Jimmy Garoppolo is back and under center for San Francisco as the 49ers head to Denver for a Sunday Night Football bout with Russell Wilson and the Broncos.
It’s been anything but smooth for Wilson in his first year post-Seattle. Head coach Nathaniel Hackett has been heavily criticized after a 1-1 start that nearly began with back-to-back losses to the Seahawks and Texans.
Meanwhile, Garoppolo replaced Trey Lance, who will miss the rest of the season with an ankle injury, during a 27-7 blowout win in Week 2.
Can the Broncos finally put together a strong performance, or will their offense continue to struggle against a stout 49ers defense?
I’ve got just the solution for you to enjoy your Sunday Night Football — a same-game parlay! So sit back, relax and enjoy some added entertainment before the work week begins.
Jeff Wilson
Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
We know Kyle Shanahan’s affinity for the ground game and with the running back depth chart currently thin due to injury, Sunday night sets up to be a Jeff Wilson workhorse game.
In Week 2, we saw Wilson take over 50% of the snaps and that was before Tyrion-Davis Price got hurt. Now, with just Marlon Mack and rookie Jordan Mason behind him, Wilson should take a lead role and see upward of 15-20 carries.
Even with a coin flip spread, the 49ers like to run the football and stick to their roots. Tight end George Kittle is also set to return after missing the first two weeks of the year, adding another elite run blocker to the line.
Wilson finished last week with 84 rushing yards on 18 carries. He draws yet another favorable matchup against a Broncos rush defense that is bottom five, per PFF. The offensive line is healthy and with Garoppolo under center, no one should be stealing many touches from Wilson.
I do lean San Francisco in this matchup — I, like the majority, am a non-believer in Hackett — which would make this number of 58.5 even more attainable.
I doubt Shanahan plays Mack much considering he’s joining a brand new offense, and Wilson should continue to dominate the snap count — and touches — until Elijah Mitchell or Price returns.
Brandon Aiyuk
Anytime TD (+250)
The hybrid role that Deebo Samuel occupies makes Brandon Aiyuk the new WR1 in San Francisco.
Aiyuk plays the most snaps of any 49ers’ player (93.1%) and has the lone red zone target, aside from Wilson Jr. He also has great chemistry with Garoppolo.
After Lance went down with injury, Aiyuk was targeted seven times. Last year with Garopoolo, Aiyuk was the most-targeted 49er and accounted for 25% of Garoppolo’s touchdown passes.
Aiyuk is a bit undervalued in the touchdown market here. He’s below Kittle, who could be limited and is playing his first snaps of the season. Aiyuk is also Garopoolo’s favorite target near the end zone.
It’s also important to note that he also has big play ability. Even if he lines up against a hobbled Pat Surtain — depending on where Deebo Samuel is — I believe Aiyuk holds the edge.
Take the third-year receiver to score his first touchdown of the season.
Albert Okwuegbunam
Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
We’re going back to the well with Albert Okwegbunam in primetime after he came through in Week 1.
Do not be worried about the bagel he put up last week against the Houston Texans. That game was a disaster from start to finish offensively.
Okwuegbunam is the fourth-most targeted Bronco and plays nearly 60% of the snaps. Courtland Sutton will continue to garner the majority of the looks, but that also opens up space for Okwegbunam underneath.
Tack on both K.J. Hamler and Jerry Jeudy carrying injuries into Week 3, and we could see the Broncos rely more on their tight end. Even if the Hamler and Jeudy play, they’ll likely be limited in some capacity and that’ll open up more opportunities for Okwegbunam.
Last season, as the Broncos TE2, Okwuegbunam hit over the current line of 23.5 in six of the 13 games he played. He’s now the clear No. 1 and should see more usage as Wilson and Hackett get comfortable.
I expect the Broncos to make some changes to both their play-calling and approach on Sunday night. There’s a clear issue, but I trust Wilson to turn things around. This number is just way too low for me not to jump on board.
For the second time in three weeks, we ride with Okwegbunam under the bright lights!
Javonte Williams
Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Slowly but surely we’re seeing Javonte Williams take over the RB1 duties in the Denver Broncos’ offense.
After playing just 11 more snaps than Melvin Gordon in Week 1, that number more than doubled in Week 2. The result? Williams doubled his rush attempts and finished with 75 yards on 15 carries.
Williams is averaging 5.4 yards per carry this season and is only seeing his workload increase as the season progresses. In a game that should come down to the wire, I wouldn’t expect Denver to stray away from its run game.
Williams has gone over this number in nine of his 19 career games despite splitting duties with Gordon, and I expect yet another strong performance from the second-year back.
This number is far too low for Williams, who should need just 10-12 carries to eclipse 51 yards. Buy on Williams at this discount before the number jumps double digits in a few weeks.
The Parlay (+2550)
– Jeff Wilson o58.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
– Brandon Aiyuk Anytime TD (+250)
– Albert Okwuegbunam o23.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
– Javonte Williams o50.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
