The five most valuable props for Sunday afternoon's divisional round matchup between the Bengals and Bills target Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, according to Action Network's predictive analytics.
The algorithms are providing a lot of love to props involving Tee Higgins, James Cook and Gabe Davis, too.
But the picks on Allen and Burrow aren't necessarily bullish about their prospects this week — at least relative to the market.
Our algorithms laboriously factor in matchups, weather, scheme and other mechanisms to best deduce which props across the marketplace provide positive expected value.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Bengals vs. Bills
- Tee Higgins Under 66.5 Receiving Yards -114 (FanDuel)
- Gabe Davis Under 56.5 Receiving Yards -114 (FanDuel)
- Josh Allen Under 35.5 Pass Attempts +108 (FanDuel)
- Joe Burrow Under 38.5 Pass Attempts -125 (FanDuel)
- James Cook Over 9.5 Rush Attempts -108 (FanDuel)
*Odds and data are as of Saturday afternoon. These are the market's most valuable prices, according to our predictive models.
The most valuable prop for the night is on Higgins to receive for 66 yards or fewer. Our proprietary algorithms expect the Bengals' WR2 to put up just 53 yards on average, giving this prop pick a roughly 14% betting edge.
Effectively, you'll be receiving a 14% discount from the fair value price.
Another way to think about it: You're accumulating 14% in expected value by making that pick. Over the long run, if you exclusively bet on things that provide positive expected value, you're all but assured to make a profit. In the short term, of course, variance is a constraint.
Pick: Tee Higgins Under 66.5 Receiving Yards |
The opposite side's WR2 is also expected to go under on his total. Davis' receiving yard prop is the second-most valuable prop of the day.
While he may be "Big Game Gabe" to some, our algorithms project just 46 yards from him on Sunday, compared to a 56.5 evaluation. That gives this prop roughly a 12% betting edge.
The models are bearish on Allen and Burrow — but only on their pass attempt props. Each is expected to go about two passes under their totals, good for a 4% edge.
And Cook is expected to take much of the mantle away from fellow running back Devin Singletary, which was the case last week against the Dolphins.
The rookie out-carried Singletary, 12-10. It's why both of our premier NFL handicappers — Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon — think Singletary is going to go under his rushing yard total of 45.5 this week.
That prop isn't on this list because sharps like them have driven that line down to a now unpalatable 39.5- or 40.5-yard total.
Cook is expected to rush about 10 times on a 9.5 total. With a vig of -108, that gives this line a roughly 2% edge.
