Super Bowl Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer
The matchup for Super Bowl LIX is set. We have Eagles and Chiefs, Volume II. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are going for a three-peat, while the Eagles have revenge on their mind.
This is the second, more robust version of this article for the Super Bowl. All notes in version one have mostly made it over to this link, including more info for Super Bowl 59.
All data, stats, and trends are updated as of Monday, Feb. 3, at 12 p.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
We Meet Again
Eagles-Chiefs Super Bowl
Let's talk rematch. The Chiefs vs. Eagles this year will mark just the second time in NFL history that the same teams have met in the Super Bowl twice in 3 years. The Bills and Cowboys also did so in 1992-1993.
Andy Reid vs. Nick Sirianni will be the 5th head coach rematch in a Super Bowl all-time. The head coach who won the first meeting straight up also won the second meeting in all four prior instances. That includes Reid vs. Kyle Shanahan last year in Super Bowl LVIII.
Head Coaches to Meet in Two Super Bowls (bold won both meetings)
Andy Reid – Nick Sirianni
Andy Reid – Kyle Shanahan
Tom Coughlin – Bill Belichick
Jimmy Johnson – Marv Levy
Chuck Noll – Tom Landry
The Grim Reaper
The Mahomes Challenge
When you take Mahomes off the road, it’s tough to beat him.
In January and February, Mahomes is 16-2 SU in-home or neutral-site games, with his losses coming against Joe Burrow and Tom Brady. He’s 44-6 SU in that spot in November or later. In the playoffs, Mahomes is 8-0 SU and ATS when either listed as an underdog or a favorite of less than a field goal.
On extended rest (8+ days) during the season, Mahomes is 30-4 SU since 2019. QBs to beat him: Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Jalen Hurts, and Aidan O’Connell. In his playoff career, Mahomes is 17-3 SU (85%). His 85% win pct is 2nd-best minimum 10 starts since 1950, behind just Bart Starr at 9-1 SU.
On the road or neutral site, Mahomes has started 26 games either as an underdog or a favorite of 3 pts or less. He is 21-4-1 ATS (84%) in those games.
Big Numbers
Eagles Breaking Records
Eagles scored 55 points in the Conference Championship, the most in that round in NFL history. Only three teams have scored more than 45 pts in the Conference Championship:
1990-91 Bills — who lost the Super Bowl
2015-16 Panthers — who lost the Super Bowl.
2024-25 Eagles
Teams to score 40+ points in the Conference Championship are 3-7 SU in the Super Bowl.
The Rest Difference
Time Off
The Chiefs had a bye week entering the playoffs. The Eagles didn’t, playing in the Wild Card round. How much impact has the bye been when one team had it and the other didn’t enter the Super Bowl? In the Super Bowl era, teams that didn’t play in the Wild Card game – had a bye entering playoffs – facing a team who did play in the Wild Card game or didn’t have a bye, are 4-12 SU and 2-13-1 ATS.
Tough Spot
Mahomes vs. Fangio
Vic Fangio-coached defenses have faced Patrick Mahomes eight times — six with the Broncos, and twice with the Dolphins. They are 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS vs. Chiefs. Mahomes has 10 TD, 2 INT, 64% comp. pct.
On the other side though, it hasn’t been all magic and butterflies.
+ 2 of his lowest 10 passing-yard games in reg season vs. Fangio. Granted DEN offense scored 15 pts in those 2 games combined.
+ Pass yds after catch, 1st and 4th lowest career reg season starts.
+ Bad throw pct == pct of off-target throws/pass attempt == 21 games 23% or higher, 3 vs. Fangio
+ Of 20 negative EPA games career, 2 vs. Fangio defenses. 2 of the top-10 worst EPA games too.
+ 6 of 8 games vs. Fangio, Mahomes had 20% pressure pct == times pressured per dropback.
Saquon's Quest
Barkley vs. History
Saquon Barkley's rushing line in the Super Bowl is about 110.5. How hard is it to get to say 120 rushing yards in the Super Bowl? It hasn't been done since Michael Pittman in 2003. The only time since Terrell Davis did in 1998, the last RB to win Super Bowl MVP.
Eagles are the 11th team to enter a Super Bowl with a 1,500+ yard regular season rusher and the first since Shaun Alexander in 2005 and Corey Dillon in 2004. Those teams with the 1,500-yard rusher is 8-2 SU in the Super Bowl. The two losses? Shaun Alexander in 2005 and Jamal Anderson in 1998.
Barkley is listed 2nd in MVP odds this year, behind Mahomes and ahead of Hurts, his teammate. This is the first time since 2003 that a position other than QB has been listed in the top 2 in Super Bowl MVP odds. Each of the other 21 Super Bowl’s since 2003 had a QB 1-2 in odds.
Barkley’s odds are +240, which would also be the shortest to win Super Bowl MVP for a position player. The closest? 2014 Marshawn Lynch, 2008 Larry Fitzgerald, and 2005 Shaun Alexander, all at +400.
Chalk Effect
Pedigree Isn't Everything
The Chiefs were favored by an average of 4.3 points per game this season, which barely edged the Eagles, who were favored by 4.0 PPG this year. Over the last 21 years, the team that was the biggest favorite on average over the course of the season is 7-14 SU and 3-18 ATS in the Super Bowl (7-16 SU and 3-20 ATS over the last 23 years — since 2001). Before that stretch, these teams went 9-2 SU and 7-3-1 ATS dating back to 1990.
Kansas City enters the Super Bowl with a slightly better SU win percentage (89.5%) than the Eagles (85%) this season. In recent history, that hasn't boded well for the Chiefs side since the team with the better win percentage is 1-16 ATS in the Super Bowl since 2003.
