49ers vs. Giants Odds
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The San Francisco 49ers spent the past week in the New York metropolitan area after their Week 2 win over the New York Jets, and will return to MetLife Stadium for a Week 3 matchup with the New York Giants.
San Fran’s injury count grew in Week 2 and the team will be down not only star defenders, but also quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and other offensive starters.
The reigning NFC champion's opponent, the Giants, are also trying to move on from injuries, namely to star running back Saquon Barkley, who suffered a torn ACL in Week 2 against the Bears.
While the players not suiting up will be the story, there is still a game to be played, and I believe that the Giants may be able to make more adjustments in the wake of the Barkley news against the Niners' team-wide ailments, and the home team may be a live dog.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers ruled out nine total starters in Week 3.
Both Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas suffered torn ACLs on the same turf San Fran is playing on Sunday. The team will also be without its top two running backs, Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman, in addition to Jimmy G while George Kittle will miss his second straight game with a knee injury.
San Francisco's backup quarterback is Nick Mullens, who has experience with Kyle Shanahan after playing in eight games for the 49ers in 2018, going 3-5 while tossing 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Mullens went 3-5 against the spread over that stretch and 0-1 as a favorite. Despite his record against the spread, Mullens was a pleasant surprise for San Francisco, completing 64% of his passes and throwing for over 284 yards per game.
He is capable in the pocket, and while he has not played meaningful time before last Sunday in the second half against the Jets, Shanahan is going to be comfortable with his backup leading the offense.
This is a Giants defense that has done a fine job of limiting passing success this season, especially on early downs. They've allowed just a 26% success rate on first down passes through two games, according to SharpFootballStats, which is easily the best mark in the league. This stat is defined by a play on first down that gains 40% or more to the sticks, and the Giants have been adept at dominating first down and putting teams in second-and-long situations.
For the Niners, a leaky offensive line is going to need to push back the Giants' front seven that has gotten decent pressure in the backfield thus far and put Mullens and third-string running back Jerick McKinnon in short-yard situations.
This game may be defined by which team wins the third down battle.
The Giants are bottom three in the league in getting off the field on third down, allowing a conversion rate of over 54%, while San Fran has not been great at keeping drives alive so far. The banged-up 49ers are converting at a 37% rate, 25th in the NFL so far.
It may not be pretty, but Mullens and Shanahan have spent a lot of time together and Shanahan is still one of the brightest offensive minds in the league. He's going to scheme a sound game plan for his reserve signal caller, but this offense is going to be severely limited and may be playing from behind the sticks a lot.
New York Giants
Barkley's injury is a gut punch for a Giants team trying to take a step forward, but I do think schematically this can benefit the club. New York has been trying to get Saquon going behind a poor offensive line that led to stalling drives through the opening two weeks.
Now, it is time to take the training wheels off second-year quarterback Daniel Jones, who has shown some signs of growth even if the numbers don't indicate that. Nearly rallying from down 17, Jones has put together some impressive drives amidst some turnovers. It will take some time, but Jones is getting better week by week.
What the Giants are going to have to focus on is getting Jones some time to throw downfield, his 6.42 yards per pass attempt is down from his rookie year and bottom five in the NFL. Against a backup-laden San Francisco defensive front, Jones may be able to sit back easier and string together completions.
Big Blue will be without Sterling Shepard, who is battling a toe injury, but Jones seems to have real chemistry with second-year wide out Darius Slayton, who has 15 targets in two games. Expect the Giants to lean on Dion Lewis in the passing game as well, using his pass-catching in the backfield to jumpstart drives.
On defense, the Giants have been surprisingly stout.
While the third down defense is still a work in progress, New York is allowing the fourth-fewest total yards so far and have been able to lock down for halves at a time, but still have yet to put it together for a complete game. With a passing game that has limited big plays thus far, and a defense that has gotten some push up front, maybe a barren Niners offense is coming at the right time for New York to put together a complete defensive performance.
49ers-Giants Pick
I’m going to side with the Giants here.
Something that's been apparent is that new Giants coach Joe Judge has his team playing inspired ball. Heading into this matchup against a worn down Niners club that is set to play on a field they have made clear they do not feel is particularly safe, I think this is the perfect storm for the Giants to show out.
I was able to get the Giants at 4, and with it sitting at +3.5 now, that is the threshold to where I would bet it. If you want to wait and see how the Giants look without Barkley, I also like them in the second half, where their healthier roster can start to lean on a bruised and battered Niners club — not to mention a potential Judge rally cry at halftime and a similar second-half performance to Week 2 against Chicago.
PICK: Giants +3.5 (if it drops to 3, wait to take Giants 2H)
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