49ers vs Packers Odds, Picks, Player Props | NFL Best Bets
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -115 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -105 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +375 |
Packers vs 49ers Pick
By Stuckey
I think this line should be over 10, but we're getting a bit of a discount on the 49ers due to recency bias after what the Packers did to the Cowboys last week. It feels like many are forgetting just how dominant San Francisco was all season when fully healthy, sans the loss to Baltimore.
I bet Green Bay in the Wild Card Round, but don't have the same positive sentiment ahead of this matchup.
For starters, Dallas didn't have an efficient run game all season, but that couldn't be further from the truth for San Francisco, which led the NFL in both Rush Success Rate and Rush EPA (by a wide margin). That spells trouble for a vulnerable run-funnel Green Bay defense.
Additionally, the Packers have struggled to defend the middle of the field, running backs, tight ends and wide receivers in the slot. That's a nightmare combination against this offense, especially when you consider Brock Purdy has absolutely shredded Cover 3 defenses, which he'll likely see plenty of on Saturday.
In my opinion, the biggest mismatch of the weekend is Kyle Shanahan (who has had extra time to prepare, to boot) vs. Joe Barry. I just don't see how Green Bay gets any stops without flukes.
Don't forget, this Green Bay defense didn't grade out well even against a very easy schedule of opposing offenses — it even got to face the Rams with Brett Rypien at quarterback, the Vikings with Jaren Hall and Giants with Tommy DeVito — and grade out as a very poor tackling team.
On the other side of the ball, Jordan Love has been playing at an ultra-high level. He's arguably been the best statistical quarterback since Week 11. However, even if he continues this extremely high level of play, which is far from a given, the San Francisco defense should get a few more stops.
There are a few holes in the 49ers' stop unit, but this is still a top-five unit that will be healthier with the likely return of Arik Armstead and Dre Greenlaw. With Armstead, the 49ers will finally have their full complement of defensive linemen, which should lead to a substantial increase in pressure rate across the board.
Also, the Packers have one of the worst special teams units in the league, which matters even more on the road in the playoffs, assuming they don't just blow the 49ers out of the water like they did to the Cowboys.
Green Bay has been awesome of late, but I think the love has gone a bit too far after one game. This is a team that also lost in December on the road to Tommy DeVito. It's still a defense that ranks in the bottom six in both overall and weighted DVOA. The rested 49ers at home still have a much better offense, defense and special teams.
I'm not a huge fan of laying these big numbers in the NFL, especially with Shanahan, who tends to get a bit conservative with leads in the second half of games. And this game will certainly be played at a very slow pace with both offenses operating at a snail's pace.
However, even if he does go that route and go with a much heavier run approach with a lead, that should work just fine against a Green Bay defense that ranked 22nd in Rush EPA.
Ultimately, I just don't see how the Packers will get enough stops to keep this close, while San Francisco's defense should, even if Love continues his recent ridiculous run.
Pick: 49ers -9.5 or lower
49ers vs Packers Player Props
RB Christian McCaffrey
Over 89.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Running backs don’t enter the MVP conversation simply because they are the most productive player on the best offense in the league. It takes a special kind of campaign in order to receive such a high level of praise, and in his first full season with San Francisco, Christian McCaffrey has been a dream come true for the 49ers.
McCaffrey, one of the most versatile backs in the league, oftentimes doesn’t get the credit he deserves as a ballcarrier due to his ability to make big plays in the passing game. But make no mistake about it: McCaffrey was the best ballcarrier this season by a wide margin as he led the NFL in rushing by nearly 300 yards, averaging over 91 yards per game on 5.4 yards per carry.
The 49ers hit a rough patch in the middle of the season, which caused McCaffrey's numbers to dip a little bit as his rushing line for this contest sits at 88.5 yards. But the freight train is full steam ahead at this point.
McCaffrey rushed for 90-plus yards in six of his last eight regular-season outings while crossing the century mark in half of those affairs. He should be in for another big game against a Packers defensive front that ranks 24th in yards allowed per rush attempt.
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WR Jayden Reed
Anytime TD (+210)
I’ve been banging this drum all year — if there’s one “weakness” for the 49ers defense, it’s shifty slot receivers getting the touchdowns. Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, Christian Kirk, DeVonta Smith and Tyler Boyd are some of the receivers who had big games against San Francisco.
If I’m betting on a Packers player, I’m immediately looking at Jayden Reed. The rookie receiver not only fits the profile, but he’s done pretty well against zone coverage, which the Niners play at an above-league-average rate.
Romeo Doubs has great metrics against zone coverage, but I’d rather go with Reed given his rushing ability (two rushing TDs) and that he lines up in the slot more than Doubs.