Super Bowl 59
| KC Chiefs | PHI Eagles | SB History | Markets | Indoor SB | Anthem | Coin Toss | Gatorade | Referees | Systems | Stat Leaders | SB MVP | TD Zone | Futures | SB Trivia |
Team-By-Team Breakdown
| Patrick Mahomes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Playoff Record | SU: 17-3 | ATS: 14-6 | ||
2024 Record | SU: 17-1 | ATS: 8-9-1 | ||
Team Stats
Chiefs Seek Revenge
➤ The Chiefs lost to the Bills in their previous matchup. Since 2019, the Chiefs are 25-7 SU after losing to their current opponent in their last meeting.
Mahomes has closed at -3 or shorter, or as an underdog, vs. a team KC lost to in their last matchup; he is 10-3 ATS, with losses to Allen and Burrow in the regular season and Brady in the playoffs.
Second-Half Defensive Dominance
➤ Over the last two seasons, the second-half under in Chiefs games is 29-11 (73%), going under the total in that 2H by over 4 PPG. That is the best mark for any team in the NFL.
Turnover Battle Insights
➤ The Chiefs were the only winning team in the Divisional Round and the Conference Championship to not win the turnover battle. When the Chiefs get even or win the turnover battle since 2018, they are 82-10 SU and 56-35-1 ATS. When they lose the TO battle, they are still 25-19-1 SU, but 13-28-3 ATS.
Best SU win pct since 2018 when losing TO battle:
Chiefs: 56%
Bills: 41%
Rams: 38%
Strong Starts Lead To Success
➤ When the Chiefs lead early, they are tough to beat. KC is 64-7 SU (90%) since 2018 when leading after the first quarter (best win pct of any NFL team), including 29-0 SU in the last three seasons. Their last loss came in the 2022 AFC Championship game vs. Bengals.
Chiefs trailed in the first quarter last year vs. the 49ers and won outright. Winning team SU had not trailed in the first quarter of the previous 13 Super Bowls before SB 58.
The team that scores first in the Super Bowl is 37-21 SU. The 49ers scored first last year and lost, Eagles scored first the year before and lost. Four of the last five teams to score first in the Super Bowl have lost (SF, PHI, LAR, KC, SF).
Chiefs' ATS History
➤ The Chiefs enter the Super Bowl with an 8-10-1 ATS record, for a 44.4% against the spread win pct.
That would be the 6th-lowest ATS win pct for any team to win a Super Bowl if KC comes through and just the 3rd-lowest of the last 50 years. The lowest belongs to the Chiefs in Super Bowl 57 at 6-11 ATS (35.3%).
Lowest ATS Win Pct – Win Super Bowl Since 1976
35.3% – Super Bowl 57, Chiefs over Eagles
40% – Super Bowl 47, Ravens over 49ers
47.1% – Super Bowl 56, Rams over Bengals
This is the 13th Super Bowl in history where one of the teams is above .500 ATS and the other is below .500 ATS. The team above .500 ATS is 8-4 SU and 7-4-1 ATS vs. the team below .500 ATS for the season in the Super Bowl.
Mahomes and the Salary Cap
➤ Patrick Mahomes currently takes up 14.5% of the Chiefs salary cap. In 2023 it was 16.5% of the cap, and 17.2% in 2022. FWIW, in 2025, he will take up 24.1% of the cap as of now.
Highest pct salary cap, Super Bowl winning QB since 1994:
17.2%: Patrick Mahomes, 2022
16.5%: Patrick Mahomes, 2023
13.1%: Steve Young, 1994
12.2%: Tom Brady, 2018 & 2020
Pct of cap taken up by last four SB Champ QBs:
16.5%: Patrick Mahomes, 2023
17%: Patrick Mahomes, 2022
10.7%: Matthew Stafford, 2021
12.2%: Tom Brady, 2020
Record-Breaking One-Score Wins
➤ Chiefs have won an NFL-record 17 straight one-possession games. The last loss in a game decided by 8 points or fewer was 20-14 to Raiders on Christmas 2023.
Impressive Playoff Performances
➤ Chiefs center Creed Humphrey has been very impressive so far in the playoffs. There have been 57 guards, centers, or tackles to have at least 50 plays pass blocking in the playoffs, Humphrey is the only one not to allow a single QB pressure.
On the contrary, someone to watch out for is guard Mike Caliendo, who has allowed six pressures in the playoffs, the most on the Chiefs roster.
Struggles in the Running Game
➤ Chiefs have had struggles in the explosive run game. They are 30th in explosive run rate and last in the NFL in rush yards after contact per carry.
Trying To Match The Patriots
➤ The Chiefs have won nine consecutive playoff games entering the Super Bowl dating back to the 2022-23 playoffs. A win in Super Bowl 59 would tie them with the Patriots between 2002 and 2006 with ten consecutive playoff wins, the most all-time.
Most Consecutive Playoff Wins
10 – 2002-06 Patriots (3 SB wins)
9 – 2023-25 Chiefs (2 SB wins)
9 – 1961-68 Packers (2 SB wins)
Super Bowl Favorites
The Chiefs entered the regular season last year as the favorites to win the Super Bowl at +600 and won it all. Kansas City then entered this season also as favorites, listed at +500.
The last team to win back-to-back titles, both as the preseason betting favorite, was the 1988-89 49ers. In the Wild Card era since 1978, the preseason Super Bowl favorite has won the title eight times:
2023 Chiefs
2018 & 2016 Patriots
2006 Colts
1994 49ers
1993 Cowboys
1988 & 1989 49ers
The Chiefs were the 4th team to win two straight titles and make the Conference Championship for a third – and the first to make the Super Bowl for a third straight year. The 1994 Cowboys, 1990 49ers, and 1976 Steelers all didn’t make it that third season.
Last year, the 2023 Cheifs were the fifth defending champ in the last 25 seasons to return to the Super Bowl. The others: 2020 Chiefs (lost), 2017 Patriots (lost), 2014 Seahawks (lost), and 2004 Patriots (won) had all lost before winning back-to-back Super Bowls.
