The public is all-in on A.J. Brown tonight for Monday Night Football's Commanders vs. Eagles.
While Washington has the 11th-best pass defense, according to DVOA, bettors expect the Eagles' passing attack to stay electric on Monday night.
Plus, bettors love offense – and especially fun characters like Brown.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
Commanders vs. Eagles Most Popular NFL Player Prop Bets
- A.J. Brown to score the first touchdown of the game (+600)
- A.J. Brown to score a touchdown anytime (-105)
- A.J. Brown to record over 71.5 receiving yards (-110)
*Odds and data are according to BetMGM as of Monday afternoon.
Our premier data analytics guru Nick Giffen assessed the value on all these props.
Brown's fair value line to score the first touchdown of the game is around +670. At BetMGM's price of +600, you're losing 1.3% of value by riding this line.
That's not too drastic of a discrepancy. If you were already planning on sweating this one out, this is fine to wager on, but know that this wager is only expected to win about 13% of the time.
Brown's anytime TD line should be priced closer to +128. MGM's price of -105 means this bet loses 7.4% in value from what's fair.
Brown is expected to score a TD 44% of the time. Meanwhile, the line on the market implies the odds of Brown getting in the end zone are 51.4%. Definitely avoid this line.
And our betting models are projecting that Brown records 71.5 yards tonight through the air – the exact amount of his receiving yards prop. You could go either way on the over or under for this wager.
