Those who have followed my picks throughout the season will not be surprised at all by this one.
Ricky Pearsall's underlying numbers indicate there should be more efficiency for him in the 49ers offense. Also, he has been pretty close to breakout plays over the past month. We're back on an over tonight for Pearsall, but it's a specific market.
Ricky Pearsall’s rookie season has been all over the place, and I think we’ve officially hit rock bottom. He has a grand total of one catch for five yards over the last four games. It’s been rough, and yeah, maybe his struggles continue tonight, but this feels like the perfect buy-low spot.
Remember, the 49ers took Pearsall in the first round, and there were mixed opinions on whether he was worth that pick or more of a second-round guy. My comparisons for him were Julian Edelman and Emmanuel Sanders, a super-athletic, polished route-runner who could develop into a solid No. 2 WR. The 49ers already had Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings, so they likely viewed Pearsall as a long-term piece, especially if they didn’t extend Aiyuk.
Entering his rookie season, though, Pearsall missed most of training camp, got shot in the chest in August and didn’t debut until Week 7. Talk about a brutal start to your career.
Then, the second Aiyuk tore his ACL, Pearsall got thrown into a top-three WR role, and he actually looked solid to start, putting up 3/21/0, 4/38/0 and 4/73/1 receiving lines. So, what happened these past four games? Let’s break it down:
- Week 11 vs. SEA: 0/0/0 on two targets. One was a tipped ball, and the other? Brock Purdy forced it into triple coverage, so Pearsall had no chance.
- Week 12 at GB: 0/0/0. Brandon Allen started for an injured Purdy and didn’t even look Pearsall’s way.
- Week 13 at BUF: 0/0/0 on one target. I took the over on his prop here because I thought the snow wouldn’t matter. (Spoiler: it did.) Pearsall slipped on his one chance, and Purdy barely cracked 90 passing yards.
- Week 14 vs. CHI: 1/5/0 on two targets. Pearsall could’ve had a 75-yard TD if he and Purdy were on the same page. Purdy even admitted it was on him, but let’s be real: Pearsall needs more reps to build that connection.
A lot of this comes down to timing. Pearsall missed so much time early on that he’s still playing catch-up, but the opportunity is there. He’s running routes on 70% of dropbacks and getting open, but it’s just not clicking yet.
Pearsall did play a season-low 49% of snaps last week, but that was because the 49ers blew out the Bears and went extremely run-heavy in the fourth quarter. He played about 64% of snap in the first half, which is what I'd expect from him on a week-to-week basis.
Tonight feels like a “get right” spot. The Rams play zone at the fourth-highest rate in the league, which should work in Pearsall’s favor. With CB Cobie Durant out, Los Angeles' secondary is even thinner. Pearsall could find those soft spots in the zone or even get a shot at a deep ball or two.
Here’s a potentially sneaky part of betting on Pearsall: Pearsall has rushing upside. He had a 39-yard run earlier this season so if the Niners want to break him out of this slump, maybe they give him another designed run.
If you can get access to it, I'd recommend his rushing + receiving prop, which adds another path to hitting the over. That one, as of 1 p.m. ET, is at 16.5 and -110 to the over.
If you can only get the receiving line, that’s fine! I’d play that up to 18.5.
Yeah, there’s a chance he keeps this trend of cardio-only games going, but that’s kind of the whole point of buying low. If you wait until he looks good again, you’ve missed the window. Pearsall’s talent is undeniable, and this matchup sets up perfectly for him to finally show it.
