The most valuable props for Sunday night's Ravens vs. Bengals game target Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins and J.K. Dobbins — but the most valuable prop might be flying under your radar.
Bengals wide receiver Trenton Irwin is the best bet for Sunday night — and it's not bullish on how he'll do.
Our algorithms laboriously factor in matchups, weather, scheme and other mechanisms to best deduce which props across the marketplace provide positive expected value.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Ravens vs. Bengals
- Trenton Irwin under 7.5 receiving yards -108 (FanDuel)
- Joe Burrow over 24.5 completions -105 (DraftKings)
- Joe Burrow over 10.5 rushing yards -105 (BetMGM)
- Tee Higgins under 4.5 receptions +105 (DraftKings)
- JK Dobbins over 61.5 rushing yards -110 (DraftKings)
*Odds and data are as of Saturday afternoon, according to our models.
Irwin's under on receiving yards effectively means you're betting on the oft-used wide out to receive zero or one catch on Sunday.
And yet, the bet yields an incredibly solid 13% betting edge.
Effectively, you're getting a 13% discount on the true price of that prop bet.
In other words, you're receiving 13% in expected value simply by inputting that wager. Over the long run, if you exclusively bet on lines — at the same unit sizing — that provide positive EV, you're all but guaranteed to make a profit. In the short term, variance is a constraint.
Apart from Irwin, the algorithms are also bearish on Higgins. Higgins projected to catch just around four balls on Sunday. At plus-money vig for that number, you're receiving about a 4% edge.
Burrow's overs have slightly higher edges. Burrow is expected to dole out 26.4 completions on a 24.5 evaluation. With a -105 vig, that's a 9% betting edge.
Burrow is also expected to rush for about 13 yards on Sunday relative to a total of 10.5 across the market.
Dobbins' over on rushing yards rounds out Sunday night's most valuable props. The Ravens starting running back is expected to rush for 65 yards on a 61 yard total.