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Patrick Mahomes
Undefeated In Neutral-Site Games
➤ Patrick Mahomes has played five neutral site games in his career, he is 5-0 SU/ATS, covering by 5.7 points per game – three Super Bowls and two international games against the Chargers and Dolphins. The Chiefs have scored 21 points or more in all four neutral games.
Dominance In Cold Weather And Playoffs
➤ When you take Mahomes off the road, it’s tough to beat him. In January and February, Mahomes is 16-2 SU in-home or neutral-site games, with his losses coming against Joe Burrow and Tom Brady. He’s 44-6 SU in that spot in November or later.
In the playoffs, Mahomes is 8-0 SU and ATS when either listed as an underdog or a favorite of less than a field goal, covering the spread by 5.3 PPG.
In-home games in November or later, when the temperature is 40 degrees or less, Mahomes is 24-2 SU in his career – his losses were to Philip Rivers in 2018 and Tom Brady in the 2019 playoffs. Mahomes has won 21 consecutive games outright since that loss to Brady in the playoffs.
Struggles After Beating Allen
➤ Mahomes has taken down Josh Allen in the playoffs for a 4th time. In his career, he is just 1-2 SU in the playoffs the game after beating Allen in the playoffs.
Super Bowl Experience Gap
➤ Super Bowl Experience: Mahomes (5th) | Hurts (2nd)
Even More Experience: This will be the 23rd time in Super Bowl history that one QB has a 2+ Super Bowl experience gap, the experienced QB is 14-8 SU.
Mahomes Excels On Extended Rest
➤ On extended rest, Mahomes is 33-7 SU, 20-19-1 ATS during the season, and 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in Week 1s, for a combined 39-8 SU and 25-21-1 ATS.
On extended rest (8+ days) during the season, Mahomes is 30-4 SU since 2019. QBs to beat him: Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Jalen Hurts, and Aidan O’Connell.
Thrives As Small Favorite Or Underdog
➤ As a small favorite or an underdog, Mahomes is tough to beat. As a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog, he is 28-9-1 ATS. In a 6-point teaser, he’s 32-6 in that spot and 36-2 in a 10-point tease.
Success In Indoor Games
➤ In indoor games, Mahomes is 14-1 SU in his NFL career. His one loss came back in 2022 against the Colts and Matt Ryan (FWIW, roof was open that day). He’s played in the Superdome once, back in 2020 where the Chiefs won 32-29.
Mahomes' one game in Superdome: Dec. 20, 2020. Mahomes went 26-47 for 254 pass yds, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. He was sacked four times (37% pressure pct), went 7 carries for 37 yds on the ground, and fumbled twice in the game.
Comeback King In The Playoffs
➤ Mahomes has trailed in 4th quarter in nine playoff games. He has come back to win six and forced OT in two others before losing. He led scores on 13 of 14 drives in that situation.
Since 2018, the Chiefs have trailed by one possession in the 4th quarter or OT on 12 drives in the playoffs, Kansas City has scored points on 11 of those drives.
Since the start of the 2019 postseason, Chiefs have had 11 playoff drives in the 4th quarter or OT when down by a score, they have 7 TDs and four game-tying FGs.
Mahomes' Turnover Trends
➤ Mahomes has thrown an interception in three of his four Super Bowl starts. The only one he didn't? Against the Eagles. In playoff games outside the Super Bowl, Mahomes has an interception in two of 16 playoff games. This season, Mahomes hasn't thrown an interception in eight games, last throwing one vs. Bills in the regular season.
In each of Mahomes' three starts vs. Eagles he has 20+ completions, 2+ pass TDs, 5+ carries, 25+ rushing yards, and only two sacks taken in three games.
Mahomes has had at least 5 carries and 29 rushing yards in all four Super Bowl appearances. Mahomes has a rush of at least 11 yards in all four Super Bowls, going for 22 yds, 26 yds, 11 yds and 13 yds.
Fourth Quarter Heroics
➤ Mahomes has trailed in the 4th quarter or OT in nine total playoff games. He has won six of those games and forced overtime in two of those games.
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Andy Reid
Andy Reid Thrives With Extra Preparation
➤ The Super Bowl historically has a two-week gap between the Conference Championship and the big game. For Andy Reid, that has always been an advantage across his career.
In just Week 1, Reid is 17-9 SU as a head coach. When looking at his teams when playing on 13+ days rest outside of Week 1, which is typically the normal bye week, his teams are 34-7 SU, including 29-3 SU with Mahomes and Donovan McNabb as his quarterbacks. His losses were against the Eagles last season and his two Super Bowl losses to the Bucs and Patriots.
Reid's History Against The Eagles
➤ Reid coached the Eagles between 1999 and 2012, since then, he has faced the Eagles five times.
2023, Week 11. Lost 21-17 at home, was -2.5 and total went under 46.
2023, Super Bowl. Won 38-35, was +1.5 and total went over 51.5.
2021, Week 4. Won 42-30 at PHI, was -6.5 and total went over 54.5.
2017, Week 2. Won 27-20 at home, was -4 and total went over 46.5.
2013, Week 3. Won 26-16 at PHI, was +3 and total went under 50.
Reid's Super Bowl Success
➤ Reid's Super Bowl record is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS overall, 3-1 SU and ATS with the Chiefs. With extra time to prepare for a playoff game, Reid's teams are 15-6 SU and 13-8 ATS, including 8-1 ATS as an underdog or a favorite of less than a field goal.
Experience Gap In The Super Bowl
➤ This is Reid's 6th Super Bowl appearance as a head coach and opposing coach, Nick Sirianni's 2nd appearance. Coaching experience in the Super Bowl “doesn’t matter.” The coach that has more experience is just 20-17 SU and 18-19 ATS. When they have a 2-plus Super Bowl experience gap, they are just 12-14 SU and 10-15-1 ATS.
