The five most valuable props for Saturday night's divisional round matchup between the Giants and Eagles target Jalen Hurts and Daniel Jones, according to the Action Network's predictive analytics.
There are two other receiving yard unders in the top five.
And the picks on Jones and Hurts aren't necessarily bullish about his prospects this week, either — at least relative to the market.
Our algorithms laboriously factor in matchups, weather, scheme and other mechanisms to best deduce which props across the marketplace provide positive expected value.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Giants vs. Eagles
- Jalen Hurts under 51.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel)
- Dallas Goedert under 51.5 receiving yards -114 (FanDuel)
- Richie James under 45.5 receiving yards -115 (DraftKings)
- Jalen Hurts under 21.5 completions -114 (FanDuel)
- Daniel Jones under 44.5 rushing yards +100 (DraftKings)
*Odds and data are as of Friday afternoon. These are the market's most valuable prices, according to our predictive models.
The most valuable prop for the weekend is on Hurts to rush for far under than his total of 51.5 yards.
Our algorithms project the quarterback — still nursing a shoulder injury — to put up just 41 yards through the ground, on average.
That gives this prop roughly 17% in betting edge.
Effectively, you'll be receiving a 17% discount from the fair value price.
Another way to think about it: You're accumulating 17% in expected value by making that pick. Over the long run, if you exclusively bet on things that provide positive expected value, you're all but assured to make a profit. In the short term, of course, variance is a constraint.
Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert's passing yards under is the second-most valuable prop for this Saturday night tilt. He's expected to corral just 38 yards on a 51.5 total — good for a solid 16% betting edge.
Hurts has another valuable under in completions, where he's projected to put up about 18 on a 21.5 total. This prop has a roughly 8% betting edge.
Jones comes into the picture with another pick that's not bullish on his prospects on Saturday. This one is on his rushing yards under, with a projection of 41 yards on a total of 44.5 with plus-money vig. This prop has a 4% betting edge.
And WR1 isn't expected to perform above market value on Saturday, either. While the market is expecting Richie James Jr. to put up 45.5 receiving yards, our models have him at 35 yards. That's a roughly 10% betting edge.
