The Chiefs offense struggled much more during the regular season than we have become accustomed to seeing in the Patrick Mahomes era. It was still a top-10 offense, but not in the same elite stratosphere as years past. The wide receiver room isn't great outside of Rashee Rice, while Travis Kelce has showed his age at times.
Plus, while the interior of the offensive line is among the league's best, both offensive tackles had issues in protection and with penalties. Per PFF, out of 81 qualified tackles, Jawaan Taylor and Donovan Smith finished 73rd and 61st, respectively, with the former leading all offensive linemen with a whopping 24 penalties, including the postseason.
Let's get into my 2024 Super Bowl preview and take a look at how the Chiefs offense matches up against the 49ers defense.
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2024 Super Bowl Preview: Chiefs Offense vs 49ers Defense
The Kansas City offense struggled during the regular season much more than we have become accustomed to seeing in the Patrick Mahomes era. It was still a top-10 offense, but not in the same elite stratosphere as years past.
The Chiefs' wide receiver room isn't great outside of Rashee Rice, and Travis Kelce showed his age at times. Plus, while the interior of the offensive line is among the league's best, both offensive tackles had issues in protection and with penalties. Per PFF, out of 81 qualified tackles, Jawaan Taylor and Donovan Smith finished 73rd and 61st, respectively, with the former leading all offensive linemen with a whopping 24 penalties (postseason included).
That said, the offense has looked much better in the postseason. So, what has changed? They have cut out all of the fat by trimming the rotation, while also giving Patrick Mahomes more freedom at the line of scrimmage. Kelce appears to have extra juice, potentially benefiting from rest in Week 18. The two weeks in between the Conference Championship Round and Super Bowl certainly won't hurt in that department.
It's worth mentioning that Kansas City did get a bit unlucky during the regular season with turnovers, drops and penalties, especially in regards to when and where those occurred on the field. There was certainly looming positive regression that the Chiefs have finally benefited from at just the right time.
However, there are usually two sides to every story, especially when dealing with small sample sizes.
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The Chiefs undoubtedly benefited from first facing a Dolphins defense decimated by injuries and then caught a break by getting a Bills bunch (on a short week) that had numerous injuries at linebacker and defensive back. And while Mahomes looked spectacular early against Baltimore, the Chiefs offense was completely shut down over their final eight drives. Now, you can argue they went a bit more conservative with a lead, but the Ravens still had multiple chances to pull that game out if not for red-zone turnovers, so I don't believe they just completely parked the bus.
Where is the truth? That's difficult to pinpoint, but the answer likely lies somewhere in the middle of the two extreme narratives that the Chiefs offense was broken during the regular season and is now completely fixed in the playoffs. They certainly have personnel gaps but have made material changes that have led to a substantial reduction in mistakes, which killed them throughout the regular season.
Mahomes doesn't have a single turnover-worthy throw in three postseason games and owns a current NFL-record streak of six consecutive playoff games without an interception (minimum 20 attempts in each). Kansas City has morphed into a much more methodical offense that relies more on the run game with Isaiah Pacheco and Mahomes taking what the defense gives him underneath.
So, can Kansas City's offense have success against the 49ers defense?
If we exclude the Week 18 game against the Rams where both teams rested starters, the 49ers finished 8th in EPA per play on defense. They excelled against the pass (4th in EPA per Play and DVOA), especially after making a few changes in the secondary after their Week 9 bye when they removed Isaiah Oliver from the slot, replacing him with Deommodore Lenoir, who has served as an upgrade.
Ex-Chief Charvarius Ward is a lockdown corner who almost always lines up on the left side, while Ambry Thomas usually gets the other wide spot and is much more vulnerable. Kansas City may look to take advantage of Thomas' coverage deficiencies by moving Rashee Rice, who generally plays all over the field, outside to the right at a higher frequency, which certainly gives him appeal from a player props perspective in this refined Kansas City offense.
Every defense mixes up their coverages, but San Francisco comes in on the high end in terms of Cover 3 and quarters coverages. The 49ers rarely blitz (third-lowest rate in the league), which is a positive against the blitz kryptonite that is Mahomes.
San Francisco will rely heavily on its front four to generate pressure. Running zone against Mahomes, who absolutely shredded this San Francisco defense last season, isn't an ideal approach. Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks isn't known for his prowess in terms of adjustments, which could spell trouble against Mahomes and Andy Reid. He could potentially go with more man coverage as he did in the second half against Detroit, but this defense is built on zone principles.
While San Francisco has more often than not passed the test against opposing quarterbacks — albeit against a fairly weak schedule of opposing signal-callers — it has struggled mightily to slow down opposing ground games (25th in EPA per play and 15th DVOA), which was evident in both of its postseason victories. San Francisco specifically struggles to defend outside runs with Chase Young consistently a repeat offender in failing to set an adequate edge. Even Nick Bosa fails in that department at times.
San Francisco's elite linebacker duo of Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw (with the help of safety Tashaun Gipson Sr.) help clean up a lot of stuff up in the middle since the interior SF defensive line also struggles at times against the run, but there's only so much they can do on the outside. The 49ers also miss Talanoa Hufanga in run support (and his pass-rushing prowess) from the safety position.
To wit, San Francisco ranks in the top five against runs between the tackles, but bottom five on outside runs. Look for Reid and company to try to get Pacheco and potentially some others going in the run game with a heavier focus on getting to the edge.
Those 49ers linebackers, who play a bit further back than most, are also elite in coverage. That's noteworthy against a Chiefs offense that likes to utilize the middle of the field, where Kelce does most of his damage. Not surprisingly, San Francisco finished 1st overall (DVOA) in coverage over the middle of the field, in addition to fourth against both tight ends and short passes. That's an important note against a now much more conservative Chiefs offense that threw 21 passes under five yards against Baltimore, including eight screens.
Ultimately, this matchup will come down to whether San Francisco can at least contain Pacheco a bit on outside runs. If so, that will force Mahomes into known passing situations against a zone-heavy defense. If that's the case, this winner of the battle on this side of the ball will likely come down to whether the San Francisco front four can get pressure on Mahomes. Young and Bosa must take advantage of Kansas City's tackles, while Javon Hargrave and Arik Armstead have to create havoc up the middle against a stout Chiefs interior that will likely be without star guard Joe Thuney.
And even if they can apply constant pressure, Mahomes can always turn water into wine on any given play.
From a props perspective, I'd target some Rice upside (maybe even an MVP dart) and fade Kelce. I know the latter is scary given his pristine playoff pedigree, but San Francisco really does match up well with tight ends and is tremendous in coverage over the middle of the field. Plus, Kelce's prices should continue to get inflated as we approach kickoff, so I'd definitely suggest waiting to fire on any unders.
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