Andy Reid has a four-game Super Bowl experience gap over Nick Sirianni entering SB 59. In history, this will be only the 4th SB where one coach has a 4+ game experience gap vs. the other. The experienced coach is 2-1 SU, with Bill Belichick the experienced coach in each matchup.
The one loss for Belichick? Against Doug Pederson and the Eagles.
Reid's Bounce-Back Record
➤ Reid lost to the Eagles in his last game against them back in Week 11. Since 2018, Reid's teams are 29-8 SU (78%) when facing an opponent after losing to them in their previous matchup, including 10-3 SU/ATS when he is either an underdog or a favorite of less than a field goal.
Travis Kelce
Kelce's Dominance Against The Eagles
➤ Kelce has 25 career receptions for 251 yards and three touchdowns in four career games against the Eagles. He caught six balls for 81 yards and a touchdown in Super Bowl 57.
In the two games in the 2023 calendar year vs. Eagles, Kelce had 13 catches for 125 yards and two TDs vs. Eagles.
Kelce's Historic Playoff Production
➤ In 24 career playoff games, Kelce has 174 catches for 2,039 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns. The 174 receptions are the most ever, while he's second to Jerry Rice in receiving yards (2,245) and receiving touchdowns (22).
Receiving Yards:
Jerry Rice: 2,245
Travis Kelce: 2,039(207 away from breaking)
Julian Edelman: 1,442
Receiving TDs:
Jerry Rice: 22
Travis Kelce: 20
Rob Gronkowski: 15
Record-Breaking Receptions Streak
➤ Kelce has at least five receptions in 15 straight playoff games, which is two more games than the previous record-holder, Julian Edelman.
Kelce's Playoff Success Away From Arrowhead
➤ Kelce has played eight career playoff games outside of Arrowhead Stadium. He has 6+ targets and 5+ receptions in each game. With Mahomes in this spot, he has a TD in 4 of 6 games, and the two he didn't he had 9 rec for 93 yds and 10 rec for 133 yds.
Kelce has scored a TD or logged at least 90 receiving yards in all four of his Super Bowl appearances.
Kelce's Super Bowl Records
➤ He has 31 receptions in his Super Bowl career, which is three shy of the all-time record, set by Jerry Rice who has 33 catches.
Kelce has 350 career receiving yards in the Super Bowl, which is 240 away from Jerry Rice's record, but with 15 receiving yards, he will pass Lynn Swann and Rob Gronkowski for sole possession of second place on that list.
Kareem Hunt
Kareem Hunt's Playoff Streak
➤ Hunt became the 2nd player in NFL history with a rush TD in each of his first six career playoff games after scoring against the Bills in the Conference Championship. Hunt has now scored a TD in four consecutive games he has played for the Chiefs.
With a rushing TD Sunday, he would tie Terrell Davis for the longest streak since the merger.
Most consecutive games with a Rush TD to begin a playoff career since the mergerTerrell Davis: 7
Kareem Hunt: 6
Xavier Worthy
Worthy's Versatile Impact
➤ Worthy is a very unique talent. He had 638 receiving yards and 104 rushing yards on 79 touches (20 rush attempts) during the regular season and the Chiefs are just learning how to use him.
Worthy joins only Deebo Samuel to have 600+ receiving yards, 20+ rush attempts during the regular season and make the Super Bowl. Kansas City saw San Francisco last year and went out to find their own Deebo.
Worthy Leading Chiefs' Offense
➤ Worthy has been a major focus of the Chiefs offense lately. Since Week 12, he leads Kansas City in receiving yards, routes run, receptions, yards after catch, yards after contact, first read/designed targets, and receiving first downs.
Most importantly for his usage, he had received 16 designed targets since Week 12, the rest of KC players have just ten designed targets.
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| Jalen Hurts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Playoff Record | SU: 5-3 | ATS: 4-4 | ||
2024 Record | SU: 15-3 | ATS: 11-7 | ||
Team Stats
Streaking Teams Perform Well
➤ The Eagles have won six straight games now entering the Super Bowl. Overall, teams entering the Super Bowl on a 5+ game SU win streak are 9-6 ATS since the 2003 season. More importantly, when their opponent isn’t on a 5+ game SU win streak entering the Super Bowl, those streaking teams are 6-3 ATS – with them covering four in a row:
2024 Chiefs
2023 Chiefs
2021 Bucs
2020 Chiefs
Conference Championship Double-Digit Wins
➤ Eagles beat the Commanders by 32 pts. Chiefs beat the Bills by 3 pts. Teams to win by double-digits in the Conference Championship facing a team who didn’t are 3-6 SU/ATS in the Super Bowl since 2000, failing to cover the spread by 9.5 PPG.
Eagles' Rare Road Game
➤ This is the first time the Eagles will play a game away from Lincoln Financial Field since Week 16 – December 22nd, against the Commanders. Eagles this season become only the 2nd team to play three home playoff games entering a Super Bowl in the same season (excluding the 1982 strike), joining the 2021 Chiefs, who lost to the Bengals in the AFC Championship.
The 2021 Rams are the only other team to have three home playoff games (excluding the 1982 strike) in a single postseason and they ended up winning it all against those same Bengals.
Longest Home Stretch Entering Super Bowl
➤ Eagles have played five straight home games before now having to hit the road to play the Super Bowl, that is the most consecutive home games entering a Super Bowl for any team since the 1976-77 Raiders, who also had a 5-game streak (Raiders beat Vikings in the Super Bowl).
Red Zone Turnaround
➤ In the Conference Championship, the Eagles went a perfect 7-of-7 in the red zone. The red zone had been an issue for the Eagles. They were 13th in red zone percentage during the regular season, but they were 1-6 in the playoffs entering the Conference Championship.
Since 2002, teams to score 5+ red zone touchdowns in the playoffs are just 5-10 SU and 4-11 ATS in their next game.
Strong Second-Half Team
➤ The Eagles have been a great second-half team this year, too. They are 13-7 against the third quarter spread and 13-7 against the fourth quarter spread this year, for a combined 26-14 in those quarters in the second half.
