Super Bowl 59: Chiefs vs. Eagles is here, and we've already got you covered on side, totals, props, analysis and so much more.
All of that will be determined on the field at the Caesars Superdome, but there's one award that will be decided by a panel of voters on Sunday. Let's talk about Super Bowl MVP odds.
Patrick Mahomes is the betting favorite (again), but Saquon Barkley is hot on his tails and ahead of Jalen Hurts, with a litany of names behind them.
So which names are worth betting, and who should be avoided?
Let's start with what you need to know about Super Bowl MVP based on the past 58 Super Bowls.
1. It’s a quarterback league, and Super Bowl MVP is a QB award.
Quarterbacks have won MVP 33 times in 58 Super Bowls. That's 56.9% of the time and even more common lately at 13 of the last 18 — a 72% hit rate over almost two decades for the league's most important position.
At some sportsbooks you can bet Any QB to Win MVP (-160, bet365), and traditional odds are in your favor — but most Super Bowls don't have Saquon Barkley.
2. That leaves 26 non-QB MVPs, including co-defensive MVPs in 1977.
Believe it or not, defense is the most likely non-QB Super Bowl MVP with 10 defensive winners compared to nine wide receivers and seven running backs. The 10 defenders include three linemen, four linebackers, two safeties and a corner.
Worth noting: No tight end has won the award.
3. The Super Bowl MVP will come from the winning team.
Back in Super Bowl V, Cowboys Hall of Fame LB Chuck Howley won MVP in a losing effort. These days, voters are instructed to choose from the winning side.
So we need someone on the winning team, most likely the quarterback — but if it's not the winning QB, this thing might be wide open. Five of the last eight Super Bowl MVPs were priced under +200, and 12 of the last 15 were under +1000.
What would it take for Mahomes or Hurts to win, and is Barkley worth the price of admission? What about the other Chiefs and Eagles weapons, and are any of the long shots worth nibbling?
Let's rank the candidates in tiers from most to least likely Super Bowl MVP winners and make a betting verdict on each.
Tier I — The Clear Favorite
1. Patrick Mahomes +120
Hi, have you met Patrick Mahomes?
Mahomes will go for history on Sunday. No NFL team has ever won three straight Super Bowls, and only Bart Starr and Terry Bradshaw have ever even won consecutive Super Bowl MVPs. Mahomes has the chance to make it three straight, and he's appropriately priced as the heavy favorite.
Mahomes already has three Super Bowl MVPs, even though he hasn't had particularly overwhelming statistical lines in any of them:
- Super Bowl LIV vs. 49ers: 26-for-42, 286 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INT, rush TD
- Super Bowl LVII vs. Eagles: 21-for-27, 182 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT, 44 rush yards
- Super Bowl LVIII vs. 49ers: 34-for-46, 333 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 66 rush yards
That's an average stat line of 267 yards and 2.7 touchdowns, certainly not bad, but it's not like he's running away with this — it just turns out that good production from the best player on the planet plus the usual narrative is more than enough to make Mahomes the easy winner pick each time.
Nobody needs to explain to you why Mahomes would win MVP in a Chiefs victory. By my count, he would've been the clear MVP choice in at least 12 of Kansas City's 17 wins this season, and probably as many as 14 or 15. That's a lot!
But you still shouldn't bet Mahomes to win MVP.
This isn't even a vote of confidence against Mahomes — it's just the math.
You can now bet the Chiefs moneyline at -110 (ESPN Bet), so it might feel tempting to grab Mahomes at +120 as a proxy for a Chiefs win and sneak in some extra value on your bet.
The math doesn't support it. The Chiefs moneyline bet is priced at 52.4% implied, while Mahomes MVP is at 45.5%. If we assume Mahomes can only win MVP in a Kansas City victory, the math says he has to win MVP in at least 87% of all Chiefs victories for that to be a +EV bet.
I'm picking the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl, and I absolutely expect Mahomes to be named MVP. But I'm still not betting it.
VERDICT: Mahomes is awesome — and by far the most likely MVP — but the math says he's just not a smart bet. You're better off just betting the Chiefs moneyline.
