Packers vs. 49ers Odds
The 6-seeded 49ers are set to take on the 1-seeded Packers in the Divisional Round of the 2022 NFL Playoffs. Find our expert's projected odds, another analyst's early pick on the spread, and a recap of each team's seasons below.
Packers vs. 49ers Schedule
Packers vs. 49ers Projections
Our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, reveals his initial projections for the spread and over/under based on his model.
These are subject to change before kickoff, though, so be sure to check out our NFL PRO Projections — i.e. real-time consensus projections based on models of six experts (including Sean).
- Spread: Packers -3.5
- Total: 46
Koerner: The 49ers' two most important defensive players — Nick Bosa and Fred Warner — were sidelined during their wild-card win over the Cowboys. Their availability will impact the odds for this matchup.
For context, here are my projected player values for San Francisco's defense:
Packers vs. 49ers Predictions
Pick: 49ers +5.5 (to +4.5)
Brandon Anderson: This is the matchup I've been waiting weeks to see.
Remember when I recommended betting on the 49ers to win the NFC at +2500 odds as well as the Super Bowl at +5000 odds heading into Week 18? It was because I loved how they matched up against their likely playoff opponents — specifically the Packers.
Once the Niners got past the first round, this was the likely opponent, and the matchup I wanted for San Francisco.
And it's all about the run game and playoff football.
Green Bay’s defense ranked 22nd in Football Outsiders' DVOA on the season, including 28th against the run. That's a bottom-five unit that's been a serious problem all season, but will be a massive one against a creative, run-centric offense like San Francisco.
The 49ers feature the best tight end in the world in George Kittle as well as the league's finest offensive lineman in Trent Williams. Each has a case as the most valuable non-QB in the NFL. The rest of the O-line is terrific, too, as is do-everything fullback Kyle Juszczyk. The Niners win in the trenches, and they win with Kyle Shanahan's scheme. Elijah Mitchell has been terrific as a one-cut rookie runner while Deebo Samuel is a dynamic weapon out of the backfield.
The 49ers are built for playoff football. They gash opposing defenses, especially bad run Ds like Green Bay, and they’re built to win in the trenches and play in the cold.
Sometimes, the best defense against Aaron Rodgers is simply keeping him on the sidelines. The Niners chew up clock and go on long, sustained drives. Green Bay ranked 24th in DVOA defensively on first down this season and 26th on second down. San Francisco's offense ranked first on first and early downs. That is a ginormous problem for the Packers.
Kittle could also be a major issue. Green Bay ranks 28th in DVOA versus opposing tight ends, so he could have a monster game.
This San Francisco offense is the exact wrong matchup for a shaky Packers defense that’s gotten worse, not better, late in the season. But of course, the Packers aren’t here because of defense — Green Bay will score, and Rodgers could have a big game throwing to Davante Adams.
San Francisco's weak spot is its secondary, with key injuries and a lack of depth all season, and ranks second-to-last against opposing WR1s with 88 yards per game allowed. Barring weather issues in the tundra, Rodgers should be able to pass on this defense. But it's worth noting San Francisco ranked inside the top four of defensive DVOA over the final eight weeks of the regular season, including first against the run and a respectable 10th against the pass.
The Niners can hold their own defensively.
They finished top-seven in DVOA on offense and defense. And while the Packers offense is definitely better — and while Rodgers is far more reliable than Jimmy Garoppolo — the 49ers offense is more versatile and their defense can do things, too. They certainly did their job against the Cowboys and Rams with the season on the line the past two weeks. They can pass the ball, too — they have the NFL's second-best passing attack over the last eight weeks, right behind the Packers.
The truth is that the advanced metrics suggest these teams are about equal. Heck, San Francisco actually ranks higher than Green Bay in season-long DVOA. The Packers defense drags down their ranking, and so does their worst-in-the-league special teams.
The 49ers are the more balanced team and they’re playing better football late in the season.
Injury news will be key this week.
The 49ers saw their defensive stars Nick Bosa and Fred Warner sidelined on Sunday; Bosa is their top pass rusher while Warner mans the middle of the field. Bosa will have to pass concussion protocols, and Warner looked in a lot of pain but came back late against the Cowboys. They would be big losses, but neither will be on the field much if San Francisco runs the ball down Green Bay’s throat all game.
The Packers will also try to get Jaire Alexander and Za’Darius Smith back after missing all season. Neither will help the shoddy run defense much, but those two are stars. So is LT David Bakhtiari, who was good in his brief Week 18 return.
I’m on the 49ers all the way here, but it’s reasonable to think we could get a more favorable line later. The public may panic on San Francisco after its late scare and Green Bay is always a super public team. The injury news could lean Green Bay’s way, too. It would be awesome if we got to that +7 key number.
But I’ve waited long enough. This is the one. This is the matchup I wanted.
The Packers start slow, and their leaky defense could put them in a hole all game. I’m grabbing the points with the 49ers and playing the moneyline, which is as high as +200 as of writing (shop for the best line here).
I think the 49ers go to Lambeau, put the Packers defense on their heels all game, and win outright. Watch the injury news and line movement and pounce when the time is right. I’d love the +7, but also don’t want this to fall past +4.5, and I bet the moneyline already.
How 49ers Reached 2022 NFL Playoffs
- Wild Card Round: Beat Cowboys, 23-17
- Regular Season: 10-7
Chase Howell: The 49ers had an up-and-down season but were able to sneak into the playoffs in the NFC. It’s clear the Niners have the firepower to be one of the top teams in the NFL, but it was rare that they performed like it throughout the regular season.
Deebo Samuel has emerged as one of the best offensive weapons in the league and Elijah Mitchell has shown he can be a reliable starter at running back. They may have a quarterback controversy on their hands heading into the postseason with Jimmy Garoppolo returning from a thumb injury and No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance looking more than serviceable in relief.
On the defensive side, they ranked eighth in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ total DVOA on defense and are one of the better units in the NFL with elite pass rushing.
How Packers Reached 2022 NFL Playoffs
- Wild Card Round: Bye
- Regular Season: 13-4
Avery Yang: The Packers entered the playoffs as Super Bowl favorites for good reason. Green Bay boasts two of the best offensive players in the NFL in Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams, both of whom are in their primes and deeply in sync. Though the Packers haven't quite dominated teams this year — the trait you want out of the top Super Bowl contender — when Rodgers is on the field, you'll take your chances.
With the 1-seed in the NFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs locked up, Rodgers looks poised to win back-to-back MVP awards and solidify his spot as a top-five quarterback of all time.
In order to climb higher? Rodgers will need another Super Bowl title, something that's eluded him for more than a decade since his Super Bowl XLV win.