Turnover Battle Dominance
➤ The Eagles are winning the turnover battle 10-0 so far in the playoffs through three games, and over their last five games, they are winning the turnover battle 15-0.
The only other team to even have a 5-game turnover-less streak and play in the Super Bowl was the 2021-22 Bengals. The 2016-17 Falcons had a streak of four straight games without a turnover entering the Super Bowl; they won the turnover battle in the Super Bowl but lost to the Patriots.
Scoring First Is Key For Eagles
➤ The Eagles have scored first in seven straight games. A lead is important to Philly. Under Nick Sirianni, they are 53-23 SU (70%) overall. When they lead by 7+ points at any point in the game, they are 46-12 SU (79%).
Under Sirianni, the Eagles are 29-1 SU when leading by 15+ pts at any point in the game and 21-2 SU when leading by 10+ pts at the half.
Can They Do It Again?
➤ Under Nick Sirianni, the Eagles have faced six teams they beat outright in their previous meeting, where they were listed as an underdog in the rematch. They are 0-6 SU and ATS in those games, but none of those six games have come this season before the Chiefs game this Sunday.
Jalen Hurts
Home Playoff Dominance, Road Struggles
➤ Jalen Hurts has played five home games in the playoffs, and he is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. Away from home in the playoffs, Hurts is 0-3 SU/ATS, failing to cover the spread by 13.2 PPG in those matchups.
Mixed Success Against The Spread
➤ Hurts has been the starting QB in Philadelphia since 2021. He is 36-32-2 ATS since the start of that season, including 17-20-1 ATS on the road or neutral field. With a spread of four points or less either way, he is 13-9 ATS road/neutral, and 9-4 ATS over the last two seasons.
Record-Setting Rushing Attempts
➤ Hurts had 150 rush attempts during the regular season. In 2022 he had 165 rush attempts. Those are the two highest marks for any QB to play in a Super Bowl. 49 QBs have had 100+ rush attempts in the regular season, three made the Super Bowl, and entering this year, they are 0-3 SU in the big game. Hurts in 2022, Cam Newton in 2015, and Russell Wilson in 2014.
How can we project Hurts' rushing in the Super Bowl? He has an 8% scramble rate, 5th-highest in the NFL and the Chiefs allow the 7th-most rushing yards overall to quarterbacks this season.
Hurts Struggles On Extended Rest
➤ Rest hasn't been the best for Hurts and the Eagles. He has started 17 games on extended prep time in his career, Philly is just 9-8 SU in those games, including 3-6 SU when the game is played on the road or on a neutral site. They only had to play one game on the road on extended rest this year and they beat the Rams, 37-20.
Excelling Against Man Coverage
➤ Hurts has excelled this season against man coverage. His QBR is 3rd in the NFL among QBs and he has 15 pass TD and 2 INT against man this year. Chiefs used man coverage at the 5th-highest rate during the regular season.
Success Against Playoff Teams
➤ The Eagles are beating good teams. Since December 1st, they are 4-0 SU vs. teams who are both over .500 SU and made the playoffs both this season and last season — a really good pedigree.
As with most of Hurts' stats, he's better at home than he is on the road. When he faces a team above .500 SU, who made the playoffs the previous season, he is 14-7 SU, 11-2 SU at home, and 3-5 SU away from home.
Back In The Big Game
➤ In Super Bowl 59, Hurts can become the 4th starting QB to win a Super Bowl after losing in their 1st appearance.
Len Dawson (SB 1 & 4)
Bob Griese (SB 6 & 7)
John Elway (SB 21 & 32)
The last 19 QBs to lose their Super Bowl debut have not or did not return to the Super Bowl (as a starting QB). Jim Kelly was the last to return after losing his Super Bowl debut before Hurts this season.
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Saquon Barkley
Barkley's Record-Breaking Potential
➤ Barkley had a rushing yard total initially rush 130.5 in the Conference Championship, which at that mark was the highest we’ve ever seen. He closed around 125 and finished with 118 yards going under.
Most rushing yards in a season including playoffs — Saquon is 30 yards shy of breaking the record set by Terrell Davis in 1998.
In addition, Saquon is 169 rush yards away from breaking the record for the most rush yds in a single playoff by John Riggins (610) in 1982. He is also 149 total scrimmage yards away from Riggins' other record set in 1982.
Barkley would need a 3 TD day against the Chiefs to match Terrell Davis (8 TD) single-playoffs touchdown record.
Chiefs' Defense Dominates Against Top Rushers
➤ Chiefs defense has been stingy against the best rushers. They haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in the playoffs since Sony Michel in 2018-19 — a streak of 18 consecutive playoff games. Lamar Jackson was the only player to go for 100+ yds vs. Chiefs this year, rushing for 122 yds in the opener.
Since 2018, the Chiefs have faced 131 RBs who started for the opponent and got at least 5 carries — 19 of those 131 RBs rushed for 100+ yards. Since the 2020 season, the Chiefs have allowed 100+ rushing yards to a 1,000+ yard rusher that season three times and they all came back in 2022 against Kenneth Walker, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs.
Historic Rushing Streak For Barkley
➤ Barkley has rushed for 100+ yards in five consecutive games entering the Super Bowl — the first player to do that in history. The closest was Emmitt Smith back in 1994, who rushed for 100+ yards in the Super Bowl, which was his 5th straight 100+ yd rushing game. Barkley has rushed for 100+ yds in 14 of 19 games this season.
Chiefs' Defensive Strategy Against Saquon
➤ Look for the Chiefs to try and stack the box against Saquon. His yards per carry with 8+ defenders in the box is 3.93, while it's 6.2 or higher against 6 and 7-man boxes.
According to Fantasy Points, on routes with 8 or more defenders in the box, A.J. Brown has averaged 5 yards per route run. Chiefs have to be careful.