Tier II — The Dueling Eagles
2. Jalen Hurts +375
Books have the wrong second favorite tabbed for MVP. History overwhelmingly says MVP simply goes to the quarterback of the winning team, and yet Jalen Hurts is not first or second in MVP odds.
Instead, Saquon Barkley is the first non-QB to be top two in Super Bowl MVP odds since 2003. I think those odds are dead wrong, and they're buying bettors value on Hurts.
I wrote about why books got the rushing props all wrong for the Super Bowl, in part because I expect the Chiefs to hold Barkley in check by limiting him from exploding for long runs. I'm also backing the Chiefs in the Super Bowl specifically because I don't think Hurts is good enough to go mano a mano with Mahomes and win a passing game.
But what if I'm right about defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo putting this game on Hurts' shoulders — but wrong that he's not able to win it?
We already know Hurts is going to get the Tush Push runs, which give him important first downs and likely a touchdown or three in key spots. I also love Hurts as a runner and especially scrambler in this game. But what if he's able to stand and deliver in the pocket too, hitting his talented receivers and matching Mahomes as a passer?
If Hurts can play Mahomes even close to even, given all of Philadelphia's advantages elsewhere, the Eagles will have an excellent chance of winning.
At +375, Hurts only has to win MVP in about 42% of all projected Eagles wins for this to be good value. That's a huge bargain, especially since Hurts was priced +140 in the last Super Bowl.
Barkley's presence is buying huge value on Hurts, and remember: the winning QB has won MVP in 13 of the last 18 Super Bowls!
VERDICT: Unlike Mahomes, Hurts MVP is a great way to invest in the Eagles, even as something of a hedge against the Chiefs. This is easily the best option of the three most likely winners; I'll be playing Hurts +375 even though I'm also betting the Chiefs moneyline.
3. Saquon Barkley +260
The regular-season MVP results came through on Thursday evening and revealed Saquon Barkley as the second runner up, the best finish by a running back since Todd Gurley finished second in 2017.
Barkley has been the story of this Eagles team and, in many ways, the story of the season. He had a shot to break the all-time rushing record in Week 18, and he's clearly been Philadelphia's MVP all season long.
Going through game by game, Barkley would likely have been MVP in at least eight or nine Eagles games this season — including all three playoff games so far.
But that's all in the past, and many of those huge games came against teams like the Commanders, Rams, and Giants — those are far worse run defenses than Barkley will face on Sunday. The Chiefs' run defense ranks top eight in yards per carry, yards per game, and yards before contact and top three in yards after contact and explosive run rate. Kansas City was also the best tackling team in the league this season, according to PFF.
If the Eagles play Eagles football and Barkley is great, Philadelphia likely wins — but there's little reason to believe Steve Spagnuolo and this talented Chiefs defense will just sit there and allow that to happen.
When Barkley can't rip off those 50-plus-yard runs, he often runs 20 times for a meager 60 or 70 yards in his remaining runs. That's no MVP performance, and the Chiefs didn't allow a 100-yard RB rusher all season, nor has it allowed a 100-yard playoff rusher in 18 games.
Do you know the last time a running back won Super Bowl MVP?
It was back in 1998 when Terrell Davis won it, making RBs 0-for-26 at winning MVP since then.
That doesn't mean Barkley can't win it, but it does mean he's the worst bet on the board at +260 since he'd have to be MVP in 56% of all theoretical Eagles victories over the Chiefs for that to be the right play.
VERDICT: Barkley is the worst Super Bowl MVP bet on the board. He's simply priced far too short, and if the Eagles win, it's much more likely because one of Barkley's Eagles teammates helped them do it.
Tier III — The Other Weapons
4. DeVonta Smith +6600
There's little doubt who the three most-likely Super Bowl MVPs are — Mahomes, Hurts, Barkley in some order — and there's a big drop-off after that.
But while books universally seem to price three Chiefs and Eagles weapons in a tier after that, I think the tier should be four names — and the one missing, DeVonta Smith, is my most likely MVP of the quartet.
