And we're on to Week 4 of the Alliance of American Football.
To identify any potential "value" in this week's lines, I created our third set of power ratings for all eight AAF teams. We'll use those to estimate a line for each matchup and make some picks below.
Here's what they are as of writing on Thursday:
AAF WEEK 4 POWER RATINGS
San Diego Fleet at Memphis Express
- Spread: San Diego -6
- Over/Under: 41
- Time: 4 p.m. ET on Saturday
- TV: B/R Live
I had this line at Memphis +2.5, so +6 looks like a must-bet.
San Diego is without a doubt the worst 2-1 team in the league, and I think that might have inflated the Fleet's line a bit. They've established themselves as a "middle of the pack" team more than anything.
Mike Martz quickly adjusted to a run-heavy approach the past two games by leaning on running backs Ja'Quan Gardner and Terrell Watson, and it has paid off with two straight wins.
Meanwhile, the Express finally benched Christian Hackenberg for Zach Mettenberger, who threw for two touchdowns in relief and managed to claw Memphis back to only lose by four in Orlando. While that could end up being the best half of football we'll get from Mettenberger all season, it’s safe to say he's an upgrade at the most critical position.
Couple that quarterback change with emerging No. 2 running back Sherman Badie forming a nice backfield committee with Zac Stacy, and we see a Memphis team that's on the rise.
We'll want to cash in on this before the market adjusts. Give me Memphis +6.
The total is spot on here. I had it at 40.4, so I'd pass on this matchup unless we see the line shift three points in either direction and go against the line move.
THE PICK: Memphis +6
Orlando Apollos at Salt Lake Stallions
- Spread: Orlando -4
- Over/Under: 42
- Time: 8 p.m. ET on Saturday
- TV: NFL Network
This line is pretty spot on — I had it at Orlando -3.5.
It's pretty clear to everyone that Orlando is the best team in the league right now. But the Apollos showed a bit of vulnerability last week when they beat the Express by only four points after allowing them to comeback late, falling well short of covering the 16.5 point spread.
Meanwhile, I had pegged Salt Lake as the best 0-2 team in the league last week, and that proved true with an 8-point upset win over Arizona. (Though the Stallions got a bit fortunate that Hotshots star quarterback John Wolford had to leave the game due to injury.)
The Stallions have the defense to keep this close enough to consider taking the points, but I'm going to wait to see if this line gets pushed to +5.5 or further before backing them.
The total is a point lower than my 43.0 rating for this matchup, but I typically look for three-plus points of value on a total before backing it.
I also think that for Salt Lake to keep this close, the Stallions will rely on their stout defense to slow down Orlando's offense and on their 1-2 punch of running backs Joel Bouagnon and Branden Oliver to move the chains.
If you like Orlando and the over, I would take them while you can because I can see these numbers going up. I would even go as far to say that Orlando/over and Salt Lake/under are the correlation in-game parlays for this matchup. I will be waiting for Salt Lake to get to +5.5 or more and for the total to rise to 43 or higher to possibly run a Salt Lake/under parlay.
PICK: Hold for Salt Lake +5.5 (or more); Hold for Under 43 (or higher)
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San Antonio Commanders at Birmingham Iron
- Spread: Birmingham -7
- Over/Under: 37
- Time: 4 p.m. ET on Sunday
- TV: CBS Sports Network
San Antonio was a huge disappointment last week in its 20-point loss in San Diego. As a result, I also have the Commanders as a +7 dog in this matchup against a very complete Iron team.
San Antonio benched Logan Woodside for Marquise Williams late last game and I would likely give the Commanders a slight boost if they announce this move as a permanent one.
One key to success in the AAF so far has been a strong running game. Teams are opting for two or three back committees to move the ball as most teams have been using below-average pocket passers to act as "game managers." So a team needs to unleash a dual-threat quarterback like Williams because I think he’d fair pretty well in this league.
We'll have to wait to see who the Commanders decide to start this week, so for now, I'm passing on a line that seems dead on.
The market has slowly adjusted down from average totals in the 50s Week 1 all the way down to the low 40s in Week 4 after we saw the over go only 1-3 in Week 3. There will be a point where the offenses start to gel a bit more and we see totals start to get an uptick, so it will be key to try to time when that happens.
I’m willing to take a stab at it here.
I have this total rated out at 40.1, which flags this at nearly three points of value. Both teams have been involved in very low-scoring games, but this matchup does pose some value on the over.
San Antonio's defense has looked shaky of late, so Birmingham should be able to move the ball easily with its QB/RB duo of Luis Perez and Trent Richardson. And despite last week's hiccup, San Antonio still has pretty good weapons on offense and should only get better if it decides to give Williams more snaps under center this week.
I'm going to nibble a bit on the over at 37.
PICK: Over 37
Atlanta Legends at Arizona Hotshots
- Spread: Arizona -13.5
- Over/Under: 41.5
- Time: 8 p.m. ET on Sunday
- TV: NFL Network
I'm actually a bit surprised that this line posted while we're still awaiting word on whether John Wolford will play. It appears that he's been practicing and is day-to-day as of writing, so the smart money would be on him starting this Sunday.
Having said that, I would have this line closer to -15.5. If Wolford is ruled out and Arizona turns to Trevor Knight at quarterback, it could be closer to -12.5.
Atlanta is the worst team in the league, and this line will likely climb from now until kickoff, so the time to act is now. Give me Arizona -13.5.
I had graded this matchup as a 41.5 total, so I don’t see value on either side right now. If Wolford is ruled out, I would have this game closer to 39 or 39.5. In the unlikely event that he is ruled out, it’ll be interesting to see how much the market adjusts.
PICK: Arizona -13.5
