The NFL Draft has become a big event for bettors, mostly because people enjoy betting on the NFL and this is the only event to do that until the Hall of Fame Game in early August.
This event, though, has the least amount of intel to go off. There are more mock drafts on the internet than people know what to do with, and there's a lot of sourced intel in there from scouts and coaches. Those people, though, don't know what's going on in every other building in the NFL.
The betting markets are usually on top of all the buzz. With that, it's a good resource to see what the expectations are entering the first round. So, as of 11:50 a.m. ET, here is a mock draft of the top-10 picks using the betting odds at DraftKings.
It's no shocker that Cam Ward is such a heavy favorite at the top. After a stellar college career at Washington State and Miami (FL), the Titans appear set to take Ward as the best quarterback available in the draft.
Is Ward the best player? Probably not. The consensus top two players in this draft are going to go Nos. 2 and 3.
Travis Hunter has All-Pro potential at two positions, and it sounds like he's hellbent on playing both cornerback and wide receiver.
For a Browns organization that already has a premier edge rusher in Myles Garrett and is in dire need of talent on both sides of the ball, Hunter is the logical pick over Abdul Carter since he can help both offensively and defensively.
A lot of "big boards" and mock drafts have Abdul Carter ranked as the best player in this draft class. The Giants need talent all over the field, like the Browns, and getting a player like Carter will be a huge boost.
Carter will join a pass-rushing unit that already consists of Kayvon Thibodeaux and Brian Burns, so the Giants will be set up front for the foreseeable future.
The Patriots' top priority this offseason is to set Drake Maye up for success. What better way to do that than draft their left tackle of the future?
Will Campbell is a heavy betting favorite, and RB Ashton Jeanty is the only other player below +1200. Either player would be a good pick to boost the Patriots' offense, but the offensive line was a major concern last season.
Keeping Maye upright will be a big step forward for New England.
Now, things get interesting.
Jeanty is the favorite followed by DL Mason Graham (+500) and Tet McMillan (+600). Graham was the logical pick for most mocks early in the draft process, but the intel over the past week has been that the Jaguars will be aggressive in putting Trevor Lawrence in a better position to succeed.
The top offensive lineman (Campbell) will be off the board, and OTs Armand Membou and Kelvin Banks Jr. are both +1800.
The other way to improve the offense is by adding a dynamic playmaker.
WR Brian Thomas Jr. looks like an elite receiver, but Jacksonville lost TE Evan Engram in free agency, and RB Travis Etienne took a major step backward last season and is entering the final year of his rookie contract.
Jeanty would make sense here. Drafting a running back who you can feed heavily for the next five years is hugely appealing, as is adding a big-bodied receiver like McMillan to play alongside Thomas.
The Jeanty hype train, though, has betting markets thinking he’ll be the pick here.
Jeanty was the popular pick at No. 6 to the Raiders, whose backfield consists of Zamir White and Alexander Mattison right now. Pete Carroll loves running the ball, so the fit made sense.
If Jeanty is not there, though, it appears offensive line is the betting favorite. Both Banks and Membou are +175 to go to Las Vegas. I’m putting Banks here simply because his last name is first on the board and alphabetically.
EDGE Jalon Walker and Jeanty are both +400 to go sixth overall, and Graham is +900.
The last time the Jets picked a tight end in the first round, they passed on Warren Sapp and got a memorable reaction from the fanbase.
New York, like the Browns and Giants at the top of the draft, simply need talent. There’s no clear need for new head coach Aaron Glenn’s roster, so this could be a case of “best player available.”
Well, that might be Tyler Warren.
The Penn State tight end had a breakout college season and should be able to step in and contribute right away. He may not be the prospect that Brock Bowers was last year, but him potentially going seventh overall speaks to the lack of quality depth in terms of the prospect pool in this draft.
Warren is +200, but Membou isn’t far behind at +250. Graham is +400 and Banks is +600.
The Falcons are at No. 8, and that pick has to be defense … you would think. Atlanta has its quarterback in Michael Penix Jr., running back in Bijan Robinson and wide receiver in Drake London.
Unless the pick is an offensive lineman, this pick won’t be on that side of the ball.
Last year, everyone assumed the Falcons were going to take an edge rusher. Instead, they shocked the world and took Penix.
Walker is the favorite at +125, while Graham is +250. Fellow edge rusher Mykel Williams is +600.
Graham is a player to watch and it wouldn’t be a shock if he went in the top 10. He’s among the top three favorites at three picks and is clearly highly thought of, but getting a pass rusher or offensive playmaker is likely more of a priority than an interior defensive lineman.
Who knows what the Saints are going to do? GM Mickey Loomis spoke to the media before the draft and offered absolutely no clarity on QB Derek Carr’s injury, even insinuating that the team doesn’t really have all of the details about his shoulder. That's not great.
It appears Carr isn't the long-term answer for the Saints at quarterback. Jaxson Dart is +500 to go here, and Shadeur Sanders is +1600.
A lot of mock drafts with sourced reports from NFL scouts indicate that New Orleans doesn’t love either player, though.
With that, Williams is the favorite to go ninth at +230, which indicates no one knows what the Saints are going to do. Banks is +500, and Jeanty is +550 despite Alvin Kamara already being the go-to guy. McMillan is +600, while TE Colston Loveland is +750.
The Bears, like the Saints, have odds all over the table.
Warren is actually the favorite to go 10th at +320, followed by Banks (+500) and Jeanty (+550). Heck, Loveland is +700.
Reports indicate Jeanty falling to 10th is the scenario that the Bears are praying for.
So, the pick here is actually the fourth favorite on the board: WR McMillan.
On paper, the pick wouldn’t make a whole lot of sense. Chicago signed WR D.J. Moore to an extension before last season and drafted WR Rome Odunze ninth overall last year.
Offensive line would make sense, which would mean Banks or Membou would fit. Membou, though, is +2000 to go 10th overall, which indicates it’s unlikely he’ll still be there.
Chicago could go in a lot of directions here. It shored up the offensive line during free agency, but you can never have enough talent in protecting Caleb Williams.
