We have two weeks to make our Super Bowl predictions, and I've already hit the ground running.
On Monday, I released my first parlay pick, and then I found another pick on Tuesday. This file is where you'll be able to find all of my picks. It will be updated as I find more.
Expert Super Bowl Prop Picks
- QB Patrick Mahomes Under 36.5 Pass Attempts (-119, DraftKings)
- WR Xavier Worthy SGP (+475, BetMGM)
Patrick Mahomes Under 36.5 Pass Attempts (-119)
Bet released on Tuesday, Jan. 28.
Three-time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes is averaging 41 pass attempts per game in his four Super Bowl appearances. However, I'm backing his under 36.5 pass attempts in this one.
Mahomes has averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game with a median of 37.5, but this is a spot that he may need to pass less for a couple of reasons.
The Eagles love to control the clock and possess the ball at the highest rate in the league, clocking 32 minutes of possession per game. When the Chiefs do have the ball, they may find more success on the ground against an Eagles defense that was No. 1 in the NFL in defensive pass success rate allowed. Despite the Eagles amassing a 14-3 regular season record and playing with the lead for 67.5% of defensive snaps, Philly allowed just the 20th-most pass attempts per game, when teams should be throwing on them plenty in trailing game scripts.
That meant the Eagles ranked 21st in defensive pass rate over expected (PROE) faced, with teams running 2.4% more than expected given game-specific situations.
One underrated factor here is that the Eagles extremely strong coverage, which may force Mahomes into more scrambles on dropbacks that might have been pass attempts originally. We've already seen this playoffs that Mahomes is willing to use his legs, racking up his two highest rushing totals of the whole season in the Chiefs' first two playoff games. The Eagles allowed the 10th-most scrambles in the NFL in no small part thanks to their three shutdown corners who make finding open options a difficult task.
Of course, if Kansas City is playing from behind, which is maybe just as likely in this game as any game this season, that will make staying under this number a bit tougher. If that is the case, the Eagles allowed just 31.9 pass attempts per game in the regular season while forcing opponents into trailing game scripts more than two-thirds of the time.
I'm projecting between 34.5 and 35 pass attempts for Mahomes, so I'm comfortable taking this down to -135 at 36.5 or 35.5 at -110.
Parlay: Xavier Worthy Under 5.5 Receptions & Anytime TD Scorer (+475)
Bet released on Monday, Jan. 27.
Xavier Worthy has been a focal point of the Chiefs offense, especially in the playoffs with 13 targets and three rush attempts in the Chiefs' two wins. That includes six red-zone touches in the form of five targets and one carry.
However, Worthy gets a difficult matchup against an Eagles secondary that has been one of the best in the NFL, especially in preventing targets and catch rate to opposing wide receivers. Only the Texans have allowed a lower catch percentage to opposing wideouts. Despite the Eagles' stellar record and playing 67.5% of their defensive snaps with the lead, they've allowed a bottom-half rate of receptions to opposing receivers.
Specific to Worthy, in the current rotation with Hollywood Brown back in the fold, Worthy has lined up out wide nearly half the time and in the slot, inline, or in the backfield the other half.
When Worthy lines up out wide, it's been with a slight lean to the offensive left side (26% left vs. 21% right). There, he'd line up against standout Eagles rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell, who's allowed the lowest target rate on the team by far while limiting opposing receivers to a sub-55% catch rate.
Worthy's catch rate this year is 63% when we include the playoffs but based on his expected matchups, I'm projecting his catch rate closer to 59% on just under 8.5 targets. That means I project his receptions right at around with plenty of value under 5.5 receptions. The best line on that bet is -139 at DraftKings with BetMGM not far behind at -140.
However, I also show value on his anytime touchdown scorer odds at +165 at BetMGM thanks to both his rushing and receiving ability and red-zone volume. Especially in this matchup, Worthy may line up in multiple places in the red zone where he'd avoid the Eagles' trio of stud CBs in Mitchell, Darius Slay and fellow rookie Cooper DeJean.
With that, it makes a lot of sense to parlay the two knowing we'll get a negative correlation odds boost here.
Ordinarily, a parlay at -140 and +165 would pay out +354, but the negative correlation of an under on receptions with a touchdown bet gets us to +475 at BetMGM.
Since I show value on both individual bets and we're getting the inverse-correlation boost, I'll make that my first Super Bowl prop bet for one-half unit.
