Game day for Chiefs vs. Eagles has arrived, and I have my list of Super Bowl picks and predictions below.
After releasing a pick on Monday and Tuesday after the conference championships, I released three props on Wednesday. My running file of prop picks is now 10 deep. You can find bets on players like Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Xavier Worthy and more.
Expert Super Bowl Picks, Prop Predictions
- Jalen Hurts First Rush Over 2.5 Yards (-130, DraftKings)
- Jalen Hurts Most First Quarter Rushing Yards (+950, DraftKings)
- Xavier Worthy First Catch Under 9.5 Yards (-130, ESPN BET)
- Oren Burks Interception (+2400, FanDuel); First Interception (+5000, BetMGM)
- Over 5.5 Eagles Players To Record a Reception (+138, FanDuel)
- QB Patrick Mahomes Under 36.5 Pass Attempts (-119, DraftKings)
- WR Xavier Worthy SGP (+475, BetMGM)
- Xavier Worthy Under 5.5 Receptions (-130, BetMGM)
- Jaylen Watson To Record an Interception (+950, FanDuel) & First INT (+2100, FanDuel)
- Dallas Goedert Receptions Ladder (6+ at +130, 7+ at +310; bet365)
Jalen Hurts First Rush Over 2.5 Yards (-130)
Bet made on Wednesday, Feb. 5.
This prop can be found under "Rushing Props" at DraftKings.
Last year, we hit this on Christian McCaffrey. Hurts is our guy this year.
Hurts' median first rush this season was six yards. Going back to 2022, it's 4.5 across 54 games. In that span, 33 of 54 have cleared this total. Only seven of these were tush pushes, and one still cleared 2.5!
That means on 47 non-tush-push rushes, Hurts' median first carry went for 10 yards.
Extending this a little more, Hurts has had 60 carries on the Eagles' first drive of the game in that 54-game span. His median was four yards. Those carries are usually designed rushes, and only seven of those 60 first-drive carries were tush pushes. Of Hurts' 60 carries on the Eagles' first drive, 33 cleared 2.5.
In that same 54-game span, 58% of Hurts' first-quarter carries have gone for three or more yards.
Hurts faces the Chiefs here, and they have allowed the second-highest rate of scrambles per dropback in the NFL this season. Kansas City has allowed a median of six yards on first-half scrambles and seven in the first quarter. Overall, the Chiefs allow 7.9 yards per scramble, which is right at the NFL average. Overall, though, that all increases the chances that Hurts' first carry is a scramble, which will tend to have a longer rush associated with it than a tush push.
It's hard to project a true distribution for a player's first carry, but this is good at -150 on 2.5. I still like the over at 3.5 at -110 or better.
Jalen Hurts Most First Quarter Rushing Yards (+950)
Bet made on Wednesday, Feb. 5.
This prop can be found under "Game Leaders" and then "1Q Leaders" at DraftKings.
Hurts has led Eagles in two of the 17 games this season that saw them gain at least one rushing yard in the first quarter. He had 23 rushing yards in the first quarter in each of those games. Hurts had two other games with 41 and 44 yards, but Barkley still managed to lead the team in rushing in those first quarters.
Also, Hurts' yards-per-carry average was highest in the first quarter of all four quarters.
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has said the Chiefs' focus is on limiting Barkley. The Chiefs also allow the second-highest rate of scrambles per dropback. That could force Hurts to scramble, and he averages nine yards per carry when he does that. The Chiefs allow 7.9 yards per scramble, so Hurts' usual rate is unlikely change much here.
It's also unlikely that a Chiefs player leads this category. Philadelphia has the second-best run defense in the league and a Chiefs player has had 23 or more rushing yards in a first quarter just four times this season. The highest Kansas City rushing leader in a first quarter this season was 41, and Hurts has done that or more twice.
Both the Chiefs and Eagles defer to the second half on the coin toss, so there's no advantage there as each team has a similar likelihood of starting with the ball.
I have this closer to +825 as fair odds, so I'm more in line with FanDuel, which has this at +790.
Xavier Worthy First Catch Under 9.5 Yards (-130)
Bet made on Sunday, Feb. 9.
Since Week 11, Worthy has had his latest first target in a second at the 12:40 mark left in the second quarter. That’s noteworthy because it’s when JuJu Smith-Schuster returned and DeAndre Hopkins was in full swing with this offense.
So, in the period of the game before that 12:40 mark, Worthy has seen 18 targets in the nine games he’s played. His median air yards is two, and his median air yards on receptions is zero. His median reception length during that time, though, is 8.5.
Since Week 14, Worthy has had 80% usage or higher in all six games and his latest target was with 13:20 left in the second quarter.
