The 2024 campaign has been the year of the underdog — especially the big 'dogs.
Teams getting seven or more points are a perfect 4-0 straight up. It’s the first time 'dogs in that position have been above .500 through the first three weeks of a season since 1956. Meanwhile, underdogs of six-plus points are 8-5 SU and 12-1 against the spread, covering by an average of 9.3 points per game. That’s the single best ATS start for big 'dogs in NFL history.
However, there hasn’t been a double-digit spread in a single game, the longest we’ve gone without one in NFL history.
That might change this week as the Patriots have been 10.5-point 'dogs against the 49ers throughout the week. This is the closest we’ve gone to a game potentially closing with a double-digit spread this year.
If it occurs, it would be extremely rare territory for the Patriots. The last time they closed as a double-digit 'dog was Week 3 of the 2001 season against Peyton Manning and the Colts. It was Tom Brady’s first career start after Drew Bledsoe went down the week before. It was the first taste we got of Brady's magic as he led New England to a 44-13 win.
So, can history repeat itself if the Patriots close as a double-digit ‘dog for the first time in over two decades?
Several trends point to it being an uphill climb.
The 49ers enter the game after blowing a 14-point lead in last week’s loss to the Rams. According to Action Network’s Director of Research Evan Abrams, San Francisco would be the 12th double-digit favorite after blowing a 14-plus point lead the week before since 2001. The first 11 teams won straight up and were 7-3-1 ATS.
Additionally, a San Francisco squad that was one of the prohibitive Super Bowl favorites is 1-2 after dealing with a plague of injuries. Favorites of seven or more points, who are under .500 on the season, are 85-17 straight up since 2016, winning by an average of 10.3 points per game. Meanwhile, this would be just the 15th time since 2010 that a team under .500, coming of a loss, closed as a double-digit favorite. The first 14 all won and were 10-4 ATS.
On the other hand, the biggest underdogs each week of the 2024 season won straight up. These very same Patriots were the biggest 'dog of Week 1, getting eight points against the Bengals only to upset them in a 16-10 win. The Raiders (+9) were the biggest 'dog in Week 2 against the Ravens, but rallied for a 26-24 win while the Commanders (+7.5) were the biggest 'dog of Week 3, but emerged with a 38-33 win.
