We were a Davante Adams touchdown away from cashing our NFC same-game parlay in the Divisional Round at +414 odds. In the AFC, we also missed out on cashing a +2058 ticket after hitting on five of seven legs.
Unfortunately, that's how it sometimes goes in this racket. However, we are still riding high from our +3500 cash in the Wild Card Round.
Let's see if we can run it back one more time on Sunday when the Rams host the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.
As always, my same-game parlay will primarily be centered on the principles I laid out in my preview, which you can find here. This time around, I'll be risking a half-unit of my bankroll on Sunday's ticket, which consists of eight legs valued at +2800.
All odds provided are courtesy of PointsBet.
Should you bet same-game parlays? We outline all the factors you should consider when betting same-game parlays here.
49ers-Rams Same-Game Parlay
Elijah Mitchell Over 50 Rush Yards (-250)
The San Francisco 49ers rank third with a run play rate of 48.75%. They're eighth with 128.5 rushing yards per game, and that total has increased over their last three games up to 136.7.
Even if the 49ers fall behind, they're unlikely to abandon their rushing attack, as they rank in the league's top half in explosive run plays.
Elijah Mitchell has logged at least 17 carries in each of his past seven games, and he finished with more than 50 rushing yards in each of those outings. I like that trend to continue on Sunday night.
Elijah Mitchell Over 17.5 Rush Attempts (-115)
The conditions in Green Bay last week made it difficult for both teams to run the ball. Things should be much different inside SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.
Prior to the Divisional Round, Mitchell logged at least 21 rushing attempts in six straight games. Since I'm bullish on the 49ers' ability to run the ball, I like the correlation of this play with the one above.
Cam Akers Under 60.5 Rush Yards (-115)
I saw this prop as high as 63.5, but I still like it at 60.5 or better.
Akers is coming off a Divisional Round game against the Buccaneers that saw him fumble twice. While Rams head coach Sean McVay may be saying all the right things to the media to support his running back, it wouldn't surprise me if Akers gets fewer touches in this game.
Also, if we put aside the fumbles, the Florida State product hasn't shown the same burst of speed in his return from a torn Achilles, which happened this past July. Though it's still a limited sample size, Akers has carried the ball 46 times for just 106 yards. That translates to just 2.3 yards per carry.
Van Jefferson Over 25 Receiving Yards (-171)
There's always value to be had in the receiving props by targeting a team's secondary options. In 14 of his 19 games this season, Van Jefferson has had at least 25 receiving yards.
While I'd admit that I am a bit concerned that he hasn't gotten more than three targets in his past three games, we're not asking for too much in terms of yardage with this prop.
Cooper Kupp Anytime Touchdown (-136)
I prefer to back Cooper Kupp for an anytime TD instead of his yardage prop because I feel it'll be more difficult for the 49ers to double him inside the red zone. The Rams can certainly use a rub route to get him the ball on plays inside the 10-yard line.
Kupp led the NFL with 16 regular-season touchdowns, and he's scored a TD in seven of his last eight games. Moreover, he's the league's most-targeted player (36) inside the red zone, so I feel he's well worth a look despite the juice on his odds at -136.
Deebo Samuel Over 50 Receiving Yards (-136)
The 49ers will likely need a big day from Deebo Samuel if they plan on advancing to the Super Bowl. Samuel had 44 receiving yards in Green Bay despite the conditions that made it difficult to catch the football.
Between the frigid weather and Niners quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo nursing an ailing shoulder, I expect that we'll see a bit more of a dynamic passing game on Sunday. Garoppolo was a full participant this week and his shoulder issue is no longer listed on the injury report.
In both of San Francisco's games against the Rams this season, Samuel has logged at least 95 receiving yards. I feel the 49ers offense is a bit undervalued coming off last week's performance, and they could surprise some people in their passing attack.
Tyler Higbee Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
Since Week 13, we've seen Tyler Higbee really emerge as a key component of the Rams offense. While some might focus solely on his production, the reality is Higbee is being targeted more consistently than ever before. The tight end has received an average of 6.7 targets over his past nine games compared to his season average of 5.6 targets per game. He's also logged at least 41 receiving yards in six straight games heading into Sunday.
49ers Alt Spread +4.5 (-140)
With seven legs already on my card, I'm going to buy the Niners up to 4.5 at -140 for a bit more insurance. There's no need to get greedy here as I'm entirely content with my ticket as is at 28-to-1 odds.
San Francisco is an uncomfortable team to play against, and with Los Angeles committing four turnovers in the two previous meetings, there's always the chance of the backdoor being left open for the 49ers.
Feel free to check out my game preview for a complete breakdown of this matchup.