In the period of the game before that point in the second quarter, Worthy has seen 10 targets in six games. The median air yards on those targets is zero, as is the median air yards on receptions. Six of his nine receptions were less than 7.5 yards, and we’re getting 9.5 here.
The Eagles allow the fourth-lowest yards-per-reception average to opposing receivers and the lowest yards-after-catch rate (4.66) and yards after catch over expectation (-1.05) in the NFL.
Oren Burks Interception (+2400, FanDuel); First Interception (+5000, BetMGM)
Bet made on Sunday, Feb. 9.
Patrick Mahomes throws a disproportionate rate of his interceptions on short passes over the middle of the field.
Over the last three seasons, just 17.4% of his pass attempts were to that part of the field, but 31.6% of his interceptions have been to that part of the field. His interceptions have been evenly distributed between safeties and middle linebackers.
Using back-of-the-napkin math, there’s a 50% chance of an interception and one-quarter of them go to middle linebackers. Burks and Zack Baun play the most snaps for the Eagles, so that’s about +2300 fair odds.
Burks is in coverage on 92.5% of pass plays compared to 86% for Baun, who’s +1900 and +2500 in the markets we’re betting Burks on here.
The Eagles’ lockdown trio of cornerbacks should force more targets over the middle of the field than usual, as well.
It’s likely that if there’s an interception, it’ll be the only one of the game.
If I’m betting an interception, I’m betting first INT, too.
Over 5.5 Eagles Players To Record a Reception (+138)
Bet made on Wednesday, Feb. 5.
This one is listed under "Receiving Props" at FanDuel.
A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are all 98% likely to have a catch. Saquon Barkley isn't far behind at about 90%. One or more of Jahan Dotson or the Eagles' RB2 on the day (Kenneth Gainwell if he's healthy) will be just over 75%. If both hit, that's over 5.5, boom.
If not, I'm still showing around a 50-50 chance that another player has a catch, and there are plenty of ways to get there.
One of Johnny Wilson or Craig Calcaterra would be the most likely players to get a catch. Parris Campbell or E.J. Jenkins are the less likely.
There are a lot of other ways to get to over 5.5. It's the Super Bowl, so you pull out all the stops. We could see a lineman or Jalen Hurts make a catch, or a fake punt run that leads to an unlikely pass catcher. Injuries are also part of the game and can open opportunities in-game.
I have the chance of this hitting at 47.5%, which translates to +138. That gives us great value, and I'd play it down to +115.
Xavier Worthy Under 5.5 Receptions (-125)
Bet made on Wednesday, Jan. 29.
Xavier Worthy has been an absolute workhorse of late for the Chiefs, but I think his recent performances have pushed this line up a bit too high.
Even if Worthy’s volume remains high, his recent efficiency is also too high. He has caught 73% of passes over his last nine games, which is 6% over expected.
In the playoffs, Worthy has lined up out wide or in the slot on 95.8% of snaps, which would match him up with one of the Eagles’ three-headed monster at cornerback featuring Darius Slay, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean.
When out wide, Worthy lines up more often on the left, which would matchup him up against Mitchell most of the time. Mitchell allows the lowest reception per route faced among Eagles corners. Worthy’s expected catch rate should be 6.5% less against the Eagles corners, in addition to the 6% regression we’re already expecting.
I’m projecting Worthy for five receptions with a 61% chance he stays under 5.5. I’ve already parlayed this with him to score a touchdown for +475 at BetMGM.
Dallas Goedert Receptions Ladder (6+ at +160, 7+ at +310)
Bet made on Wednesday, Jan. 29.
The most-bet prop already this week is Dallas Goedert’s receptions over. I’m siding with the public there but will go a step further.
This is one of the most likely Eagles games of the season that could see them face a trailing game script. That would benefit Goedert.
The Chiefs allow a target on 19.3% of routes run, but their cornerbacks all allow a sub-18% rate. Goedert, though, lines up out wide or in the slot less than 40% of the time. That means 60% of the time, he’ll be in spots that the Chiefs allow a target rate north of 22%.
In the six games that Goedert, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith all played this season, Goedert had the second-highest target rate behind Brown. Also, when Jalen Hurts is under pressure, he targets Goedert at the second-highest rate when all three are on the field. The same applies for blitzes.
That means this is a good matchup for Goedert since the Chiefs are a top-five team in both pressure rate and blitz rate.
I’m projecting Goedert for 5.2 receptions, but the ladder really kicks in if the Eagles are playing from behind. I would recommend the Goedert ladders here and also look to parlay some of these markets that correlate with Philadelphia playing from behind.
Jaylen Watson To Record an Interception (+950) & First INT (+2100)
Bet made on Wednesday, Jan. 29.
This pick starts with Hurts, whose 3.2% turnover-worthy-play rate is higher than Patrick Mahomes at 2.2%. Hurts has also had passes defended on 11% of his attempts, while it’s just 9.2% for Mahomes.
