A.J. Brown, Jalen Hurts and Aaron Jones have the three most popular NFL player prop bets for Sunday Night Football's Packers vs. Eagles.
While Brown is always a popular selection in the props market, Hurts to score a touchdown — even at his inflated price — has been targeted because of Green Bay's fourth-worst rush defense, according to DVOA.
Similarly, Jones' rushing props have been hammered on account of Philadelphia's 26th-best rush defense. Compare that to the Eagles' third-best mark against the pass and you'll see why the public is rocking with the Packers running back tonight.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
Packers vs. Eagles Most Popular NFL Player Prop Bets
- A.J. Brown to score an anytime touchdown (-110)
- Jalen Hurts to score an anytime touchdown (+100)
- Aaron Jones to score an anytime touchdown (+140)
*Odds and data are according to PointsBet as of Sunday afternoon.
One of the Action Network's premier data analytics gurus, Nick Giffen, evaluated the three lines and found the best value on Jones' props.
For Brown's anytime TD prop, the fair value line should really be closer to +151. The Packers are ranked 12th against the run in the NFL compared to 29th against the run. Opponents tend to run the ball against them due to this deficiency.
And while that should benefit Hurts' anytime TD prop, his fair value line is +119. Caesars is pricing his TD prop at +126, which has slight value.
Meanwhile, for Jones, the discrepancy between the Eagles' rush and pass defenses is too much to ignore. While his anytime TD is all right (fair value +132), it's his rush attempt prop that's most worthwhile, Giffen said.
Our models project Jones to rush the ball about 13.6 times on Sunday Night Football. The best price on the market is with DraftKings at o12.5 carries at a vig of -115.
