While it's not as important as offense or defense, the often forgotten about third phase of the game decides plenty of NFL outcomes.
Let's get into my 2024 Super Bowl preview from a special teams perspective and identify which team has the edge in the critical third phase of this matchup.
Find countless Super Bowl predictions and picks in the three stories below!
2024 Super Bowl Preview: Who Has the Special Teams Edge?
While it's not as important as offense or defense, the often-forgotten about third phase of the game decides plenty of NFL outcomes.
Solely focusing on past Super Bowls, let's take a trip down memory lane to highlight some of the most impactful special teams plays:
- Super Bowl XLVII: Jacoby Jones' 108-yard kick return in a three-point win over the 49ers.
- Super Bowl XXXVI, Super Bowl XXXVIII: Two game-winning, 40-plus-yard field goals by Patriots kicker Adam Vinatieri.
- Super Bowl XXXI: Desmond Howard returning a kick 99 yards for a touchdown after the Patriots had cut the Packers' lead to 27-21. Howard, who would go on to win MVP, finished with a Super Bowl-record 244 total return yards.
- Super Bowl XXV: The infamous Scott Norwood 47-yard, wide-right miss on a game-winning field goal attempt that would have given the Bills their first Super Bowl victory.
Just last year, Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker kicked the game-winning field goal in Super Bowl 57. That's a good place to start, as it's where the Chiefs have the biggest edge in the special teams department.
Butker, the second-most accurate kicker in NFL history behind only Justin Tucker (among qualified kickers), is one of the most experienced and reliable kickers in the league. Butker finished the regular season 33-for-35 on field-goal attempts with no missed extra points (38-38).
Conversely, the 49ers are relying on rookie Jake Moody, who wasn't the most reliable kicker this season. During the regular season, he only made 84% of his field-goal attempts (21-for-25) and missed one extra point (60-for-61). Even worse, he's missed two field goals in the postseason (3-for-5), which could impact his confidence on the biggest stage.
Both kickers have big legs, so I don't hate looking at some long field goal props (I played over 47.5 longest field goal) in friendly kicking conditions indoors with a bit of altitude. The same goes for punting props in this venue.
Overall, the Chiefs clearly have a superior special teams unit despite facing worse aggregate weather during the season. From a DVOA perspective, they rank sixth overall while the 49ers come in at 25th. Breaking that out by specific category:
| Stat | 49ers | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| FG/XP | 19th | 2nd |
| Kickoff | 30th | 5th |
| Kick Return | 19th | 18th |
| Punt | 10th | 12th |
| Punt Return | 29th | 19th |
I don't expect to see many kick returns in this game, but the Chiefs would have the edge in both return games. I bet on Richie James to have more punt return yards than Ray-Ray McCloud III, who I think will have to deal with higher punts and simply look to fair catch as often as possible.
I'll be interested to see if either team uses a non-traditional returner at any point — someone like Deebo Samuel in a key moment — but the Chiefs have the edge when it comes to special teams, especially at kicker, which could ultimately decide a game priced close to a coin flip.
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