Yet, Mahomes has 11 interceptions to Hurts’ five.
The places on the field that Hurts most frequently throws an interception are thrown deep to his left and short to his right. That’s where Watson comes in.
Watson lines up short to the right as the Chiefs’ left cornerback on about 70% of his snaps. He had seven passes defensed, five pass breakups and two dropped interceptions in just eight games this season. He has three interceptions on 24 career passes defensed, which is a bit unlucky since that number would usually lead to four or five INTs. Watson has also broken up 15% of all passes targeted toward him, which is much higher than the average 6.9% rate.
I'll also bet Watson to get the game's first interception. In a game that could only have one interception thrown, I'm betting the first INT market, as well, for both Burks and Watson.
Patrick Mahomes Under 36.5 Pass Attempts (-119)
Bet released on Tuesday, Jan. 28.
Three-time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes is averaging 41 pass attempts per game in his four Super Bowl appearances. However, I'm backing his under 36.5 pass attempts in this one.
Mahomes has averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game with a median of 37.5, but this is a spot that he may need to pass less for a couple of reasons.
The Eagles love to control the clock and possess the ball at the highest rate in the league, clocking 32 minutes of possession per game. When the Chiefs do have the ball, they may find more success on the ground against an Eagles defense that was No. 1 in the NFL in defensive pass success rate allowed. Despite the Eagles amassing a 14-3 regular season record and playing with the lead for 67.5% of defensive snaps, Philly allowed just the 20th-most pass attempts per game, when teams should be throwing on them plenty in trailing game scripts.
That meant the Eagles ranked 21st in defensive pass rate over expected (PROE) faced, with teams running 2.4% more than expected given game-specific situations.
One underrated factor here is that the Eagles extremely strong coverage, which may force Mahomes into more scrambles on dropbacks that might have been pass attempts originally. We've already seen this playoffs that Mahomes is willing to use his legs, racking up his two highest rushing totals of the whole season in the Chiefs' first two playoff games. The Eagles allowed the 10th-most scrambles in the NFL in no small part thanks to their three shutdown corners who make finding open options a difficult task.
Of course, if Kansas City is playing from behind, which is maybe just as likely in this game as any game this season, that will make staying under this number a bit tougher. If that is the case, the Eagles allowed just 31.9 pass attempts per game in the regular season while forcing opponents into trailing game scripts more than two-thirds of the time.
I'm projecting between 34.5 and 35 pass attempts for Mahomes, so I'm comfortable taking this down to -135 at 36.5 or 35.5 at -110.
Parlay: Xavier Worthy Under 5.5 Receptions & Anytime TD Scorer (+475)
Bet released on Monday, Jan. 27.
Xavier Worthy has been a focal point of the Chiefs offense, especially in the playoffs with 13 targets and three rush attempts in the Chiefs' two wins. That includes six red-zone touches in the form of five targets and one carry.
However, Worthy gets a difficult matchup against an Eagles secondary that has been one of the best in the NFL, especially in preventing targets and catch rate to opposing wide receivers. Only the Texans have allowed a lower catch percentage to opposing wideouts. Despite the Eagles' stellar record and playing 67.5% of their defensive snaps with the lead, they've allowed a bottom-half rate of receptions to opposing receivers.
Specific to Worthy, in the current rotation with Hollywood Brown back in the fold, Worthy has lined up out wide nearly half the time and in the slot, inline, or in the backfield the other half.
When Worthy lines up out wide, it's been with a slight lean to the offensive left side (26% left vs. 21% right). There, he'd line up against standout Eagles rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell, who's allowed the lowest target rate on the team by far while limiting opposing receivers to a sub-55% catch rate.
Worthy's catch rate this year is 63% when we include the playoffs but based on his expected matchups, I'm projecting his catch rate closer to 59% on just under 8.5 targets. That means I project his receptions right at around with plenty of value under 5.5 receptions. The best line on that bet is -139 at DraftKings with BetMGM not far behind at -140.
However, I also show value on his anytime touchdown scorer odds at +165 at BetMGM thanks to both his rushing and receiving ability and red-zone volume. Especially in this matchup, Worthy may line up in multiple places in the red zone where he'd avoid the Eagles' trio of stud CBs in Mitchell, Darius Slay and fellow rookie Cooper DeJean.
With that, it makes a lot of sense to parlay the two knowing we'll get a negative correlation odds boost here.
Ordinarily, a parlay at -140 and +165 would pay out +354, but the negative correlation of an under on receptions with a touchdown bet gets us to +475 at BetMGM.
Since I show value on both individual bets and we're getting the inverse-correlation boost, I'll make that my first Super Bowl prop bet for one-half unit.
