The San Francisco 49ers and Denver Broncos enter this Sunday Night Football primetime game in flux.
Nathaniel Hackett looks like a poor choice in Denver while Russell Wilson isn’t playing his best football.
Meanwhile, the 49ers just lost their future starting quarterback to a season-ending injury.
But we should still find some value in the player props market. More specifically, we can use PrizePicks, which allows you to parlay NFL player props together and wager real money on them in 27 different states.
Let’s dive into my two favorite PrizePicks plays for Sunday Night Football.
Javonte Williams
Over 3.5 Receptions
Hackett has been horrific from a game-strategy perspective, but there’s no doubt his offensive model massively benefits Javonte Williams.
Hackett likes using RPOs and bootlegs with Wilson, and that often leads to aerial targets for the halfback. Williams has taken full advantage of that, picking up 11 receptions in Week 1 for a whopping 65 yards.
Williams had just one reception for 10 yards in Week 2, and he dominated on the ground, but the running back still had four targets. His 33% target rate per route run is the highest on the team for those who have over two receptions.
San Francisco has a great rushing defense. The Niners finished last season second in Rush Defense DVOA and currently are fifth through two weeks. However, they are slightly vulnerable in Pass defense. They allowed the eighth-most pass attempts per game to running backs in 2021.
A.J. Johnson was the best pass defender in the front seven for San Francisco in 2021, and he’s not on the roster anymore. Just avoid Fred Warner – who has zero passes defended so far – and there should be room to run for Williams.
Even with Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater, Williams still picked up over 50 targets and over 40 receptions last season. Our Action Labs Projections have him finishing with 4.0 receptions today, and I’m willing to throw this in a PrizePicks parlay.
Pick: Over 3.5 Receptions
Deebo Samuel
Under 54.5 Receiving Yards
Deebo Samuel is still an electric receiver, but the dual-threat weapon is being used on the ground more than in the air.
Through two games, Samuel has 58 total receiving yards and 78 total rushing yards. He’s also had an identical 12 rush attempts to just 12 targets as his duties are split in the Kyle Shanahan wide-zone offensive scheme.
However, it’s also fair to consider that Samuel wouldn’t get there without his backfield duties. San Francisco has finished well below average in Pass Rate Over Expectation in every down and distance underneath Shanahan. This season, San Francisco is second-to-last in that statistic (-19.3%).
Plus, Samuel doesn’t get targets downfield, considering they want him to generate yards after the catch. His average depth of target this season is a whopping 1.0. He’s accumulated just 13 air yards to his 58 receiving yards.
Perhaps the strategy will change with Jimmy Garoppolo under center rather than Trey Lance and some injuries to the San Francisco backfield, but I highly doubt it.
Either way, our Action Labs projections mark him for only 47.3 yards today, giving us plenty of room to hit this under.
Pick: Under 54.5 Receiving Yards