A.J. Brown
Brown's Mastery Against Man Coverage
➤ Brown has dominated man coverage this season. He is 1st in receiving yards and 1st in yards per route vs. man (including the playoffs). Chiefs used man coverage at the 5th-highest rate during the regular season.
Chiefs are 8th in success rate on throws of 10+ air yards downfield. With AJ Brown's almost 13 yd average depth of target, that could be a problem for the Eagles.
Performance in High-Scoring Games
➤ With the Eagles, Brown has played 21 games with a full game over/under of 47+ and 32 games with a total under that mark.
He is averaging 1.5 more targets, almost a full reception and almost 9 more receiving yards in higher total games.
DeVonta Smith
DeVonta's Dominance Against The Chiefs
➤ DeVonta has destroyed the Chiefs historically. In three games, here is how he has performed:
Week 11, 2023: 8 targets, 6 receptions, 99 rec yds
Super Bowl: 9 targets, 7 receptions, 100 rec yds
Week 4, 2021: 10 targets, 7 receptions, 122 rec yds
DeVonta's average depth of target was 12+ in all three games. Since 2018, DeVonta is tied with Mike Williams for the most 99+ rec yd games vs. the Chiefs.
Elite Career Achievement On The Line
➤ DeVonta can become the 5th player of all time to win a Heisman, National Championship, and Super Bowl joining Tony Dorsett, Marcus Allen, Charles Woodson, and Reggie Bush.
Dallas Goedert
Goedert Shines In The Conference Championship
➤ Goedert led the Eagles in receptions in the Conference Championship with seven and he had 85 total receiving yards. Goedert has now gone over his receptions prop in nine straight playoff games.
Chasing Playoff History
➤ With four receptions in the Super Bowl, Goedert would join this list of players with 4+ receptions in ten straight playoff games since the merger: Kelce, Edelman, Welker, Tyreek, Julio Jones, Jerry Rice – only Travis Kelce has done it as a tight end.
Chiefs' Struggles Against Tight Ends
➤ Kansas City's defense has allowed the most yards per target to TEs.
Jake Elliott
Long-Range Struggles For Elliott
➤ Elliott has only made 1-of-8 FG attempts of 50+ yards this season, the rest of the NFL is around 71% from 50+. He was 15-of-17 from 50+ yards the previous three seasons.
Costly Missed Field Goals
➤ The Eagles' eight drives ending by a missed field goal this season was tied for 4th-most in the NFL. When Elliott missed those kicks, the Eagles were leading by an average of just 3.1 PPG.
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Super Bowl History
| Favorites & Underdogs Super Bowl favorites are 36-22 SU and 27-29-2 ATS in the Super Bowl. Underdogs had their way in the Wild Card and Divisional Round, while the favorites came through in the Conference Championship. We’re just coming off a regular season to remember for favorites — the best ATS season from a profit/ROI POV since 2017. Overall, favorites ended 2024 with a 195-77 SU record (71.7%), the 3rd-best season since 1980. Since 2017, underdogs in the playoffs are now 59-39 ATS (60%) with a 17% ROI. |
| The Super Bowl Total The over is 28-28-1 in the Super Bowl. (There was no total in Super Bowl 1.) • The over has cashed in two straight Super Bowls for the first time since 2017-18. It hasn't cashed in three straight since 2013-15. |
| Super Bowl Winners ATS Super Bowl winners are 49-7-2 ATS (88%). The Rams won the Super Bowl but failed to cover the spread in 2022, which was the first time that happened since the 2009 Super Bowl. Super Bowl winners with a spread of six or fewer points are 30-1 ATS. Super Bowl winners with a spread of four or fewer are 23-0 ATS, with 11 favorites and 12 'dogs winning straight-up. This will likely be the 32nd Super Bowl with a point spread of six or fewer. The SU winner has covered the spread in 30 of 31 games. Sixteen 'dogs have won outright and 15 favorites have won outright. |
Super Bowl Tidbits
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Betting Markets
Indoor, Turf Super Bowl
➤ This will be the 22nd indoor Super Bowl. Overall, indoor Super Bowls are just 11-10 to the under.
The average over/under in those first 21 games is 47.6, with the average combined points scored between the two teams coming in at 47.7. The over/under in this year's Super Bowl opened at 49.5 and has moved down to 48.5. Since 2010, the average indoor Super Bowl total has been 50.2, with an average of 50.1 PPG scored in those eight games.
➤ Indoor playoff games since 2003 are 37-18 (67%) to the over. Outdoor playoff games are 109-83-5 (57%) to the under.
For updated weather reports check out the Action Network NFL Weather page.
➤ Now, let's talk the surface of the field. In New Orleans this year, we have Turf Nation S5 on the field. This will be the 25th Super Bowl with a turf surface and the 19th on turf and indoors.
In turf Super Bowls, we've seen an average of 44.2 PPG scored with an average total of 45. Since 1990, that is an average of 49.1 PPG scored and an average total of 49.8.
➤ Since 2000, we've had 11 Super Bowl's on turf, 8 of those 11 games were decided by one-possession. The last two Super Bowl MVPs on turf: WR Cooper Kupp and WR Julian Edelman and FWIW, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have never played or coached in a Super Bowl with a turf surface.
On grass in Super Bowl history we've had 34 games, 33 with an O/U with an average of 48.3 PPG and a total of 45.3.
National Anthem
Full National Anthem info since 2007: Year-by-year times, over/unders and results:
➤ Jon Batiste, a Louisiana native and five-time Grammy Award-winning singer, and songwriter, will perform the national anthem at Super Bowl 59. Fellow Louisiana natives and music icons Trombone Shorty, Lauren Daigle, and Ledisi will also be part of the Super Bowl's pre-game entertainment.
Tidbits:
+ Last 10 years, National Anthem is 6-4 to the over and 4-2 to the over last six years.
