Somebody call the fire department (but don’t actually), because we’re red hot.
I’ve made seven picks in my last four write-ups, and we haven't had a loser in the bunch. Last week, Austin Hooper and Justin Watson provided winners during the day, before Mike Williams hit his over on Sunday night. We closed Week 14 with winners on DeAndre Hopkins and Nelson Agholor on Monday Night Football.
The best part about these picks is they’re just scratching the surface on Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon’s projections on Action Labs. I’m having to do my best to limit myself to just two picks for every primetime game.
To unleash the full potential of our experts’ player-prop projections, I encourage you to try out Action Labs. For another taste, here are two picks for Thursday Night Football, both on 49ers playmakers.
Christian McCaffrey
Over 4.5 Receptions
Both Koerner and Raybon are projecting McCaffrey to go over his reception total. Koerner has him pegged for 4.8 catches, while Raybon’s numbers have him at 5.8. As of 6 p.m. ET on Wednesday, you can get this prop at plus money at DraftKings.
There’s a lot to like about this matchup for McCaffrey in the passing game.
First, the Seahawks rank 31st in the NFL against opposing running backs in the passing game. Only the Raiders are worse. Seattle is giving up 5.5 receptions on 6.4 targets per game this season to opposing running backs.
Enter one of the premier receivers out of the backfield in the NFL.
Taking out his 49ers debut, which saw him play just 29% of snaps against the Chiefs, McCaffrey has gone over this total in three of his six games with the team, and two of the unders saw him haul in four passes. He has rotated going over and under, and he only had two catches last week against the Buccaneers.
McCaffrey tied his 49ers low with just two targets against the Buccaneers (the other instance was his debut). He’s seen at least six targets every other game since being acquired by San Francisco.
Given the Seahawks’ inability to stop running backs from catching passes and the plus number we’re getting on this prop, it’s an easy bet for Thursday Night Football.
Brandon Aiyuk
Under 54.5 Receivng Yards
Without Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk becomes the de facto No. 1 receiver for the 49ers. When Samuel missed Week 8 earlier this season, Aiyuk caught all six of his targets for 81 yards and a touchdown against the Rams.
That doesn’t necessarily mean Aiyuk is a sure thing to hit this over, though. Both experts are projecting an under for Aiyuk, with Raybon at 44.5 receiving yards and Koerner at 46.2.
The Seahawks defense is slightly worse against the pass, although it shouldn’t be considered good. Aiyuk had five catches for 63 yards in these teams’ first matchup, a 20-point 49ers win, back in Week 2.
Aiyuk’s target share may increase this week without Samuel, but he only saw three targets from Brock Purdy against the Buccaneers last week. San Francisco had its way with Tampa Bay on the ground, with 175 rushing yards on 25 combined carries from McCaffrey and Jordan Mason. On a short week with Purdy making just his second start, it would make sense to continue a run-heavy approach.
It’s also worth noting that Purdy is questionable for this game with an oblique/rib injury. If he surprisingly can’t go, it’s Josh Johnson’s turn under center. I’d rather have this under if it comes to that.
Aiyuk has been very consistent this season, going over this total eight times in 13 games. He has had fewer than 40 receiving yards just three times. The data says this is a spot to fade him, though.
Pick: Brandon Aiyuk Under 54.5 Receiving Yards |
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