49ers vs. Panthers Odds
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 40 -110o / -110u | -275 |
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 40 -110o / -110u | +220 |
Matt Rhule’s seat is on fire at this point, but his Panthers won’t be getting much reprieve when facing the San Francisco 49ers this week.
The Panthers are 6.5-point underdogs at home, and hopes are fading for the Baker Mayfield era in Carolina. There could be a chance that this offense is able to turn things around this season, but it will be tough to do so against a strong 49ers defense.
49ers vs. Panthers Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the 49ers and Panthers match up statistically:
49ers vs. Panthers DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 21 | 12 | |
| Pass DVOA | 16 | 19 | |
| Rush DVOA | 24 | 10 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 31 | 1 | |
| Pass DVOA | 31 | 4 | |
| Rush DVOA | 16 | 1 | |
By most metrics you could use from this season, this Panthers offense going against the San Francisco defense is one of the largest mismatches you could have. The 49ers have the best defensive success rate and EPA per play allowed so far this season. On the other hand, Carolina is 31st in offensive success rate and 32nd in EPA per play. This is about one of the largest mismatches you could possibly have on one side of the ball.
in week 5 there is no game where the defense has the bigger advantage than the 49ers defense vs. the panthers offense. baker mayfield might be in for a rough one
full analysis: https://t.co/tyVP8A9dP3pic.twitter.com/tDEjWvlXnd
— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) October 7, 2022
Baker Mayfield has been atrocious in his new home this season. He’s playing at a level that we have never seen before in his career, which is likely more of an indictment on Rhule and his coaching staff than it is on Baker. Among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, Mayfield is ranked 31st in PFF grade. He has also been the worst quarterback in the league this year by EPA per play, success rate, and CPOE, and by a considerable margin.
The 49ers passing defense is second in dropback success rate and third in EPA per play. By using PFF grades, San Francisco has been rated as the top defense in the league so far this season. They have the best coverage grade, 6th best pass rushing grade, sixth-best tackling grade, and third-best run defense grade. DeMeco Ryans has had his guys playing at an elite level all season.
Carolina’s chances in this game all lie with their defense. The Panthers defense has been a pretty respectable unit this year, ranking 10th best in EPA per play. They rank ninth in dropback success rate and 16th in rushing success rate in the league. Carolina is also ranked 16th in defensive grades by PFF, so this defense is a perfectly capable unit that is around league average.
Even after switching from Trey Lance to Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco’s offense has struggled to get going this year. So far they rank 24th in rushing success rate and 25th in passing success rate. They rank 27th in success rate on offense by 20th in EPA per play, showing that they have been reliant on big plays for most of their offensive production this season.
Garoppolo has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league over the last few years in San Francisco, however. Since 2019, Garoppolo has the seventh-highest EPA per play in the league among quarterbacks with 300+ dropbacks. Despite his struggles to begin the year, at some point this 49ers offense will begin to have more success, just as they have the last few seasons with Garoppolo at the helm.
Betting Picks
While I believe that San Francisco’s offensive struggles could come into play here and lead this game to the under, I also think that there is always potential for a blowup game for them against a bad team. In a positive game script where they will more than likely be running the ball a lot, Shanahan’s offense is capable of breaking off some big runs that could run up the score.
Because of the potential for a San Francisco blowout, this pulls me away from taking the under in the game and instead I will be taking the Niners to cover as I don’t see a route to Carolina having even a moderate amount of offensive success. DeMeco Ryans’ defense should be suffocating and could even lead to this being the final game that Matt Rhule coaches in Charlotte.
As of Saturday afternoon, the only book offering 49ers -6 was PointsBet. Everywhere else was -6.5. Follow our live NFL odds page to get the best number before kickoff.
