McKivitz, who graded out below average this season after allowing 47 pressures and nine sacks.
Niners allowed 18 pressures vs the Vikings, per PFF
Colton McKivitz allowed 6 of them to go along with this sack pic.twitter.com/jKL5ZKwo18
— Coach Yac 🗣 (@Coach_Yac) October 24, 2023
Shanahan's brilliant scheme and the overwhelming skill-position talent can usually hide the weaknesses up front, but will that be the case against the Chiefs?
Kansas City's defensive improvement was one of the main storylines of the NFL season. After being an afterthought for many seasons, it carried the Chiefs for long stretches and finished in the top two in points allowed, pressure rate and sacks. In fact, the Chiefs became the first team in NFL history to not allow an opponent to go over 27 points over a 20-game stretch in a single season. Meanwhile, when fully healthy, the 49ers offense reached at least 27 points in 13-of-15 contests. Something has to give.
Kansas City's overwhelming strength on defense is against the pass, where it ranks in the top three in both Dropback EPA and Success Rate. Cornerbacks L'Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie lead a very strong coverage group that has received a recent boost from rookie safety Chamarri Conner.
McDuffie and fellow corner Jaylen Watson are effective blitzers in Steve Spagnuolo's scheme. It will be interesting to see how often and what types of blitzes the brilliant Spagnuolo decides to bring against a San Francisco offense that uses as many condensed formations as any team in the league. During the season, Kansas City was one of seven teams that blitzed on at least a third of downs.
It's worth noting Purdy thrived against the blitz this season, finishing first among all quarterbacks in yards per attempt, passer rating and Pass EPA — all while accumulating a 15:2 TD:INT ratio and a near 70% completion percentage.
However, he didn't face a complex defense like Kansas City's every week. Purdy struggled the most against the best (and most complex) defenses he faced, but he also didn't have a fully healthy Williams and Deebo Samuel for a number of those matchups. That certainly muddies the water when evaluating those performances, but I'm sure Spagnuolo spent a lot of time evaluating some of the effective things Brian Flores did with his Minnesota defense against Purdy.
While the Chiefs have dominated all season in coverage (especially against No. 1 wide receivers) thanks to Spagnuolo, a superb cornerback corps and constant pressure, they do have some glaring weaknesses.
First and foremost, Kansas City struggled to defend the run, finishing 27th in DVOA and 28th in Rush EPA, in large part due to a defensive line that can get pushed back, as evidenced by a ranking of 25th in Line Yards.
That could spell doom against Christian McCaffrey, who spearheads one of the league's premier rushing attacks. Even more troubling is the specific types of runs Kansas City struggled to stop, namely power and zone, where they rank as a bottom-five group.
Unlike Todd Monken, I'm fully confident Shanahan won't abandon the run game — although trailing against the league's greatest quarterbacks in the postseason has historically made countless teams go into panic mode. I just can't see Shanahan not sticking to his guns as he's always done.
I envision San Francisco, which uses zone runs more than any team in the league, to feed McCaffrey early and often while mixing in some carries for the electric Samuel. The 49ers will likely use a decent chunk of heavier personnel packages and utilize play-action on early downs, which the Ravens bizarrely decided to shy away from against a Kansas City pass defense that goes from a top-five unit without play-action to 28th in Success Rate and 20th in EPA with it. As you might expect, San Francisco was almost unstoppable when using play-action this season.
The matchup on this side of the ball will likely come down to how much success the 49ers have on early-down runs and play-action passes. Keeping Purdy out of third-and-long situations should be Shanahan's primary focus since the Chiefs defense is at their peak on known passing downs. That's when Spagnuolo shines with his unique pressure packages, which could ultimately lead to key mistakes from the still very inexperienced Purdy.
I expect San Francisco to have success early on in this game, especially with scripted plays. Seeing Baltimore's disastrous game plan should only serve as a reinforcement of what not to do against the Chiefs defense.
