The NFC Conference Championship is here as the Philadelphia Eagles welcome the San Francisco 49ers to Lincoln Financial with Super Bowl aspirations on the line.
The Eagles enter fresh off a blowout win over the New York Giants while the 49ers eked by the Dallas Cowboys. San Francisco is on a 12-game winning streak dating back to Week 8 and Philadelphia is 14-1 with Jalen Hurts under center.
Here’s a same-game parlay for what is sure to be an entertaining NFC Championship Game.
DeVonta Smith
Over 66.5 Receiving Yards
Few receivers have been as dominant as DeVonta Smith in the second half of the season.
Since Nov. 20 against the Colts, Smith has hauled in at least 60 receiving yards in eight of nine games. He's surpassed 100 yards four times over that span.
A.J. Brown has battled injury of late, and while he is playing through it, the Eagles have proven the ability to sustain production from two high-level receivers. Brown struggled against New York in the Divisional Round — though the game was over by the second quarter and Philly’s game script was completely flipped — finishing with 22 yards to Smith’s 61.
In what sets up to be a more pass-heavy game script, the Eagles should favor Smith throughout. While San Francisco is dominant against the short pass, they’re just 24th in DVOA against the deep ball.
Smith burned the Giants for a 40-yard reception in the first quarter last week and he’s a big-play threat on every route. Since Nov. 14, he’s been targeted no less than eight times and his production has steadily risen because of it.
Smith has broken 20+ yard receptions in seven of his last nine games and has a good shot to do so again against the 49ers. He’s an explosive receiver and a reliable one; he could easily eclipse this number by halftime.
I’m expecting a big game from Smith, who has gone over this number in four of his last five games.
Eagles -2.5
If you’re going to give me Nick Sirianni and the Eagles laying less than a field goal against a rookie quarterback at the Linc, I’m not overthinking it and pulling the trigger.
As my colleague Simon Hunter wrote about in his best bets article, rookie quarterbacks are 0-4 in AFC/NFC Championship games and 1-3 ATS. The lone time they covered was as a double-digit underdog.
While Brock Purdy has been great with the aid of head coach Kyle Shanahan making it easy for him by utilizing the short game, the Eagles defense is no pushover. Similar to Dallas, Philly’s front seven should be able to consistently generate pressure and make Purdy uncomfortable.
The Eagles are No. 1 in pass DVOA and the duo of Darius Slay and James Bradberry should find success. Philly has a run-funnel defense, but we’ve seen both Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell battle injury this week.
McCaffrey is cleared and returned to practice, but who knows if his calf can hold up, while Mitchell was limited and is questionable to play.
Unlike Dak Prescott, we should see a much better game out of Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense. They’re No. 1 in rush DVOA and have a plethora of receiving weapons that should threaten San Francisco.
In a coin flip game, give me the Eagles at home. They have the more experienced quarterback, a defense that won't make life easy for Purdy and the healthier roster.
Brandon Aiyuk
Over 45.5 Receiving Yards
All eyes have been on Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey during San Francisco’s playoff run, but don't forget about Brandon Aiyuk.
Aiyuk had just two receptions for 26 yards against Dallas, but he had broken 50+ in five of the last six games prior to that. Since Oct. 9, he is 12-of-14 to the over of the current number of 45.5.
Per Sal Vetri, in games where San Francisco enters as an underdog, Aiyuk averages 81.5 yards per game. With an aDOT of 11.1, he likely only needs four receptions to crack this number, and we should see a heavier passing game from the 49ers.
McCaffrey’s health could be an issue and while Samuel will receive constant work, we should also see more Aiyuk.
This is a correlated play with the Eagles covering. If San Francisco can get out to an early lead and control the ground game, Aiyuk may be limited. But if Philly jumps ahead early and forces Purdy to drop back, a steady dose of Aiyuk is expected.
In games where Aiyuk sees 5+ targets, he has finished with 50+ receiving yards in 10 of 12. The trends point toward Aiyuk’s over and I’m hopping aboard.
The Parlay (+558)
- DeVonta Smith over 66.5 Receiving Yards
- Eagles -2.5
- Brandon Aiyuk over 45.5 Receiving Yards
Pick: 3-Leg Same Game Parlay |
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