I'm human, just like you. And also just like you, I'm terrified to bet against Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl. He's 9-3 straight-up (SU) in his career as an underdog and 10-1-1 against the spread (ATS).
When push comes to shove, though, I believe the 49ers will be lifting the Lombardi Trophy in Las Vegas.
Check out who will win the Super Bowl according to my 49ers vs Chiefs prediction below.
Who Will Win the Super Bowl? Our Expert's 49ers vs Chiefs Prediction
I get this is Andy Reid with extended rest and yes, this is Brock Purdy’s first Super Bowl. But the public love that has poured in on Kansas City has reached its tipping point. This is still the elite San Francisco offense that we saw hang 42 points on Dallas in early October and then again to Philadelphia nearly two months later. They’ve battled adversity in the playoffs and ripped off 27 unanswered to win the NFC Championship and rip the hopes and dreams away from Lions fans.
The numbers don’t lie. San Francisco has the No. 1 offense when it comes to DVOA. Brock Purdy is pushing every right button with a star-studded cast and leads all quarterbacks in EPA per play.
Anthony Dabbundo’s Super Bowl prediction and pick is on the 49ers moneyline. Read more here.
Kansas City may have an elite pass defense, but their chink in the armor comes in the trenches. They’re a bottom-five team when it comes to defensive DVOA against the run and now they play the Offensive Player of the Year in Christian McCaffrey? Oh, and Deebo Samuel will likely spell him, not Elijah Mitchell?
Kyle Shanahan is best when he’s creative. The lone feat that has eluded him his entire coaching career has been the Super Bowl. He has the weapons to create havoc and a quarterback that has mostly been mistake-free for the two seasons he’s played under center.
As I said earlier, I’m afraid of Mahomes. Everyone should be. The Chiefs were not expected to be here yet rattled off win after win against the AFC’s best. The 49ers on the other hand, have appeared mortal, and it took all 12 rounds before delivering the knockout punch.
Like K.C., the San Francisco rush defense has been the lone weak spot. We saw both the Packers and Lions RBs gash this team for 252 combined yards on the ground. The Niners need to get more pressure, plain and simple. It can’t just be Nick Bosa.
After you read our Super Bowl prediction article, check out our bet on the Super Bowl over/under!
I keep circling back to Shanahan and the weapons at his disposal on the offensive end. His creativity has led to San Francisco long being one of the best offenses despite Mr. Irrelevant under center.
But it’s clear Brock Purdy is more than relevant. The weapons around him provide the perfect safety blanket where there’s no real weakness on the offensive side of the ball.
Despite 70% of the bets coming in on K.C., the line shot back in favor of San Francisco and has remained steadfast at (-2). Shanahan has remained undefeated as a favorite in the playoffs (6-0 SU) and being able to squash the upset-hungry Packers and Lions has given me even more confidence that San Francisco will be ready to avenge their 2019-20 Super Bowl loss.
I may look back at this and think to myself you idiot, you really bet against Patrick Mahomes as an underdog again, this time in the Super Bowl against Brock Purdy?!
Sometimes we live and learn. Other times, we refuse to admit defeat. Give me the battle-tested 49ers to finally give Shanahan that last piece of metal that has escaped him after all these years.
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