The Titans take on the Bengals in the Divisional Round on Saturday afternoon. Tennessee is expected to have the offensive trio of Derrick Henry, Julio Jones and A.J. Brown on the field together for the first time since Oct. 24, though Henry is listed as questionable and prop lines aren't available for him as of Thursday night.
The revitalized Titans offense should have the firepower to control this game, which is the expectation we're building this parlay around. All of the bets below are based on that game script — the Titans building a lead and controlling the clock.
Let's figure out the best same-game parlay we can build at Caesars Sportsbook accounting for this outcome.
A full breakdown of this game can be found here.
Should you bet same-game parlays? We outline all the factors you should consider when betting same-game parlays here.
Bengals-Titans Same-Game Parlay
Titans (-2.5)
The main spread for this game is 3.5, but I'm more comfortable paying up to get the extra point here. With three being a key number, we don't want this parlay to bust based on the Bengals pulling within a field goal down the stretch. Taking the Titans -3.5 for the better price is certainly a fine strategy here, as well, though.
Ryan Tannehill Over 238.5 Passing Yards
With Jones, Brown and Henry all in the lineup, Ryan Tannehill averages 9.4 yards per passing attempt on the season. Joe Burrow leads the league at 8.9 for the entire season. At that rate, Tannehill needs only about 25 pass attempts to get there.
My expectation is we don't see a massive 30-carry showing from Henry in his first game back, meaning Tannehill's volume should be solid. The Bengals' explosive offense helps in that regard too. Tennessee will need to be aggressive to keep pace with Cincinnati.
The Bengals also rank 24th in Football Outsiders' DVOA against the pass (and 13th against the run). That's another good sign for the Titans' passing attack. This prop line has slid up from 233.5 earlier in the week, which is a good sign smart money is coming in on the over.
A.J. Brown Over 72.5 Receiving Yards
This one follows logically from our Tannehill prop. Brown is responsible for 28.9% of the Titans' receiving yards over the past calendar year, courtesy of our FantasyLabs Player Models. That puts us at roughly 70 yards if Tannehill got to exactly the 239 needed to hit the over on his side.
That leaves us a lot of wiggle room for this one to hit. Remember, we're assuming Tannehill goes over as well, if he doesn't this leg doesn't matter. Brown could certainly see a higher percentage of the team's receiving yards, or Tannehill could go well past his prop.
This is naturally priced into the parlay odds — Caesars understands these events are correlated. We could also add in Julio Jones' yards over at 45.5 if we wanted a better payout, but let's leave it here for now.
Joe Mixon Under 16.5 Rushing Attempts
If the Titans are able to get out to a considerable lead, that will force the Bengals to a pass-heavy attack. When you couple that with the clock-controlling abilities of Derrick Henry, it's hard to see a high-volume Mixon game.
Teams have thrown the ball against the Titans at the second-highest rate in the league this year, as well. This one correlates nicely with the others, and it also makes sense in a vacuum.
This brings the parlay to total odds of +580.
