The five most valuable props for Sunday afternoon's Giants vs. Vikings target how the Giants offense is going to perform — namely, Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley.
But the most valuable prop overall goes to Irv Smith Jr., whose receiving yards under is Action Network's favorite play for this contest.
Our top experts, Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon, have targeted this line as this 4:30 p.m. kickoff's main prop play.
Our algorithms laboriously factor in matchups, weather, scheme and other mechanisms to best deduce which props across the marketplace provide positive expected value.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Giants vs. Vikings
- Irv Smith Jr. Under 15.5 Receiving Yards, -125 (DraftKings)
- Saquon Barkley Over 17.5 Rush Attempts, -120 (DraftKings)
- Daniel Jones Under 39.5 Rushing Yards, +105 (DraftKings)
- Daniel Jones Under 6.5 Rush Attempts, +115 (DraftKings)
- Daniel Jones Under 32.5 Pass Attempts, -105 (DraftKings)
*Odds and data are as of Saturday afternoon, according to our models. These are the market's most valuable prices.
Sunday's most valuable prop bet has deteriorated in value since open, so it's imperative you get it to as close to under 15.5 receiving yards at -125 as possible.
This prop opened at 16.5 (-110) before our two experts put out picks on Friday, illuminating the value at hand.
Read Koerner's rationale here.
The edge on this prop is roughly 22% still. Effectively, you're getting a 22% discount on the true price of that prop bet, according to our algorithms.
In other words, you're receiving 22% in expected value simply by inputting that wager. Over the long run, if you exclusively bet on lines — at the same unit sizing — that provide positive EV, you're all but guaranteed to make a profit. In the short term, variance is a constraint.
The other most valuable lines can be deduced into one thesis: Our algorithms expect the Giants to depend heavily on Barkley at the detriment of Jones' overall numbers.
Jones is expected to put up just 32 rushing yards on six attempts on Sunday, relative to market projections of about 40 rushing yards on seven attempts.
Barkley, meanwhile, is projected to rush the ball about 20 times. The best total on the market with DraftKings has his total at 17.5 (-120).
In a corresponding market, Jones' total on pass attempts at 32.5 is expected to go under, according to our projections.