+ 7 of the past 8 anthems have been under 2:05. The exception had two singers on the mic.
➤ Batiste's over/under of 120.5 seconds is the 2nd-highest since 2018 (Chris Stapleton in 2023, went under). We've had eight anthems since 2007 with an over/under of 120 seconds or more, they are an even 4-4, with the last three anthems of 120+ seconds all going under the total.
Coin Toss
Full coin toss info in 58-year Super Bowl history: Year-by-year heads/tails, team who won the toss and did they end up winning the game:
Gatorade Bath
Full Gatorade info since 2001: Year-by-year selections, current odds and most choices in total:
Referee: Ron Torbert
➤ Ron Torbert will be the Super Bowl referee this year. This will be Torbert’s second Super Bowl, he was the main official for Rams-Bengals back in 2021-22. The game only had six combined penalties between both teams, the lowest combined number in a Super Bowl since 1999.
➤ When it comes to total penalties called overall though, Torbert has been among the highest of officials lately. Of 17 head officials, Torbert has the 3rd-most penalties called this year and last year. Last two seasons, Torbert has called 94 offensive holding penalties, he’s top-4 in total offensive holds in both seasons.
➤ Torbert’s games tend to lean toward the favorite. Last decade, his games were 76.1% SU to the favorite, with a $100 bettor up $1,772 taking each of those games, the highest profit total for any referee in that span. Against the spread, favorites with Torbert are 90-71-2 ATS (56%) in the last decade, also the best of any official. This season, favorites went 13-4 SU and ATS in Torbert officiated games. Favorites have won 11+ games SU in all 11 of his seasons since Torbert started officiating, going 38-12 SU last three seasons.
➤ In Torbert officiated games, Patrick Mahomes is 3-1 SU and ATS, including the 2022-23 playoff game vs. Bengals where they closed -2 and won 23-20.
In the 4 games Torbert has refereed with the Chiefs and Mahomes, he has 9 passing TDs and 1 INT, 225+ pass yds in each game.
From a penalty point of view, 33 on the Chiefs, 22 on their opponents (CLE, CIN X2, BUF).
Offensive holds: KC 10, opponents 9
Def. Pass Interference for Mahomes & opp. QBs
Mahomes: 4 | opp. QBs: 6
➤ Torbert has a lot of experience with the Eagles. He’s refereed Hurts six times and Sirianni-coached teams 7 times. Hurts is 4-2 SU with Torbert, winning four in a row since the start of the 2022 season. Eagles have scored 34, 33, 34, 24 in the four games.
Torbert has refereed 57 games with an over/under of 47 or more, the under is 32-24-1 (57%) in those games. When the total is below 47, the under is just 60-61 in Torbert-officiated games.
Betting Systems
System: In the Conference Championship round, the first half over is now 15-5 in the last decade. The Super Bowl has been a different story, going 12-6-1 since 2005.
Matches: 1st Half Under
System: In the Conference Championship and Super Bowl, teams have struggled to cover the second half spread after holding a lead at the half.
Teams leading at the half in this year's NFL playoffs are 4-7 against the second-half spread, with those teams going .500 2H ATS or worse for three straight playoffs. Plus, teams leading at the half in the Conference Championship or Super Bowl are 21-33-3 against the second-half spread over the last 20 years.
Matches: Check Lines
System: When both teams are on extended rest, it has historically been profitable to look to the under.
Matches: Under
System: This system says to fade good both SU and ATS teams late in the season. That is the Eagles, not the Chiefs, who are 8-10-1 ATS.
Matches: PHI
System: A fun look at the season. The top-10 QBs in contract average value are 86-62-4 ATS (58%) this year, which includes Jalen Hurts. Patrick Mahomes is between 12th and 13th on the list.
Matches: PHI
Playoff Stat Leaders
Tap carrot below to expand. For more information on NFL leader odds, check out our NFL futures page with updated markets (Odds from pre-playoffs | Current odds). All players eliminated behind 1st place have been removed.
NFL Final Stat Matrix
 |  Leader |  2nd In Category |  3rd In Category |
| Pass Yds | Jayden Daniels (+2200; -1400): Leader | Jalen Hurts (+750; +850): -317 | Patrick Mahomes (+600; +2500): -400 |
| Pass TD | Jayden Daniels (+1600; -310): Leader | Jalen Hurts (+1000; +400): -3 | Patrick Mahomes (+550; +650): -3 |
| Rush TD | Saquon Barkley (+500; -1000): Leader | Jalen Hurts (+800; +600): -1 | N/A |
| Rec. Yds | Dyami Brown (+250): Leader | Dallas Goedert (+3500; -125): -41 | Travis Kelce (+2800; +900): -93 | Xavier Worthy (+4000; +1400): -99 |
| Rec. TD | Terry McLaurin (+2500; -2000): Leader | Travis Kelce (+1200; +1400): -2 | Xaiver Worthy (+2500; +2500): -2 | AJ Brown (+900; +2500): -2 | Dallas Goedert (N/A; +5000): -2 |
| Updated as of Feb. 3rd | |||
Super Bowl MVP
Let's dive into some notes and trends for Super Bowl MVP.
➤ 12 of the last 15 Super Bowl MVPs have been under 10-1 odds (Edelman, Von Miller, Malcolm Smith).
➤ Patrick Mahomes is listed as the Super Bowl MVP favorite at +105. Mahomes won Super Bowl MVP last year at +145, he was +130 the year before.
➤ Since 2003, we've had nine players be listed as +110 or shorter to win Super Bowl MVP — only two won: 2019 Patrick Mahomes at +105 and 2006 Peyton Manning at +100.
Not only that, of the nine players to be listed +110 or shorter, not only were they 2-7 winning the award, but so were their teams in the Super Bowl itself.
