The five most valuable props for the NFC Championship Game: 49ers vs. Eagles target Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown and Kyle Juszczyk, according to our director of analytics Sean Koerner's projections.
Our algorithms laboriously factor in matchups, weather, scheme and other mechanisms to best deduce which props across the marketplace provide positive expected value.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
4 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for 49ers vs. Eagles for NFC Championship Game
- Kyle Juszczyk under 10.5 receiving yards -160 (PointsBet)
- A.J. Brown under 70.5 receiving yards -110 (PointsBet)
- Miles Sanders under 1.5 receptions -195 (DraftKings)
- A.J. Brown under 4.5 receptions +145 (DraftKings)
*Odds and data are as of Sunday afternoon, according to the Action Network models. These are the market's most valuable prices.
The most valuable prop bet is on Kyle Juszczyk to record fewer than 10.5 yards receiving.
Our algorithms project the fullback to put up just about three yards on average. Essentially, you're banking on Juszczyk to corral 0 or 1 receptions.
That gives this prop roughly 17% in betting edge.
Effectively, you'll be receiving a 17% discount from the fair value price.
Another way to think about it: You're accumulating 17% in expected value by making that pick. Over the long run, if you exclusively bet on things that provide positive expected value, you're all but assured to make a profit. In the short term, of course, variance is a constraint.
A.J. Brown commands two of the remaining valuable props. His under on catches and yards have utility, according to our models.
Brown is projected to have just 58.4 yards receiving and four catches on the night.
Meanwhile, Miles Sanders' under is also valuable. He's projected to have 0.9 catches on average on Sunday compared to a 1.5 reception total.
