We have two weeks to make our Super Bowl predictions, and I've already hit the ground running.
After releasing a pick on Monday and Tuesday after the conference championships, I released three props on Wednesday. This file is where you'll be able to find all of my picks. It will be updated as I find more.
Expert Super Bowl Prop Picks
- QB Patrick Mahomes Under 36.5 Pass Attempts (-119, DraftKings)
- WR Xavier Worthy SGP (+475, BetMGM)
- Xavier Worthy Under 5.5 Receptions (-130, BetMGM)
- Jaylen Watson To Record an Interception (+950, FanDuel)
- Dallas Goedert Receptions Ladder (6+ at +130, 7+ at +310; bet365)
Xavier Worthy Under 5.5 Receptions (-125)
Bet made on Wednesday, Jan. 29.
Xavier Worthy has been an absolute workhorse of late for the Chiefs, but I think his recent performances have pushed this line up a bit too high.
Even if Worthy’s volume remains high, his recent efficiency is also too high. He has caught 73% of passes over his last nine games, which is 6% over expected.
In the playoffs, Worthy has lined up out wide or in the slot on 95.8% of snaps, which would match him up with one of the Eagles’ three-headed monster at cornerback featuring Darius Slay, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean.
When out wide, Worthy lines up more often on the left, which would matchup him up against Mitchell most of the time. Mitchell allows the lowest reception per route faced among Eagles corners. Worthy’s expected catch rate should be 6.5% less against the Eagles corners, in addition to the 6% regression we’re already expecting.
I’m projecting Worthy for five receptions with a 61% chance he stays under 5.5. I’ve already parlayed this with him to score a touchdown for +475 at BetMGM.
Dallas Goedert Receptions Ladder (6+ at +160, 7+ at +310)
Bet made on Wednesday, Jan. 29.
The most-bet prop already this week is Dallas Goedert’s receptions over. I’m siding with the public there but will go a step further.
This is one of the most likely Eagles games of the season that could see them face a trailing game script. That would benefit Goedert.
The Chiefs allow a target on 19.3% of routes run, but their cornerbacks all allow a sub-18% rate. Goedert, though, lines up out wide or in the slot less than 40% of the time. That means 60% of the time, he’ll be in spots that the Chiefs allow a target rate north of 22%.
In the six games that Goedert, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith all played this season, Goedert had the second-highest target rate behind Brown. Also, when Jalen Hurts is under pressure, he targets Goedert at the second-highest rate when all three are on the field. The same applies for blitzes.
That means this is a good matchup for Goedert since the Chiefs are a top-five team in both pressure rate and blitz rate.
I’m projecting Goedert for 5.2 receptions, but the ladder really kicks in if the Eagles are playing from behind. I would recommend the Goedert ladders here and also look to parlay some of these markets that correlate with Philadelphia playing from behind.
Jaylen Watson To Record an Interception (+950)
Bet made on Wednesday, Jan. 29.
This pick starts with Hurts, whose 3.2% turnover-worthy-play rate is higher than Patrick Mahomes at 2.2%. Hurts has also had passes defended on 11% of his attempts, while it’s just 9.2% for Mahomes.
Yet, Mahomes has 11 interceptions to Hurts’ five.
The places on the field that Hurts most frequently throws an interception are thrown deep to his left and short to his right. That’s where Watson comes in.
Watson lines up short to the right as the Chiefs’ left cornerback on about 70% of his snaps. He had seven passes defensed, five pass breakups and two dropped interceptions in just eight games this season. He has three interceptions on 24 career passes defensed, which is a bit unlucky since that number would usually lead to four or five INTs. Watson has also broken up 15% of all passes targeted toward him, which is much higher than the average 6.9% rate.
Patrick Mahomes Under 36.5 Pass Attempts (-119)
Bet released on Tuesday, Jan. 28.
Three-time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes is averaging 41 pass attempts per game in his four Super Bowl appearances. However, I'm backing his under 36.5 pass attempts in this one.
Mahomes has averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game with a median of 37.5, but this is a spot that he may need to pass less for a couple of reasons.
The Eagles love to control the clock and possess the ball at the highest rate in the league, clocking 32 minutes of possession per game. When the Chiefs do have the ball, they may find more success on the ground against an Eagles defense that was No. 1 in the NFL in defensive pass success rate allowed. Despite the Eagles amassing a 14-3 regular season record and playing with the lead for 67.5% of defensive snaps, Philly allowed just the 20th-most pass attempts per game, when teams should be throwing on them plenty in trailing game scripts.
That meant the Eagles ranked 21st in defensive pass rate over expected (PROE) faced, with teams running 2.4% more than expected given game-specific situations.
One underrated factor here is that the Eagles extremely strong coverage, which may force Mahomes into more scrambles on dropbacks that might have been pass attempts originally. We've already seen this playoffs that Mahomes is willing to use his legs, racking up his two highest rushing totals of the whole season in the Chiefs' first two playoff games. The Eagles allowed the 10th-most scrambles in the NFL in no small part thanks to their three shutdown corners who make finding open options a difficult task.
Of course, if Kansas City is playing from behind, which is maybe just as likely in this game as any game this season, that will make staying under this number a bit tougher. If that is the case, the Eagles allowed just 31.9 pass attempts per game in the regular season while forcing opponents into trailing game scripts more than two-thirds of the time.
I'm projecting between 34.5 and 35 pass attempts for Mahomes, so I'm comfortable taking this down to -135 at 36.5 or 35.5 at -110.
Parlay: Xavier Worthy Under 5.5 Receptions & Anytime TD Scorer (+475)
Bet released on Monday, Jan. 27.
Xavier Worthy has been a focal point of the Chiefs offense, especially in the playoffs with 13 targets and three rush attempts in the Chiefs' two wins. That includes six red-zone touches in the form of five targets and one carry.
However, Worthy gets a difficult matchup against an Eagles secondary that has been one of the best in the NFL, especially in preventing targets and catch rate to opposing wide receivers. Only the Texans have allowed a lower catch percentage to opposing wideouts. Despite the Eagles' stellar record and playing 67.5% of their defensive snaps with the lead, they've allowed a bottom-half rate of receptions to opposing receivers.
Specific to Worthy, in the current rotation with Hollywood Brown back in the fold, Worthy has lined up out wide nearly half the time and in the slot, inline, or in the backfield the other half.
When Worthy lines up out wide, it's been with a slight lean to the offensive left side (26% left vs. 21% right). There, he'd line up against standout Eagles rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell, who's allowed the lowest target rate on the team by far while limiting opposing receivers to a sub-55% catch rate.
Worthy's catch rate this year is 63% when we include the playoffs but based on his expected matchups, I'm projecting his catch rate closer to 59% on just under 8.5 targets. That means I project his receptions right at around with plenty of value under 5.5 receptions. The best line on that bet is -139 at DraftKings with BetMGM not far behind at -140.
However, I also show value on his anytime touchdown scorer odds at +165 at BetMGM thanks to both his rushing and receiving ability and red-zone volume. Especially in this matchup, Worthy may line up in multiple places in the red zone where he'd avoid the Eagles' trio of stud CBs in Mitchell, Darius Slay and fellow rookie Cooper DeJean.
With that, it makes a lot of sense to parlay the two knowing we'll get a negative correlation odds boost here.
Ordinarily, a parlay at -140 and +165 would pay out +354, but the negative correlation of an under on receptions with a touchdown bet gets us to +475 at BetMGM.
Since I show value on both individual bets and we're getting the inverse-correlation boost, I'll make that my first Super Bowl prop bet for one-half unit.