Smith was my MVP pick in the last Super Bowl matchup. He was terrific, catching seven of nine targets for 100 yards in the second-best playoff game of his career, but did not win MVP.
Typically, Smith is Philadelphia's zone buster while A.J. Brown is the Eagles' man beater, and Kansas City ranks top 10 in the NFL in most man coverage played. But Jalen Hurts ranks top three in many metrics versus man, but outside the top 20 against zone, and I expect Steve Spagnuolo to lean into this by mixing up coverages and leaning heavily into zone.
In three games against Spagnuolo and the Chiefs, Smith has thrived. He's had at least six catches and 99 yards in all three matchups: 6/99, 7/100 and 7/122. He's proven time and again that he's able to beat Spags' coverage and make himself available to Hurts.
Smith to hit 100+ yards at +700 at bet365 is a tasty price, and he's +600 to lead the Super Bowl in receiving yards at DraftKings. But he's also priced far too long at +6600 to win Super Bowl MVP, literally double his price last time around. He'll be a big part of what Philly does well if it wins.
VERDICT: Smith is the best value play on the board among non-QB offensive players. He's priced far too long and wrongly treated as a long shot. He's an excellent MVP bet.
5. Xavier Worthy +3100
I love Xavier Worthy in this game; I think he's the key to the Chiefs' attack.
We know what Vic Fangio's Eagles defense will do. Philadelphia will take away the middle of the field and the deep ball with its extensive zones, and the Eagles are excellent covering RBs and TEs, too. But the way you beat Cover 3 and Cover 4 zones are with horizontal speed and by throwing to the flats — that's where Worthy thrives.
Worthy ranks in the 99th percentile in EPA per play in the flats, and he has a 90+ PFF grade on both short passes and passes behind the line of scrimmage, averaging 7.5 yards after the catch on those plays. Worthy will be a key weapon for Mahomes getting the ball out quickly to his top playmaker and let him attack the edge.
So why isn't Worthy a great MVP bet?
Mahomes.
It's just hard to win MVP with Mahomes taking such a huge MVP share in all Chiefs wins, and even as much as I like Worthy, his odds are still pretty short and he has to win MVP in almost 6% of all Chiefs wins to make this bet worthwhile. That doesn't seem like much, but remember, we think Mahomes wins MVP in something like 85% of all Kansas City wins so there's just not much MVP equity left.
Put it another way: Worthy was excellent against Buffalo. He caught six balls for 85 yards, including that one contested 26-yarder, and he found the end zone, too. And he would've never sniffed MVP in that game because Mahomes beat Josh Allen with three TDs and would've been MVP every time.
Worthy's best path to MVP is doing something special on a play where Mahomes won't get credit — an explosive run, a trick play where he gets to throw, maybe a big special teams play. If he does that and has a big receiving game, maybe he steals the award. But at that point, you're better off just building a Worthy SGP.
VERDICT: I love Worthy to have a big Super Bowl, but you're better off playing props or building an SGP than betting on Worthy against Mahomes' MVP equity.
6. A.J. Brown +3500
A.J. Brown is the most talented receiver in this game, and the Chiefs typically play a lot of man. Brown is the highest-graded receiver in the league against man at PFF. He has the ability to totally take over a game.
Brown was awfully quiet the first two Eagles playoff games, with just three catches for 24 yards combined. But he channeled his inner excellence last time out against the Commanders with 8/96 and a touchdown.
Still, Brown just doesn't really fit the typical profile of a Super Bowl MVP receiver, where guys like Julian Edelman and Cooper Kupp have racked up big volume and moved the chains all game. That's DeVonta Smith, and Brown may only get four-to-six touches all game.
He'd probably need to score twice, one of them long, and at that point, you're better off just building a Brown SGP.
VERDICT: There was no game this year where A.J. Brown would've been the Eagles MVP. He hasn't been utilized in a way that wins this award under Kellen Moore.
7. Travis Kelce +1600
Sorry to be the Anti-Hero, but I just can't get anywhere close to betting Taylor Swift's boyfriend at this short of a price.
