Cardinals vs 49ers Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 43.5 -105o / -115u | +360 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 43.5 -105o / -115u | -460 |
This NFC West tilt will be the fifth game the NFL has played at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. Favorites are 4-0 against the spread in Mexico City and overs are 2-2.
The Cardinals are expected to start Colt McCoy at quarterback for the second straight week in place of Kyler Murray, who is nursing a hamstring injury. McCoy is 3-1 ATS as a starter for Arizona, including a perfect 3-0 mark as an underdog.
Cardinals vs 49ers Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Cardinals and 49ers match up statistically:
Cardinals vs 49ers DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 14 | 21 | |
| Pass DVOA | 7 | 19 | |
| Rush DVOA | 23 | 16 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 28 | 8 | |
| Pass DVOA | 29 | 10 | |
| Rush DVOA | 27 | 3 | |
As daunting as this matchup looks on paper for the Cardinals with a backup quarterback, backing the 49ers is by no means free money. McCoy has already proven he can beat San Francisco, leading Arizona to a 31-17 win as a 3.5-point underdog in Week 9 of last season — his first start as a Cardinal.
McCoy completed 22-of-26 passes for 226 yards and one touchdown in that game, while getting the ball out in 2.36 seconds on average. Getting the ball out quickly is his forte and will be key against a 49ers defense that ranks fourth in pressure rate (25.2%), despite blitzing at the 18th-highest rate (18.4%), per Pro Football Reference.
49ers -10 | Cardinals +10
Kliff Kingsbury is not afraid to call a pass-heavy game plan against a defense like San Francisco's, which ranks third against the run. Last week, against the Rams' fifth-ranked run defense, Kingsbury had McCoy open the game with 11 straight passes. However, the 49ers do present a tougher matchup in the sense they aren't as passive and have studs at linebacker and safety who can fly to the ball. (The 49ers rank third in defensive DVOA on short passes while the Rams are 14th.)
While McCoy has proven his mettle, this still would have been an ideal spot for Murray due to the fatigue factor created by the elevation. Estadio Azteca is about 7,200 feet above sea level, and forcing the 49ers defense to chase Murray around all day would have been a big edge for the Cardinals.
Arizona may have bigger concerns on defense than on offense. While the 49ers are known for their run game on offense, they've been more efficient through the air this season and are built to give the Cardinals pass defense fits. Vance Joseph's defense has done a good job on the perimeter, ranking first in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers and sixth versus No. 2 wide receivers, but the Cardinals have struggled mightily underneath against running backs (30th) and tight ends (31st).
Kyle Shanahan will likely feature George Kittle in this matchup, as Arizona has allowed the most targets (9.0), catches (7.5) and yards (77.8) per game to tight ends. The Cardinals have especially struggled to cover backs and receivers on plays involving pre-snap motion (see their Week 9 loss to Seattle), which Shanahan is a master at.
Betting Picks
If you're betting a side in this game, it's Cardinals or nothing, but there are some red flags with Arizona. Unlike the 49ers, the Cardinals elected not to practice in elevation to prepare for the game and could come out wholly unprepared. And despite the tempting number, we've only tracked sharp action on San Francisco as of Sunday evening. There's also the fact that underdogs have an 0-4 ATS record in Mexico, though that's obviously a small sample.
Still, I think the biggest edge to exploit in this game is the Kittle mismatch. The Cardinals have allowed nine of 11 tight ends to go over their receptions prop and seven of 11 to go over their receiving yardage prop. I prefer the over 3.5 receptions, as Kittle has posted at least four catches in four of seven games this season and in 14 of 21 (66.7%), dating back to the start of last season.
