The five most valuable props for Saturday night's Wild Card Round game between the Los Angeles Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars target Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence, according to the Action Network's predictive analytics.
The metrics are incredibly bullish on the two star quarterbacks.
But there's another player on the most popular list — and he's probably flying under your radar.
Our algorithms laboriously factor in matchups, weather, scheme and other mechanisms to best deduce which props across the marketplace provide positive expected value.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Chargers vs. Jaguars
- Justin Herbert over 37.5 pass attempts -114 (FanDuel)
- Justin Herbert over 25.5 completions -130 (DraftKings)
- JaMycal Hasty over 10.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel)
- Trevor Lawrence over 34.5 pass attempts -114 (FanDuel)
- JaMycal Hasty over 8.5 receiving yards +105 (DraftKings)
*Odds and data are as of Friday afternoon. These are the market's most valuable prices, according to our predictive models.
Three of the five most valuable props for this Wild Card matchup between the Chargers and Jaguars involve Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence.
For Herbert, our predictive models are bullish on the amount of times he will drop back to pass — and how many completions he'll net in the process.
Herbert is projected to throw roughly 42.5 times, relative to a market price of o37.5 (-114). That's a roughly 20% betting edge.
Effectively, you're getting a 20% discount on the true price of that prop bet, according to our algorithms.
Another way to think about it: you're accumulating 20% in expected value by making that pick. Over the long run, if you exclusively bet on things that provide positive expected value, you're guaranteed to make a profit. In the short term, of course, variance is a constraint.
In a correlated pick, Herbert is expected to complete 28.3 passes against a market consensus of 25.5 at a price of -130. That pick provides about a 12% edge.
As for Lawrence, our models are also bullish on how many times he'll pass. He's expected to throw about 37 times against a 34.5 attempt market projection. That over is worth about an 11% edge.
Meanwhile, the models are bullish on the Jags' No. 2 running back, JaMycal Hasty. His over on receiving yards and rushing yards have a roughly 9% and 12% edge, respectively.
He's expected to put up about 12 receiving yards and 18 rushing yards in the Jaguars' first playoff game since the Blake Bortles era.
