My strategy for Monday Night Football between the 49ers and Cardinals is to create a correlated single game parlay that pinpoints the way I see the game playing out.
There are four legs in total and I break down each one below. Same game parlays don't present the best value in betting, so check out our other coverage of tonight's game here.
49ers
Moneyline
The 49ers are currently priced as double-digit favorites while playing in a field-neutral environment in Mexico. These teams have a serious mismatch in DVOA rankings. The Cardinals are 21st while the 49ers are eighth.
The biggest mismatch in the individual units comes in the trenches. Arizona's offensive line is ranked 23rd, according to Pro Football Focus, while the 49ers' defensive line is fifth in adjusted sack rate.
Rondale Moore
40+ Receiving Yards
Rondale Moore has reached 40 or more receiving yards in five of his last six games and is averaging 67.2 receiving yards per game.
Moore primarily sees time in the slot and indeed has taken snaps from there 56.6 percent of the time since DeAndre Hopkins returned to the lineup following his season-opening suspension.
With Zach Ertz now out with injury, he should see even more time, and the 49ers are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to slot receivers this season.
The game script should also see the Cardinals behind and throwing a lot, so this is a great spot for Moore.
George Kittle
40+ Receiving Yards
Kittle should feast on an Arizona defense that has struggled to defend tight ends all year long. The Cardinals are 30th in DVO against tight ends, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA.
Opposing tight ends are averaging 7.5 receptions per game and 77.8 yards per game against the Cardinals, which are both the most in the NFL. Recent tight ends that faced the Cardinals include Travis Kelce (121 yards), Darren Waller (50 yards), Dallas Goedert (45 yards and 95 yards in two games), and Tyler Higbee (73 yards).
Christian McCaffery
Anytime Touchdown
McCaffery has split time with Elijah Mitchell since he was acquired and Mitchell returned from injury, but McCaffery did see five red zone touches in Week 10.
The 49ers are favorites for a reason, and if San Francisco gets in the end zone as much as expected, McCaffery is a prime candidate. The Cardinals are allowing an average of three touchdown per game (fourth-most) and are allowing a red zone touchdown conversion rate of 67.5%, which is also the fourth-most in the league.
Running backs have scored a touchdown in four of the last five weeks against this Cardinals defense.
The Parlay (+369 at FanDuel)
- San Francisco 49ers Moneyline
- Rondale Moore (ARI) 40+ Receiving Yards
- George Kittle (SF) 40+ Receiving Yards
- Christian McCaffery (SF) Anytime Touchdown