➤ Here is a positional breakdown of the 59 Super Bowl MVPs…
33 – QBs
8 – WR
7 – RB
11 – every other position
➤ A WR won MVP three years ago (Cooper Kupp) and in 2019 (Julian Edelman), but it’s been ages since a RB has won. You have to go back to 1998 (Terrell Davis) and 1994 (Emmitt Smith).
➤ Let's first take a look at each Super Bowl MVP and their odds over the past 20 years:
➤ Saquon Barkley is listed 2nd in MVP odds this year, behind Mahomes and ahead of Hurts, his teammate. This is the first time since 2003 that a position other than QB has been listed in the top 2 in Super Bowl MVP odds. Each of the other 21 Super Bowls since 2003 had a QB 1-2 in odds.
Barkley’s odds are +240, which would also be the shortest to win Super Bowl MVP for a position player. The closest? 2014 Marshawn Lynch, 2008 Larry Fitzgerald, and 2005 Shaun Alexander, all at +400.
➤ It isn't easy to win Super Bowl MVP as a defender. Here are defensive players to win Super Bowl MVP since 2000:
• 2015 Von Miller (Broncos): 2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles. Neither QB (Peyton Manning or Cam Newton) threw a touchdown in the Super Bowl.
• 2013 Malcolm Smith (Seahawks): pick-six, 10 tackles, fumble recovery. Russell Wilson threw for 206 passing yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions.
• 2002 Dexter Jackson (Buccaneers) two interceptions. Brad Johnson threw for 215 passing yards with two passing touchdowns and an interception.
• 2000 Ray Lewis (Ravens): four pass deflections and five tackles; Ravens defense allowed seven points. Trent Dilfer threw for 153 passing yards with a touchdown, while Jamal Lewis had 27 carries for 102 rushing yards and a touchdown.
➤ With the Chiefs in the Super Bowl for the 5th time with Mahomes and Kelce. Let's see their Super Bowl MVP prices:
Chiefs Historical Super Bowl Odds (2025, 2024, 2023, 2021, 2020)
Patrick Mahomes (+105, +130, +125, -105, +105)
Travis Kelce (+1500, +1400, +1100, +1100, +2000)
Eagles Historical Super Bowl Odds (2025, 2023)
Jalen Hurts (+375, +150)
AJ Brown (+3500, +1600)
DeVonta Smith (+6600, +2500)
TD Zone
Below is an Anytime TD Super Bowl sheet — which encompasses every TD and odds for each player for the last eight Super Bowls.
➤ Also a great nugget from Gilles Gallant:
In each of the Kansas City Chiefs' 3 Super Bowl Wins, a Chief at +500 or higher has scored:
Patrick Mahomes +500 (2020)
Skyy Moore +800 (2023)
Kadarius Toney +750 (2023)
Mecole Hardman +1300 (2024)
Now for the "First TD data." Below is an updated tracking sheet for every player to score the first TD of the game this season for the two remaining teams.
Super Bowl Futures
➤ 11 of the last 12 Super Bowl champions have been listed at +1200 or shorter to win it all in the preseason now with KC/PHI winning.
12-1 or shorter to win 2024-25 Super Bowl in Preseason
+500 – Chiefs
+600 – 49ers
+1000 – Ravens
+1200 – Lions
+1200 – Eagles
➤ Over the last decade, if you bet every team listed 12-1 or shorter to win the Super Bowl in the preseason, you would be up considering the run of favorites we've had.
Let's say every August, for the last ten years, they bet every single combination of teams 12-1 or shorter to win. Basically parlayed all the conference title odds combos. Over these years, that strategy won four times across 67 total combinations: this year with Chiefs Eagles, along with Chiefs Niners, Chiefs Bucs, and Pats Rams. 67 total combos, with four winning parlays, plus 63 losers. At one unit per bet, the four winners paid out 84 units. Minus the 63 losers, you'd still be up 21 units just doing this round-robin strategy blind.
What about just straight, flat betting every team 12-1 or shorter to win it all? Over the last decade that's 56 total teams, so 56 total bets. It's won nine times (including this year) and lost 47. With KC or Philly pending, the eight winners have paid 65 units. Minus the 47 losing bets, if you just did this blind for the last decade, you'd already be up 18 units, and holding a KC 5-1 and a Philly 12-1 ticket.
Plus, in 2014 the Patriots won it all at +650 and in 2013 the Seahawks won at +800 in the preseason.
➤ Since 2008, the eventual Super Bowl champion has always come from the top 8 in Super Bowl odds entering the playoffs, including from the top 6 in each of the past 11 seasons. The last team to win outside the top 6 in odds entering the playoffs was the 2012 Ravens. Here were the top 6 in odds this year: Lions, Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, Eagles, and Vikings.
➤ With the Lions losing in the Divisional Round, it's not easy to win as the favorite entering the tournament.
Since 2005, the favorite to win the Super Bowl entering the playoffs have won it all three times (Chiefs in 2023, Patriots in 2016 and the Seahawks in 2013).
➤ Only one AFC team has made the Super Bowl with preseason conference odds above +1000 since Tom Brady and the Patriots in 2001 (+2000), and that was the 2021 Bengals at +8000.
10-1 or shorter to win 2024-25 AFC Championship
+325 – Chiefs
+550 – Ravens
+700 – Bengals
+800 – Texans
+850 – Bills
+900 – Jets
Chiefs Super Bowl Odds
Chiefs: -125 (Highest odds: +550, WK16 | Enter WK1: +500)
Eagles Super Bowl Odds
Eagles: +105 (Highest odds: +1600, WK8 | Enter WK1: +1200)
Trivia
For this week's trivia question, we are looking for just one answer. Click the button below to reveal the correct answer.
Trivia Question: The Chiefs enter the Super Bowl 17-2 SU (89.5%) this season. Name the last team to win the Super Bowl with a higher win percentage than the Chiefs have this season.
❌ Click This Button For Trivia Answer ✅
1985-86 Chicago Bears. In Super Bowl 20, they entered the game 17-1 SU (94.4%) and beat the Patriots