However, don't give up on the Kansas City defense if it is getting gashed early. Nobody is better at in-game and second-half adjustments than Spagnuolo. It's not a coincidence that Kansas City has allowed a total of 10 points in the second half of its three playoff games and a ridiculous average of just four second-half points over its last eight games.
From a props perspective, I like Elijah Mitchell to go under 1.5 rush attempts. I think of it as a bet against McCaffrey getting injured at any point. Mitchell got four carries against Detroit, but those came at the very end of the game after McCaffrey hurt his neck. Up until that point, McCaffrey received 100% of San Francisco's postseason running back carries.
This is the Super Bowl, so I fully expect Shanahan to ride almost exclusively with McCaffrey and a few sprinkles of Samuel. Both should get plenty of short passes as an extension of the running game against a Chiefs defense that ranked 21st in coverage against opposing running backs.
I also don't mind going under 12.5 rushing yards on Purdy. I believe this number is a bit inflated due to recency bias after he ran for 62 yards on 11 carries in San Francisco's two playoff victories.
Prior to this postseason, Purdy had gone under 12.5 rushing yards in 20 of his first 25 career starts, including the postseason. In those 25 games, if you remove 17 kneel-downs for -17 yards, he had 51 attempts for 198 yards for an average of approximately two attempts for eight yards. His scramble rate goes up a bit for quarterbacks in the postseason, but this number is still a bit too high in my eyes.
Special Teams
While it's not as important as offense or defense, the often-forgotten about third phase of the game decides plenty of NFL outcomes.
Solely focusing on past Super Bowls, let's take a trip down memory lane to highlight some of the most impactful special teams plays:
- Super Bowl XLVII: Jacoby Jones' 108-yard kick return in a three-point win over the 49ers.
- Super Bowl XXXVI, Super Bowl XXXVIII: Two game-winning, 40-plus-yard field goals by Patriots kicker Adam Vinatieri.
- Super Bowl XXXI: Desmond Howard returning a kick 99 yards for a touchdown after the Patriots had cut the Packers' lead to 27-21. Howard, who would go on to win MVP, finished with a Super Bowl-record 244 total return yards.
- Super Bowl XXV: The infamous Scott Norwood 47-yard, wide-right miss on a game-winning field goal attempt that would have given the Bills their first Super Bowl victory.
Just last year, Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker kicked the game-winning field goal in Super Bowl 57. That's a good place to start, as it's where the Chiefs have the biggest edge in the special teams department.
Butker, the second-most accurate kicker in NFL history behind only Justin Tucker (among qualified kickers), is one of the most experienced and reliable kickers in the league. Butker finished the regular season 33-for-35 on field-goal attempts with no missed extra points (38-38).
Conversely, the 49ers are relying on rookie Jake Moody, who wasn't the most reliable kicker this season. During the regular season, he only made 84% of his field-goal attempts (21-for-25) and missed one extra point (60-for-61). Even worse, he's missed two field goals in the postseason (3-for-5), which could impact his confidence on the biggest stage.
Both kickers have big legs, so I don't hate looking at some long field goal props (I played over 47.5 longest field goal) in friendly kicking conditions indoors with a bit of altitude. The same goes for punting props in this venue.
Overall, the Chiefs clearly have a superior special teams unit despite facing worse aggregate weather during the season. From a DVOA perspective, they rank sixth overall while the 49ers come in at 25th. Breaking that out by specific category:
| Stat | 49ers | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| FG/XP | 19th | 2nd |
| Kickoff | 30th | 5th |
| Kick Return | 19th | 18th |
| Punt | 10th | 12th |
| Punt Return | 29th | 19th |
I don't expect to see many kick returns in this game, but the Chiefs would have the edge in both return games. I bet on Richie James to have more punt return yards than Ray-Ray McCloud III, who I think will have to deal with higher punts and simply look to fair catch as often as possible.
I'll be interested to see if either team uses a non-traditional returner at any point — someone like Deebo Samuel in a key moment — but the Chiefs have the edge when it comes to special teams, especially at kicker, which could ultimately decide a game priced close to a coin flip.
