The five most valuable props for Thanksgiving's Patriots vs. Vikings game involve each team's quarterbacks.
Beyond that, three skill position players, who are likely not on your radar, are among the most valuable NFL player props tonight.
For Kirk Cousins and Mac Jones, their prop bets aren't on traditional lines that the public might be inclined to wager on.
That means there's value for you. Betting edges on lines that aren't incredibly popular with the public means there are market inefficiencies that have yet to be actualized.
Our algorithms laboriously factor in matchups, weather, scheme and other mechanisms to best deduce which props across the marketplace provide positive expected value.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Patriots vs. Vikings
- Damien Harris over 33.5 rushing yards -110 (DraftKings)
- Mac Jones over 7.5 rushing yards -105 (DraftKings)
- K.J. Osborn over 2.5 receptions +130 (BetRivers)
- Jakobi Meyers under 55.5 receiving yards -115 (FanDuel)
- Kirk Cousins over 3.5 rushing yards -110 (BetParx)
*Odds and data are as of Thursday afternoon. These are the market's most valuable prices.
The most valuable prop for Thanksgiving Day's Patriots vs. Vikings game is on Damien Harris to rush for 34 yards or more. Our predictive analytics team thinks this line should be closer to 41.
That gives the bet a roughly 13% betting edge. Essentially, you can expect to make $13 for every $100 wagered in the long run on these types of wagers.
Another way to think about it: You're getting a 13% discount on the true price of that prop bet.
Mac Jones' rushing yards prop has the second-most value on the prop bet market, according to our models.
Jones is expected to run for about 11 yards, our projections say. Meanwhile, the best price on the market is for the Patriots quarterback to rush for over 7.5 yards at DraftKings.
Cousins' over on rushing yards also provides a betting edge. He's expected to rush for about five yards tonight — the best price on the market gives him 3.5.
Vikings wide receiver K.J. Osborn has the third-most valuable player prop for the night cap. He's expected to catch the ball closer to three times, compared to his plus-money line at o2.5.
Meanwhile, our models are far less bullish about Patriots wide receiver Jakobi Meyers' prospects tonight. He's expected to receive for just 46.9 yards, but the best market price has his total at 55.5. This pick provides about 9% in betting value.
