49ers vs. Rams Odds & Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Rams 1H -2.5 |
| Elijah Mitchell Under 63.5 Rushing Yards |
Rams 1H -2.5
Michael Arinze: The dogs were barking in Week 9 as favorites went just 4-10 ATS for a loss of 6.34 units. That included three outright losses by teams ranked in the top five of Football Outsiders’ Total DVOA who were favored by at least seven points.
Those teams include the Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys. Both the Bills and Cowboys rebounded with wins by at least four touchdowns on Sunday. That leaves just the Rams, who'll have a chance to exact their revenge on Monday night against the 49ers.
There's no question the three teams, as mentioned above, are all quality football clubs. And if the coaches were searching for a way to get their players' attention, they can point to those losses for motivation.
Los Angeles has been a busy team over the last few days after acquiring linebacker Von Miller via trade and signing free-agent wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. The Beckham signing is a bit of a blessing in disguise because the Rams then lost wide receiver Robert Woods to an ACL injury during Friday's practice.
Sean McVay and company will turn their attention to a 49ers team that is 3-5 and has yet to produce a signature win this season. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is still searching for the magic that helped guide his team to Super Bowl LIV. Garoppolo is currently 20th in Total QBR (50.0), while his counterpart, Matthew Stafford, leads the league in that category with a 69.8 rating.
Look for the Rams to start fast in this game after their disappointing performance against the Titans last week. We saw both the Bills and Cowboys come out hot in the first half of their games on Sunday.
The first half has been a bugaboo for the 49ers as they come into this game on an 0-6 ATS run. Los Angeles is available at -2.5 across most sportsbooks, so you shouldn't have any problem locking the Rams in at that price.
Elijah Mitchell Under 63.5 Rushing Yards
Mike Randle: Los Angeles’ rush defense has struggled to start the year, allowing big games to Chicago's David Montgomery (108 yards) and Arizona's Chase Edmonds (120 yards). Lately, however, they have been much improved, allowing opponents just 2.7 and 3.1 yards per carry the past two weeks.
Elijah Mitchell is not an every-down running back, and has only averaged a 64% snap share this season. Against the Cardinals last week, Mitchell only managed 36 rushing yards as a result of game script.
I expect running back Jeff Wilson Jr. to see an increased workload with JaMycal Hasty (ankle) ruled out. Wilson should see the passing-game work, which could be substantial given the 50.5-point game total.
Mitchell has battled lingering injuries throughout the season, which has led to high variance in his rushing production. He has three games with over 100 yards and three games with 43 or fewer rushing yards. I'm backing an increasingly tough Rams rush defense and taking Mitchell under this 63.5 total. I would actually wait to bet this until closer to game time, as I expect this number to continue to rise. I would not bet it below the current 63.5 yard total.
