The five most valuable props for Sunday Night Football's Chiefs vs. Chargers involve two Chiefs players that are likely not on your radar.
But players like Justin Herbert and Kadarius Toney likely are. Toney has the most valuable NFL player prop bet for Sunday Night Football, according to our predictive analytics team. But it's not bullish on how he'll perform tonight.
Neither is the line on Herbert, though that's less damning about his overall projections.
Our algorithms laboriously factor in matchups, weather, scheme and other mechanisms to best deduce which props across the marketplace provide positive expected value.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Chiefs vs. Chargers
- Kadarius Toney under 53.5 receiving yards -110 (FanDuel)
- Mike Williams under 60.5 receiving yards -110 (FanDuel)
- Noah Gray under 13.5 receiving yards -110 (FanDuel)
- Justin Herbert under 10.5 rushing yards -110 (PointsBet)
- Justin Watson over 22.5 receiving yards -110 (FanDuel)
*Odds and data are as of Sunday afternoon. These are the market's most valuable prices.
The most valuable prop for Sunday Night Football's Chiefs vs. Chargers is on Kadarius Toney to catch for 53 yards or fewer. Our predictive analytics team thinks this line should be closer to 44.2.
That gives the bet a roughly 10% betting edge. Essentially, you can expect to make $10 for every $100 wagered in the long run on these types of wagers.
Another way to think about it: You're getting a 10% discount on the true price of that prop bet.
Mike Williams is also expected to go under, too, with that line providing a roughly 8% discount. That's on a projection of him catching for about 51.9 yards.
On yet another under, Noah Gray is expected to record just 11 receiving yards on Sunday night. But his best value on the market expects him at 13.5, which gives this line a roughly 6% betting edge.
Justin Herbert's under on rushing yards is the game's fourth-most valuable prop. He's expected to nab just eight yards on the ground. Meanwhile, the best price on the market is with FanDuel at u10.5.
And Justin Watson's over on receiving yards has a betting edge of roughly 5%. He's projected to record closer to 27 yards, according to our models.
