The five most valuable props for Sunday afternoon's Dolphins vs. Bills target Josh Allen, Skylar Thompson, Devin Singletary and Jeff Wilson Jr., according to the Action Network's predictive analytics.
The algorithms think Thompson is currently underrated by the market. That same market isn't particularly bullish about Allen's current value, though.
That fades the public's sentiment that Allen's due for a monster game against a mid Miami defense and with the vast majority of the possession time.
Our algorithms laboriously factor in matchups, weather, scheme and other mechanisms to best deduce which props across the marketplace provide positive expected value.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Dolphins vs. Bills
- Skylar Thompson over 176.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel)
- Josh Allen under 9.5 rushing attempts -130 (PointsBet)
- Josh Allen under 34.5 pass attempts -114 (FanDuel)
- Josh Allen under 49.5 rush yards -105 (DraftKings)
- Jeff Wilson Jr. over 57.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel)
*Odds and data are as of Saturday afternoon, according to our models. These are the market's most valuable prices.
Our models are pretty bearish on how many times Allen is going to tuck it and run on Sunday — and how many times he's going to drop back to pass — relative to the market.
The algorithms have Allen to throw for 32.5 times compared to the 34.5 market price. That's a roughly 11% betting edge.
Effectively, you're receiving an 11% discount on that particular prop.
Allen's projection for rush attempts is 7.5 on a 9.5 market price. That's good for about an 8% edge. In a corresponding market, we're expecting Allen to put up closer to 45 rushing yards on a 49.5 total. That's partly under the assumption that the dual-threat QB won't risk his body as much in a game in which his team is a 13.5-point favorite.
Meanwhile, the algos are bullish on how many yards Thompson will cobble together, expecting closer to 196.5 yards, especially during garbage time. That's on a total of 176.5 yards.
That's our most valuable prop at a 15% edge.
And Wilson Jr. is slated to suit up with the Dolphins struggling with health at the running back position. His total of 57.5 should be closer to 62, according to our models.