Kelce is a legend and an absolute monster in the playoffs. In 15 games over the last five postseasons, he's caught 122 balls for 1,407 yards and 14 touchdowns, with at least one score in 11 games and at least 71 yards in all but his last time out. He's been dominant at every turn.
This just doesn't look like the right matchup for Kelce.
Philadelphia is the best in the league defending the middle of the field — where Kelce typically thrives — and the Eagles are also top five by DVOA defending tight ends. That doesn't mean a player as talented as Kelce can't get his, but it's just not a great matchup — and the Chiefs have shown they're happy to use Kelce as more of a decoy to draw in the defense and open up routes to other targets when Kelce can't find daylight.
If you search Super Bowl history for a tight end MVP, it's nothing but a Blank Space.
Of course, no tight end has ever been as famous as Taylor Swift's boyfriend either, and there's always the chance of some wild narrative swing if Kelce proposes or announces his retirement before the game. Unfortunately, it feels like all that Kelce narrative power and history has been more than baked into his number already.
Kelce would have to be MVP in about 11% of all Chiefs wins for this to be playable, and I can't find a game where Kelce was Kansas City's MVP since at least the 2022 regular season — and even then, only because he caught three touchdowns.
VERDICT: Don't Blame Me. It's probably not great Karma, but I just can't recommend betting Kelce to win MVP at anywhere near this price. Hope this doesn't cause any Bad Blood.
Tier IV — The Defensive Long Shots Worth Nibbling
Those names above are priced as clear favorites over the rest of the field, and for good reason. These are starry, top-heavy teams, and the best players typically win Super Bowl MVP.
But Malcolm Smith, Dexter Jackson and Larry Brown are Super Bowl MVPs, too, so we can definitely get a surprise winner in this small-sample space.
The only other Eagle worth mentioning on offense is Dallas Goedert, and his receiving yards over was my first bet of the Super Bowl, but even a great day of 8/80/1 doesn't sniff MVP. Marquise Brown and DeAndre Hopkins likely only get a couple touches each, which Mahomes will get partial credit for. Kareem Hunt has an unsavory background that would likely prevent voters from supporting him.
I'm not interested in betting offensive long shots in this matchup — but I love to bet on defense.
I already wrote at length about why I love to bet on defense in the Super Bowl, so you can read the full argument there. We've seen 22 defensive touchdowns in 58 Super Bowls, more than one every three, and we've also had a defensive MVP in 15.5% of all Super Bowls, including four this century.
My favorite Super Bowl bet on the board is simply any defensive player to win MVP. You can bet that at +1500 at ESPN BET, or you can get closer to +2000 building it position-by-position at FanDuel.
The last time these two teams met, Kansas City LB Nick Bolton returned a Hurts fumble for a score, then appeared to score a second touchdown on a bang-bang play later. That TD got overturned, but had it stood, Bolton surely would've been MVP.
In a game with an oblong ball and split-second decisions, one huge defensive play could swing everything. Here are three individual defenders I'm sprinkling on.
Nick Bolton +50000
Bolton nearly won MVP in the last Super Bowl matchup, with eight tackles and that scoop-and-score fumble return.
He averages 8.5 tackles per game and is always in the middle of the action, especially against a run-heavy opponent. Bolton is always a threat for a stray sack or interception. He's priced far too long at 500-to-1.
Nolan Smith +30000
Smith is my favorite Eagles defender bet. He leads all NFL players in sacks this postseason with four, and he's had at least one sack in five of his last six games.
Smith is an elite speed rush off the edge, and he'll do so against Kansas City's weak offensive tackles. Mahomes doesn't lose often in the postseason, but when he does, it's almost always because he's pressured. Smith can change the game on one play.
Drue Tranquill +100000
I don't even have anything exciting to say about Tranquill. He just happens to be second on the Chiefs in tackles and plays about 75% of the snaps, and three of the four defensive MVPs in the Super Bowl this century were linebackers. If you're that involved in everything, you're more live than 1000-to-1.
It's not about getting the best defender out there — Chris Jones and Jalen Carter are priced too short — it's just about finding that one huge game-changing play, and you gotta be on the field to make it.
