Last weekend, we cashed a massive seven-leg ticket (+3500) with our same-game parlay (SGP) in the Steelers-Chiefs game. I've enjoyed the process because the principles are essentially based on the game script, which I outline in my previews. You can find my full betting preview for Bills vs. Chiefs here.
Unless otherwise noted, I'm risking a standard unit when playing these SGPs. For Sunday night, I've identified eight plays that, when combined, have a value of +2059 odds. All odds provided will be courtesy of FanDuel.
Should you bet same-game parlays? We outline all the factors you should consider when betting on same-game parlays here.
Bills-Chiefs Same-Game Parlay
Travis Kelce 50+ Alt Receiving Yards (-270)
With a total as high as 54.5 on the board, we have a narrative that could produce plenty of points. As a result, it makes sense to identify those who could have a hand in the scoring.
Kelce has to be near the top of the list given the numbers he's put up in the playoffs. The All-Pro tight end has logged at least 100 receiving yards in each of his past four playoff games. However, he was somewhat hampered in Kansas City's Week 5 meeting as Buffalo held him to 57 receiving yards.
Since we have eight legs on our card, I like the idea of grabbing a bit of security by playing an alternate line that would need just 50 yards to be graded as a win.
Josh Allen 40+ Alt Rushing Yards (-210)
The Bills ended the 2020 season ranked 21st offensively in Football Outsiders' run DVOA. They're currently ranked fourth in that category this season heading into Sunday's game.
Improving the running game was a core focus of the Bills in the offseason as they drafted offensive tackle Spencer Brown out of Northern Iowa with the 93rd overall pick. Brown has undoubtedly been an asset to the team as Buffalo has shown a more significant commitment to running the ball.
We've seen that commitment manifested at the quarterback position as Allen has logged 20 more rushing attempts during the regular season than in the previous season. His productivity has been outstanding as he rushed for 763 yards while averaging 6.3 yards per carrying.
It won't surprise me if the Bills try to sustain long drives to control the football, just as they did against the Patriots. Allen scampered for 66 yards in the game and rushed for 59 yards against the Chiefs during the regular season. For the Bills to have a chance, they'll need to take advantage of his legs against this Chiefs defense.
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (-120)
Kelce has caught at least one touchdown in each of his past four games. He has five touchdowns in his past three games against Buffalo, with at least one score in each of them.
His immense size creates matchup problems for opposing teams inside the red zone. He's well worth a look as a possible addition to any card.
Tyreek Hill 50+ Alt Receiving Yards (-340)
I loved fading Hill's prop of 70.5 receiving yards in the Wild Card Round. Toward the end of the season, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes said the shifty receiver was "exhausted" in his first game back from COVID protocols.
As a result, it's taken Hill a few weeks to get his legs under him. However, I think he's getting back closer to form after logging 57 receiving yards against the Steelers.
Gabriel Davis 25+ Alt Receiving Yards (-250)
Davis has been a steady hand for the Bills this season. The second-year player has logged at least 25 receiving yards in each of his past nine games. This is a no-brainer to add to our ticket, so I'm not going to overthink this one.
Byron Pringle 25+ Alt Receiving Yards (-192)
Like Davis, Pringle has emerged as a quality option in the passing game. Mahomes has shown more trust in the third-year player as he's been targeted at least four times in his past five games. Pringle's also logged at least 25 receiving yards in four straight games.
Stefon Diggs 50+ Alt Receiving Yards (-275)
If we expect Buffalo to put up some points, we'd have to figure that Diggs will have at least some involvement. In his past four games, the Pro Bowl wide receiver has logged at least 50 receiving yards. In the big games, you need to rely on your star players. I think Diggs shows up on Sunday night.
Bills +3.5 Alt Spread (-165)
I'm buying the Bills on the alternate spread up to +3.5 for a bit more protection with the hook. Feel free to check out my preview for a more detailed explanation of why I'm backing the Bills as a side.
