49ers vs Chiefs Pick & Prediction: Super Bowl Preview
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
My 49ers vs Chiefs pick & prediction for Super Bowl LVIII is on the moneyline. 49ers vs Chiefs odds (on bet365) have the 49ers listed as 1.5-point favorites on the spread with a game total of 47.5. The 49ers are -125 and the Chiefs are +105 on the moneyline.
For the second time in five years, it will be Kyle Shanahan vs Andy Reid in the Super Bowl — this time, at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. The Chiefs pulled off back-to-back road upsets over the Bills and Ravens to reach another Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the 49ers rallied from a 24-7 halftime deficit to top the Lions in the NFC Championship Game.
Let's break down it all down my Super Bowl preview and get into my 49ers vs Chiefs moneyline prediction.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have much more of data-driven advantage than a “dudes” advantage.
Brock Purdy still has to prove himself on the biggest stage, but he was incredibly impressive in the 49ers' comeback win over the Lions. The argument against Purdy is that he's a system quarterback and merely manages games. However, in the NFC Championship Game, Purdy put the team on his back and led some great drives en route to victory.
The 49ers finished the regular season second in overall DVOA and first in offensive DVOA. With Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, they might have the best skill-position group in the NFL. They also have one of, if not the best, offensive line led by Trent Williams.
Purdy might not have the flash of Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen, but he was the guy that led the league in EPA/play this season.
49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is 0-2 in his Super Bowl appearances. His 49ers lost to the Chiefs in 2019 and he was the offensive coordinator when the Falcons melted down against the Patriots in 2016. That being said, prior experience should be huge in his preparation for this rematch against Kansas City. Also, despite receiving some deserved criticism for in-game clock management and decision making, Shanahan has one of the best offensive minds in the game.
San Francisco has an elite secondary that should be up to the tall task of facing Mahomes. While the 49ers defense struggled in the first half against the Lions, they stepped up in the second half and limited Detroit to just seven points. They were a top-five defensive unit all season and, most importantly, have the linebackers to hang with Mahomes' safety blanket, Travis Kelce.
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Kansas City Chiefs
It is the same old story for Kansas City heading into the Super Bowl. Just like the Bills and Ravens, almost every metric has the 49ers as the superior team compared to the Chiefs.
However, the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo. That’s right. After the win against the Ravens, you can’t just say Reid and Mahomes are the difference anymore. Mahomes made some huge plays and Reid had some great calls in key spots, but it was defense that won the AFC Championship Game for the Chiefs.
Todd Monken was arguably the best offensive coordinator this season and Lamar Jackson will likely win the MVP, but Spagnuolo was throwing blitz designs and coverages that made the Ravens' offense look like an absolute joke.
Heading into the Super Bowl, the Chiefs have two big advantages.
The first one is obvious: Mahomes has been in these big games countless times and delivered. Then you have an elite coaching staff behind him that has a penchant for stymieing the opposition.
49ers vs Chiefs Pick
Early indications show that I will be on an island, but I am rolling with the 49ers.
The “We have Andy Reid, Steve Spagnuolo, Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes” plan has worked thus far for the Chiefs, but the 49ers have the better football team. The Chiefs defense is great, but the 49ers' is even better. San Francisco also has the best-skill position group whereas Kansas City's offense looked quite pedestrian during the regular season.
Mahomes and Kelce have turned it on in the postseason, but you can’t just take what you’ve seen over the last two weeks and ignore the larger sample from the regular season.
The Chiefs offense is susceptible to going through long stretches without scoring, such as the second half against the Ravens when they were held scoreless. Against the NFL’s top offense, they can’t afford to do that.
There will be major question marks around the matchup of Purdy vs. Mahomes, but Mr. Irrelevant showed me a lot in the second half of the NFC Championship Game. I think he is more than capable of leading the 49ers to a Super Bowl win.
If you’re brave enough to fade Mahomes, take the 49ers on a cheap moneyline.
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