Let me start off by saying a lot goes into handicapping sports, especially the NFL — traditional stats, advanced stats, weather, matchups and so on and so forth.
Another box to check, in addition to the ones above, is the game officials and the historical data they bring to the table.
This year, Ron Torbert will be refereeing his second Super Bowl. His first was back in February 2022, when the Rams took down the Bengals. Last year’s referee was Bill Vinovich working his third Super Bowl, and Carl Cheffers worked his third the year before.
The 2025 Super Bowl referee will be Torbert, who began his NFL officiating career in 2010 as a side judge before being promoted to referee in 2014.
Here's a breakdown of his history with both the Chiefs and Eagles.
Ron Torbert's Refereeing Record
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes is 3-1 straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in games officiated by Torbert. In those four games, Mahomes has thrown nine passing touchdowns and one interception, and he's thrown at least 225 passing yards in each.
Those four games have come against the Browns, Bills and Bengals (twice). The Chiefs were called for 33 penalties and the opposition 22 in those games.
Going a bit further, the Chiefs have been called for offensive holding 10 times and the opponents nine. Also, the Chiefs have benefited from four defensive pass interference penalties but were penalized for that six times.
Philadelphia Eagles
Torbert has officiated six games with Hurts, who is 4-2 SU in those matchups. Since the start of the 2022 season, Hurts has won four straight games with Torbert's officiating crew in charge.
Nick Sirianni's Eagles have played seven times with Torbert refereeing.
The Eagles offense has thrived when Torbert has its games, scoring 34, 33, 34 and 24 points in the last four games they've been matched up.
Ron Torbert Penalty Trends
Despite the low-penalty nature of the Rams vs. Bengals Super Bowl that Torbert officiated, he has consistently ranked among the officials who call the most penalties.
Over the past two seasons, Torbert ranks third among the 17 NFL head referees in total penalties called. Specifically, he has called 94 offensive holding penalties, ranking in the top four in this category in both seasons.
The Rams vs. Bengals Super Bowl only saw six penalties called between the two teams, which is the fewest since 1999.
Betting Trends
Historically, Torbert’s officiated games have leaned toward the favorite. Over the past decade, favorites in games he has officiated have a 76.1% straight-up (SU) win rate, with a $100 bettor profiting $1,772 from consistently backing favorites. That's the highest profit total among referees in that span.
Against the spread (ATS), favorites are 90-71-2 (56%) in games that Torbert has worked over the last decade, which is also the best rate of any referee.
This season, favorites went 13-4 SU and ATS in games officiated by Torbert. Notably, in all 11 of his seasons as an official, favorites have won at least 11 games each season, including a 38-12 record over the last three years.
Over/Under Trends
In games officiated by Torbert with a total of 47 or higher, the under is 32-24-1 (57%). When the total is below 47, the under is just 60-61.
With Torbert’s officiating history, strong trends favoring favorites, and his past experiences with both the Chiefs and Eagles, his impact on Super Bowl 59 could be significant both on the field and in the betting markets.
