2026 NFL Draft Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Arch Manning | +240 |
| Garrett Nussmeier | +430 |
| Drew Allar | +500 |
| LaNorris Sellers | +650 |
| Cade Klubnik | +750 |
| Keldric Faulk | +1200 |
| T.J. Parker | +1600 |
| Rueben Bain Jr. | +2500 |
| Kadyn Proctor | +2500 |
| Francis Mauigoa | +3000 |
| Caleb Downs | +3500 |
| Miller Moss | +3500 |
Odds via FanDuel as of Tuesday.
Let’s talk dollars and cents.
Cam Ward, who was just drafted first overall by the Tennessee Titans, will be signing a four-year contract in the coming days worth approximately $48.8 million. Two-thirds of that deal will reportedly be guaranteed.
In the pre-NIL era, it was a no-brainer for a consensus top-five pick to declare early.
Even if the stories are to be believed, and “bag men” paid off the likes of Cam Newton, those were six-figure paydays, not seven. So, the money the NFL was offering was transformational.
This is no longer the case for players at the very top of the college football market.
Arch Manning's NIL Dilemma
Arch Manning has NIL deals with Red Bull and Panini America. He has the highest NIL valuation in the sport, sitting in the $6.6 million neighborhood, according to On3.
And keep in mind, he isn’t even a full-time starter yet.
If he were to put together a Heisman-caliber season and lead Texas to the National Championship game, there’s no telling how much money he could be offered to stay for his senior season on the Forty Acres.
If well-heeled friends of the program offered Arch as much as he’d make in his first season in the NFL — roughly $13 million — then I no longer consider it a forgone conclusion that he’d bolt after his junior season.
The other element at play is the Manning family history. Archie Manning loomed large over his sons' NFL futures, making it known that there were franchises on their wishlist.
Peyton Manning never said a bad word about the New York Jets, but it was the worst-kept secret in the NFL that the Jets would have taken him first overall in the 1997 NFL Draft had he been available. He stunned the media when he announced that he would return to Knoxville instead of playing for Bill Parcells.
Eli Manning’s story was even more memorable. Using his father and agent, Tom Condon, as intermediaries, Manning stonewalled the San Diego Chargers, refusing to play for them. Their standoff with the Chargers worked, and he was traded to the New York Giants, his preferred destination.
Arch Manning grew up in New Orleans and attended Isidore Newman just as his famous family members had. If the New Orleans Saints hold the top pick in the NFL Draft, I would be shocked if he returned to Austin.
But there are a host of lousy teams that will be vying for the No. 1 pick, including the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns.
That brings us to the betting market.
Why Garrett Nussmeier Could Go No. 1
Arch Manning is currently priced at 2-1 to become the first player selected in the 2026 NFL Draft. Penn State’s Drew Allar (+225) and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier (+450) are next in line.
While Allar has the tools, I still question his ability to deliver against top competition. If you pull his QBR scores from the Nittany Lions' showdown with Ohio State and his three-game sample from the College Football Playoff, it comes out to a 50.75 (out of 100) average.
Toss in the crippling interception he threw in the national seminfinals against Notre Dame, and it’s easy to see talent evaluators poking holes in his resume.
Nussmeier, however, has my attention at this price point.
He has a howitzer for an arm, a quick release, and he’s playing under a head coach who produced a No. 1 pick just two years ago.
This fall, Nuss could face six or more ranked opponents. If he cuts down on his turnovers (12 interceptions, three lost fumbles) and shows out in those big games, he’ll have general managers salivating.
