It might be a bit surprising to see the 49ers 1.5-point favorites this week at home against the Chiefs. After all, the Chiefs have been underdogs just 13 times with Patrick Mahomes as their quarterback over the years.
So, how have they performed in the rare times they’ve been in this situation?
To say they’ve been successful would be an understatement. Mahomes and the Chiefs are 10-3 straight up as underdogs, which is the best straight-up mark of any team in the Super Bowl era. (One of those wins came against the 49ers in the Super Bowl this year.)
They’ve also been money in the bank against the spread, going 11-1-1. They haven’t just been successful as a ‘dog, though. They’ve hit at an impressive clip in close games in general, going 24-10 SU and 25-8-1 ATS as a favorite of three points or less, or an underdog.
While seeing Mahomes and Kansas City as underdogs is rare, seeing them getting points in this particular spot is especially unusual. The 49ers are 3-3 on the year, so this marks only the second time in Mahomes' career – and the first since 2017 – that he’s an underdog against a team .500 or worse.
The Chiefs success as an underdog isn’t the only reason to be bullish on their chances. Mahomes is 46-12 SU in his career playing on the road or at a neutral site. He’s also 18-5 both SU and ATS when laying three points or less, or as a ‘dog.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs are coming off a bye, which is good news for backers as they're 28-7 SU and 18-16-1 ATS on extended rest. Head coach Andy Reid’s been exceptional in this spot dating back to 2003, going 62-27 SU (70%) and 50-38-1 ATS (57%). He’s also 19-12-1 ATS on the road on extended rest and 16-9-1 as an underdog. The Chiefs are also 24-5 SU since 2019 on extended rest.
Overall, it’s been quite the impressive start for the Chiefs as they aim to become the first team to ever three-peat as Super Bowl champions.
Kansas City’s just the fifth reigning champ to start the following season 5-0 SU. The others are the 2019 Patriots (8-0), 2015 Patriots (10-0), 2011 Packers (13-0) and 2007 Colts (7-0). However, that’s not necessarily a recipe for long term success as none of those teams returned to the Super Bowl that year.
As for this Super Bowl rematch, the public is betting the Chiefs to cover the spread in large numbers. According to Action Network's public betting data, 83% of the bets are on the Chiefs to cover the spread and 56% of the bets are on the Chiefs moneyline as of Wednesday.
History says this is a spot where Mahomes thrives. We'll find out if Sunday's Super Bowl rematch has the same result as February's thriller.
