It is a bad time to be a Vikings fan. Primetime Kirk Cousins faces off against an enraged 49ers team coming off its first loss of the year.
Our script for the Monday Night Football same game parlay is simple, San Francisco gets back on track and plays like it did before the Browns encounter.
The Parlay (+900 at FanDuel):
- First Half Spread – 49ers -3.5 (-110)
- Second Half Spread – 49ers -3.5 (-110)
- Brandon Aiyuk Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-180)
- Jordan Addison Under 4.5 Receptions (-113)
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49ers 1st Half -3.5 & 49ers 2nd Half -3.5
This is a very unusual bet style, but after playing with several combinations this was the only way to get the odds I like on a bet I believe in.
There is no doubt the 49ers have been excellent all year, except for the game against Cleveland. Even then, it took injuries to three of their All-Pro-caliber offensive players to finally put them behind by a field goal.
In the other five games, San Francisco is 4-1 against the first half spread and 5-0 against the second half spread. Not only do the 49ers beat their opponents into submission, they never take their foot off the gas.
When Justin Jefferson is healthy, the Vikings are always a threat to score and cause problems when playing from behind. Without Jefferson, they looked lost even against the Bears. Chicago is bottom eight in yards and points allowed. The Vikings gained a mere 220 yards of offense against them.
Minnesota's offense has limited threats on the outside and already struggled to run the ball with lightboxes. It’s hard to see primetime Kirk leading them out of that.
Turning to the 49ers offense, is there any team better suited to replace injured running backs? Yes, Christian McCaffery takes the Kyle Shanahan offense from great to unstoppable. However, we have seen undrafted free agents thrive in his scheme time and time again. Whoever is running, Elijah Mitchell or Jordan Mason will have success.
At the end of the day, an amped 49ers squad against a Vikings team led by primetime Kirk seems like an obvious choice.
Brandon Aiyuk Over 59.5 Receiving Yards
With two of their playmakers out, there will be plenty of opportunity for San Fran’s best receiving threat to take over. Aiyuk is PFF’s second-graded receiver with an absurd 92.2 receiving grade. The only problem from a statistical standpoint has been that the 49ers haven't really needed him to step up yet.
With a depleted array of weapons, that will not be the case on Monday.
While Aiyuk is loved by PFF, a couple of guys who do not receive the same level of praise will line up against him at corner. The Vikings' starting outside corners are ranked 42nd and 91st, the only parts of Minnesota’s coverage unit to struggle.
Shanahan will have creative ways of making sure Aiyuk can get one-on-one matchups and fully take advantage of the Vikings' weak point.
Jordan Addison Under 4.5 Receptions
It wouldn’t be fair for me to say the Vikings will have trouble and then leave them off the parlay card.
Addison was thrust into the No. 1 role last week and showed he needed more time to develop. He had three catches on five targets for 28 yards. Addison’s main value has come as a deep threat to complement Justin Jefferson. The rookie leads the Vikings in average depth of target and has produced a respectable 8.1 yards per target.
Against San Francisco's league-best pass rush, those deep routes will not have time to develop. This means he will have to make work on short and intermediate routes, and his smaller frame makes contested catches difficult. If the Vikings are down and throwing, I expect those targets to go to T.J. Hockenson.
Addison may grow into an excellent 1B to Jefferson’s 1A and be able to serve as an adequate replacement sometime down the road. For now, however, he still needs plenty of development, and facing a top defense will only make things harder.
49ers vs. Vikings Same Game Parlay (+900)
- First Half Spread – 49ers -3.5 (-110)
- Second Half Spread – 49ers -3.5 (-110)
- Brandon Aiyuk Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-180)
- Jordan Addison Under 4.5 Receptions (-113)
