49ers vs Chiefs Props: Deebo Samuel Super Bowl Bet
Samuel had 12 touchdowns this season (a career-high seven receiving and five rushing) despite missing two games. He's the ultimate gadget player, a top-five impact playmaker when healthy. He looked the part in the NFC Championship Game against the Lions despite nursing a shoulder injury.
Against Detroit, Samuel had 11 total touches (eight catches for 89 yards and three carries for seven yards), but didn't score (he had +125 odds). For the Super Bowl, his odds are up to +180 against a Chiefs team that is much weaker against the run than the Lions were.
For historical context, Samuel hasn't been above +160 in this market since the 49ers' Week 1 win over the Steelers. He didn't score in that game since he wasn't needed much in a 31-7 win. Now Samuel gets two weeks to heal further and head coach Kyle Shanahan gets two weeks to figure out how he'll use his playmaking receiver.
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For reference, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle have thrived against man coverage. The Chiefs, though, have only allowed 19 passing touchdowns this season, with 11 going to wide receivers and four to tight ends. Samuel isn't chopped liver against man coverage, with two receiving touchdowns against man defense this season.
Samuel is one of the only players who isn't a quarterback who I endorse to bet for Super Bowl MVP because of his yards-after-the-catch ability. He can make something happen on his own and is a threat from anywhere on the field, which is why I like him in this market.
This is one of the few 49ers touchdown props I'd endorse based on the current odds since I anticipate Samuel's Anytime TD odds will go down before kickoff on Feb. 11.
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