The 2022 Super Bowl is here, and I'd be remiss not to mention that my friend Connor has been on the Bengals all postseason. His mantra was taken from the movie "The Dark Knight" as he endorses the Bengals quarterback saying “I believe in Joe Burrow.” Taking his advice and backing Cincinnati in the AFC Championship Game paid off for me. Now, I will once again be busting out the button he sent me and proclaiming “I believe in Joe Burrow.”
While Burrow has been excellent, he has not done this all alone. On the outside, Burrow is throwing to the best young duo of receivers in the NFL in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. They are both graded as top-10 receivers, per PFF, and should be major matchup problems for the Rams. Los Angeles will have Jalen Ramsey erasing one option, but nothing to stop the other.
The only fear for this Bengals team is how it will handle the Rams pass rush. However, Cincinnati pulled out a victory three weeks ago while allowing nine sacks and did enough to keep the Chiefs' strong pass rush away. Pressure is not new to Burrow, so he should be able to manage it.
Defensively, the Bengals have been able to make the right play at the right time all postseason. In each playoff game, Cincinnati’s opponent has had the ball to either win or force OT. In each game, the defense made the stop it needed. The Bengals have forced at least two turnovers in every playoff game and Matthew Stafford will give them more chances. They may not be the best defense, but they make plays when they have to. I expect that to be the case once again.
The Rams have yet to face a high-powered offense this postseason and Cincinnati has as much upside as anyone. Built on our faith in Joe Cool, let’s put together a parlay, because watching a Super Bowl without prop bets isn’t really watching a Super Bowl.
Should you bet same-game parlays? We outline all the factors you should consider when betting same-game parlays here.
Super Bowl Same-Game Parlay
Prop 1: Bengals +4.5 Alt Spread (-125)
It's always helpful to have some cushion with parlays. Given the power of the Cincinnati offense and the Rams' tendency to play conservatively, that 4.5 seems like more than enough.
In each of its past two playoff games, L.A. looked to be the much better team. The Rams moved the ball up and down the field and played excellent defense. However, both those games still ended within three points because of high-leverage plays. The blend of turnovers and chunk plays allowed kept their opponents closer than they should have been.
The Bengals have the explosive playability to make the Rams pay. They also have been excellent at forcing turnovers in this playoff run. Even if Cincinnati falls behind early, it will be able to fight back and keep it with the 4.5 spread.
Prop 2 & 3: Tee Higgins Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-115) & Tyler Boyd Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (+100)
If Burrow plays as expected, it will leave plenty to go around for the receivers. The presence of Ramsey has us fading Chase, who is an excellent young receiver but will likely spend most of his time against the NFL’s best corner.
With Chase limited, the next two receiving options are still good ones. Higgins has averaged 99.5 yards per game in the past two playoff games. He was the only player Burrow targeted in overtime and he caught both targets. The coverage unit outside Ramsey for L.A. is downright bad and Higgins is PFF’s ninth-graded receiver. He should torch whoever matches up across from him.
While Higgins feasts on the outside, Boyd will be the go-to guy in the middle of the field. Mina Kimes broke down the Rams' struggles covering between the numbersand this is where Boyd operates. Boyd has been quiet most of the year but has flashed the potential he showed in his 1,000-yard seasons. Against L.A.’s pass rush featuring Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Leonard Floyd, getting the ball out fast will be key. This all aligns for a big Super Bowl for the Bengals' slot receiver.
Prop 4: Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Passing Touchdown (-160)
It would be wrong to talk up Burrow and take none of his overs. The Rams have completely smothered rushing games in the playoffs. They have allowed just 54 yards per game on the ground. The key has been the play of their defensive front as it has completely bullied offensive lines. Unfortunately, the Bengals offensive line will do little to counter that as that is their worst graded unit. If Cincinnati is scoring, it is not because it won in the trenches and pounded the ball.
Cincinnati will have options to throw to thanks to its depth at receiver. Higgins, Boyd and Chase have all made big-splash touchdown plays when neglected throughout the year so the broken touchdowns have a chance. Only one time in his past five games has Burrow thrown for fewer than two touchdowns. With the mismatches outside, I doubt this is the second time that happens.
Prop 5: Cooper Kupp Longest Reception Over 28.5 (-135)
With Burrow and the Bengals clicking, the Rams will need to keep up. Their offense will need their star receiver. Just on third down against San Fran, Kupp recorded 108 yards and two touchdowns, per Sam Monson. His ability to create space, run after the catch and his sheer volume of targets make busting one play likely.
Elite receivers have been trouble for the Bengals throughout the playoffs. A.J. Brown posted 142 yards with 41-yard long in the Divisional Round. Tyreek Hill had 78 yards and a 33-yard long in the AFC Championship Game. Cincinnati has shown it can make adjustments at the half, but by that time Kupp may already have his big play.
