What's primetime football without a little same-game parlay sweat?
Action Network NFL experts Sean Koerner, Nick Giffen, and Gilles Gallant cooked up a juicy NFL parlay for tonight's Thursday Night Football game between the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles.
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Commanders vs. Eagles Parlay Tonight
- Eagles First Half Team Total Under 13.5 (-116)
- AJ Brown Anytime Touchdown (+125)
- Terry McLaurin Under 4.5 Receptions (+100)
Parlay Odds: +1000 (bet365)
Eagles First Half Team Total Under 13.5 (-116)
Nick Giffen: My full-game projection for the Eagles tonight is a shade under 26 points on average.
In terms of the first half, both sides of this pick have trended toward this hitting. The Eagles have averaged 10.6 points per first half this season compared to 15.3 points per second half. Similarly, the Commanders' defense has allowed just 8.9 points per first half compared to 12.8 points per second half.
The coin toss data suggests the Eagles are more likely to start the game with the ball, which would generally be bad, but the Eagles have zero first drive touchdowns this season and the Commanders have not allowed a first drive touchdown since Week 4. So even if the Eagles start with the ball, it's entirely possible we get to the second quarter before they are able to get in the end zone.
AJ Brown Anytime Touchdown (+125)
Gilles Gallant: The analysis here is pretty simple. AJ Brown is back healthy and off of the injury report and he has a great matchup tonight.
Brown crushes man defenses, and that's mostly what he's going to see against the Commanders tonight.
He also has a solid history against this team. In two games last year, he accounted for four receiving touchdowns.
Terry McLaurin Under 4.5 Receptions (+100)
Sean Koerner: Terry McLaurin has a 71% catch rate on the season, but he has an expected catch rate of 57%, according to NextGen Stats. That suggests he's due for some catch regression.
McLaurin will be matched up for most of tonight's game against rookie cornerback Quinyon Mitchell, who has been very good this year, allowing just a 52% completion rate.
McLaurin may haul in a deep shot or two, so his yardage market isn't one I'm interested in fading. But I'm projecting him closer to four receptions tonight, so I think we're getting some solid value on the under here.
