In one of the more intriguing matchups of Week 1, the 49ers head to Chicago to take on the Bears in Matt Eberflus’ head-coaching debut.
It’s officially the Trey Lance era in San Francisco as he lines up against fellow second-year quarterback Justin Fields. This is the lowest total of Sunday’s slate as the 49ers come in as 6.5-point favorites.
Here is a same-game parlay to get your Sunday started:
Alt Spread +7.5 (-125)
It’s the Trey Lance era in San Francisco, but I believe the market is giving the 22-year-old too much respect.
The weather conditions around gametime are not exceptional, with double-digit winds and rain expected. This should be a ground-and-pound game from both offenses, limiting possessions and churning the clock.
George Kittle is dealing with a groin injury and his status remains unknown; he will likely be a game-time decision. If he misses the game, I love Chicago even more in this spot. And even if Kittle plays, he’ll likely be a bit hobbled. I don’t expect much from the tight end.
Tack on the fact that Chicago ranked third in passing yards allowed last season, and the Bears should remain within striking distance throughout. They’re also playing in a raucous home environment in Matt Eberflus’ head-coaching debut — already a plus to 2022 with Matt Nagy out the door.
Expecting a slower, run-heavy approach, I like the Bears to cover. And if that’s not enough, here’s a couple of favorable trends that point in Chicago’s direction:
- Week 1 underdogs who won 4-6 games last year are 65-33-2 ATS, or 66%, beating the spread by an average of 3.78 points per game.
- Underdogs in games with a total below 42 are 86-54-3 ATS, or 61.4%, since 2018.
I’m buying up over a touchdown to be safe here. It’s a same-game parlay, so adding some cushion in the long run is worth it.
Game Total Under 41.5 (-125)
I’ve already hinted at liking the under earlier, but there’s just too many signs I can't ignore.
These are two of the top six defenses from a season ago — in terms of yards allowed — and I expect similar success in 2022.
Not only does George Kittle’s question mark provide a boost to the Chicago spread, but it does toward the under as well. Kittle is a dynamic receiver and great blocker, and if he’s ruled out – or plays at less than 100% – that could quickly translate to broken plays and rushes for Trey Lance, who enters this game with minimal NFL experience.
With the aforementioned rain and heavy winds expected at Soldier Field, I could see both Kyle Shanahan and Matt Eberflus taking the ball out of their young quarterbacks’ hands and hit the trenches.
To me, this game poses as a low-scoring bout where you look up at the scoreboard in the middle of the fourth quarter and it’s 13-10. Time should fly and I trust both defenses that have proven to be reliable in years’ past to limit explosive plays.
I’d buy the total up to 41.5 just to jump past the key number of 41.
Justin Fields
Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Staying along the trend of ground-and-pound football, I’m going with the rushing yards over of a quarterback. No, it’s not Trey Lance.
Toward the end of last season Justin Fields looked more calm and confident under center. Those strides translated on the ground as well, as he eclipsed this 33.5-yard mark all but once over the final seven games of the year.
In the 33-22 loss to San Francisco in 2021, Fields ran for 103 yards and a touchdown.
Following the narrative of a rush-heavy game, this number is too low for Fields. The dual-threat quarterback is only getting more comfortable at the pro level and his legs are an asset that shouldn’t be overlooked.
Cole Kmet
Anytime TD (+350)
It’s time for the Cole Kmet show in Chicago.
Jimmy Graham is out of the picture and that means there are plenty of red-zone targets to be had. Graham caught three touchdowns on eight targets last year, leaving Kmet scoreless in his sophomore season.
But I believe he’ll find the back of the end zone in Week 1. For starters, Kmet was targeted a team-high 12 times in the red zone; he caught six of them.
The Parlay (+2006, FanDuel):
- Chicago Bears +7.5 (-125)
- Under 41.5 (-125)
- Justin Fields o33.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
- Cole Kmet Anytime TD Scorer (+350)
