The five most valuable props for the AFC Championship Game: Bengals vs. Chiefs target Kadarius Toney, Trent Irwin and Jerick McKinnon, according to the Action Network's proprietary models.
Our algorithms laboriously factor in matchups, weather, scheme and other mechanisms to best deduce which props across the marketplace provide positive expected value.
These are relatively random picks — but that's good news for you, the reader. These markets are far more inefficient than the standard spreads, totals and moneylines out there. So, you'll be able to glean more value from them.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Bengals vs. Chiefs for AFC Championship Game
- Jerick McKinnon under 4.5 receptions -160 (ResortsWorld)
- Kadarius Toney under 32.5 receiving yards -115 (BetMGM)
- Kadarius Toney under 3.5 receptions -125 (ResortsWorld)
- Trent Irwin under 10.5 receiving yards -130 (PointsBet)
- Joe Mixon under 3.5 receptions -145 (BallyBet)
*Odds and data are as of Sunday afternoon, according to the Action Network models. These are the market's most valuable prices.
The most valuable prop bet is on Jerick McKinnon to corral four or fewer passes on Sunday night.
Our algorithms project the running back to put up just about three receptions on average.
That gives this prop roughly 14% in betting edge at a vig of -160.
Effectively, you'll be receiving a 14% discount from the fair value price.
Another way to think about it: You're accumulating 14% in expected value by making that pick. Over the long run, if you exclusively bet on things that provide positive expected value, you're all but assured to make a profit. In the short term, of course, variance is a constraint.
Chiefs wideout Kadarius Toney takes the mantle for the two next-most valuable props. And our models aren't bullish about how he's going to perform tonight.
His under on catches and yards have utility, according to our models.
Toney is projected to have just 24 yards receiving and 2.8 catches on the night.
Bengals wide receiver Trent Irwin's under may be worthwhile, too. He's projected to put up just 4.6 receiving yards on a 10.5 yard total. Basically, you're banking on the seldom used wideout to catch 0 or 1 catches on Sunday night.
Joe Mixon's under on receptions rounds out the AFC Championship Game's most valuable props. He's projected to have 2.9 catches on average on Sunday compared to a 3.5 reception total.
